Sectional Analysis

EC1

EC1

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I thought this topic might deserve a thread. I will try to do some stuff when we get big meetings..all input appreciated.

I'll bring the Derby post over from that thread.

We can hopefully get a better picture of races run and maybe spot a few horses that might be worth noting for the future
 
EPSOM DERBY MEETING

I'm sure later the question of how fast or slow they went early will crop up..as it did in Sir Percys year :p
these are the sectionals from a few Derbys and yesterdays races over 12f.....

the first figure is the % of time spent in the first split...that is from the start to the road at the bottom of Tattenham Corner about 3.5 furlong out.

Ideally I would like to get a marker in between the start and that path...there are other paths so I might try that to give an even better picture...the first section in this is quite large...but does still tell a story here though.
%..........path.......finish......

71.87% 114.6 159.5 HIGH CHAPPARRAL
72.27% 111.1 153.7 NORTH LIGHT
72.37% 112.0 154.8 AUTHORIZED
73.04% 112.6 154.2 ERHAAB
73.09% 113.8 155.7 MOTIVATOR

73.42% 114.0 155.3 SARISTA
73.57% 114.2 155.2 SIR PERCY
74.05% 117.3 158.4 SEA BIRD
74.12% 116.0 156.5 NEW APPROACH
74.38% 114.0 153.3 GALILEO
74.90% 117.6 157.0 ASK

to give a fair indication of what an even pace should be..the median % is 73.25%..higher than that is slower than even pace..lower is faster.

I've left the slowest one out of calculating the median (Ask) as it is just obviously not representative of anything like even pace and with such a small sample of times it skews the median.

Yesterdays Coronation is highlighted as being very slow in the first section and has the slowest early time here.
The Oaks was slower than even pace which explains Sarista being unable to record a fast overall speed figure.

The highlight looking at this is ...North Light..as he was very near the front of a fast early split and so did well to win his Derby. If you look at Erhaab & High Chapparrals Derbys those that were near the front of fast first section pace dropped back.

Its hard to believe that in North Lights Derby they went faster than Mr Baileys did in Erhaabs Derby in that first split...many believe Mr B went too fast in that race but the splits say he didn't..it was his failure to stay...not going too fast ...that stopped him.

Be interesting to see today splits
 
I've added another marker point in the races where I can see the path at the top of the hill..looks about after they have gone about 5.2f at that point..this shows the early pace in an even clearer light.

1st sect....2nd sect....1st time..2nd time...finish
42.07%..... 71.87%..... 67.1....... 114.6..... 159.5 HIGH CHAPARRAL
43.72%..... 72.27%..... 67.2....... 111.1..... 153.7 NORTH LIGHT
43.93%..... 72.37%..... 68.0 .......112.0..... 154.8 AUTHORIZED
44.32%..... 73.09%..... 69.0....... 113.8..... 155.7 MOTIVATOR
44.56%..... 73.42%..... 69.2....... 114.0..... 155.3 SARISTA
44.59%..... 73.57%..... 69.2....... 114.2..... 155.2 SIR PERCY
44.60%..... 74.12%..... 69.8....... 116.0..... 156.5 NEW APPROACH
45.01%..... 74.38%..... 69.0....... 114.0..... 153.3 GALILEO
46.57%..... 74.65%..... 73.0....... 117.0..... 156.7 SEA THE STARS
46.50%..... 74.90%..... 73.0....... 117.6..... 157.0 ASK

the median or even pace for the 1st sect is 44.44%...the 2nd sect is 73.25%..I've ignored the Derby and Coronation when calculating that as they are so poor...with such a small sample the median isn't strong enough to remove their influence.

This shows that the Derby leaders ran even slower early on than the Coronation leaders did for the first 5f...a complete dawdle compared to every other race here.

Because both of the days had really similar going conditions its possible to measure one race against the other without adjusting for going...also.. apart from now knowing how fast the leaders went.. by checking how far back at each section each horse is ...we can estimate just how well each winner did.

The sectionals for each winner are:

Sariska: 70.2/114.6/155.3
Sea The Stars: 74.0/118.0/156.7
Ask: 73.5/118.0/157.0

The really interesting comparison is between Ask and Sea The Stars..both have very similar sectionals and both hit the straight in 118.0 seconds each. Sea The Stars then ran the last section 0.3 seconds faster than Ask.

The logical concusion is that STS would have beaten Ask by 1.5 lengths..Ask is a OHR 119 horse...which makes STS a OHR 122 horse....a 127 horse if you use RPR's..as Ask is a 124 RPR horse.

This highlights how useful these splits are..the overall time speed figure for STS is poor...I only got a 90 speed figure for him....but the splits show that the Derby is a decent race because when STS and those behind meet their elders they will be receiving a stone this month and bit less next month.

At this time of year ..on the clock... a 3yo is about 0.40 seconds per mile below maturity...0.6 at 12f...so you can add another 3 lengths to STS's rating here which puts him on 126/127 for his win here....add to that.. how much more was in the tank?..he is a serious horse I reckon. If you look at how hard driven Ask was compared to STS in the straight..and STS still ran it faster..is pretty impressive imo.

these sectionals are pretty useful..to be able to compare the Oaks winner would require more data though..measuring the rate of reduction in speed compared to the early use would require more work..we have been lucky here that Ask was a near identical fit at the splits to STS.
 
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The logical concusion is that STS would have beaten Ask by 1.5 lengths..Ask is a 119 horse...which makes STS a 122 horse.
Click to expand...

That's not including the 15lbs of weight-for-age that Sea The Stars would get in a race with Ask, right?

Edit: no worries, seen your edit.
 
yes Gareth

thats why I don't add WFA in lbs in realtion to this..I prefer to ad the actual time difference that I know from checking past results is more near reality

if you add 15lbs it overates the 3yo imo...because imo its too much and is why when the KG was in its heyday the 3yo did have about 7lbs advantage

if STS ran in the KG it would pee in I reckon receiving ..is it 12lbs by then?
 
have just sat and watched the race again..can't believe how easily he has won this...he really is a rolls royce

I think we have the real deal here
 
This is probably an argument for another thread but the wfa scale tends to work out pretty accurately, I think, in the big all-age G1s.

I think it is highly dangerous to assume Sea The Stars would win the King George by 8 lengths just because it was receiving 12lbs from an older horse of equal merit.
 
I agree its contentious DO

but I think adding 15lb to a 3yo is far too much in a rating sense...if the sectionals are telling a fair story then its clear that STS is 3 or 4lb better than a 119 mature horse at this time..adding 15lb makes him a mid 130's horse which wouldn't tie in with the 2nd 3rd & 4th horse really..or any reality

its one reason why I really value the time difference rather than weight as said

the WFA scale belongs to handicapping...to try and equal three age groups...adding it to speed figures is not correct..imo..I have never done it because they are time figures and time differences between age groups are more relevant than weights. My research shows me that in pure time difference a 3yo is 0.6 seconds from maturity over 12f in June...it makes more sense for me that way.
 
A request..............Would anyone have a form book for Sharastani's year?..I would love to put some sectionals on Dancing Brave's performance whilst looking at these other ones.

if anyone has the results could you post the times for each race that day with race type and value of race for the handicaps..should be able to make some speed ratings for the card then and find the going allowance out..do that for all the Derbies I have video of then each time can be compared like with like...it should then be possible to calculate the early pace effect on late pace.
 
2.00 6f £4643 Mr Eats 2 8-6 by 3l 1m10.87s 7ran

2.30 5f £7713 Clantime 5 9-0 by 0.75l 56.09s 16ran

3.30 12f £239260 Shahrastani 3 9-0 by 0.5l 2m37.13s 17ran

4.20 10f £10191 Gay Captain 4 8-7 by hd 2m7.41s 15ran

4.50 8.5f £5663 Empire Blue 3 9-0 by 2l 1m45.53s 11ran

5.20 7f £7518 Maazi 5 8-0 by 2l 1m23.05s 9ran
 
The first race was the Woodcote. The second, fourth and sixth were handicaps (0-70 but the scale was different then) and the fifth was, believe it or not, a claimer.
 
EC1, I really appreciate what you're doing and saying. However, comparing times of different races, while being very informative, can also be very misleading. I think it's important always to keep in mind that your findings will always be theoretical. Only when the different animals meet in the flesh in races run truly will we know the truth.

If Ask and Sea The Stars raced against each other in a slowly run race, it is entirely possible the latter could win by three lengths at level weights, but it remains conjecture and doesn't necessarily prove the true ability of either, jsut as yesterday's race doesn't necessarily prove the true ability of any of the horses.

If they met at level weights this July, I'd expect Ask to give Sea The Stars a fair beating, because events have proved the wfa scale to be pretty accurate.

But this is a great thread. Thanks for starting it and keeping it going.

Oh, and don't forget, your analysis doesn't take into account the different ground conditions on any day. A going allowance difference of 0.2s per furlong between races amounts to a length per furlong - 12 lengths for the Derby - yet the ground might have the same description.
 
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It's interesting how similar the two brothers' Derbys have been run:

Based on EC1s numbers above, it works out as:

Code: 
		S1	S2	S3
Galileo		45%	29%	26%
Sea The Stars	47%	28%	25%

Compared to, say, High Chaparral's Derby where the field were smashed apart by the fast early pace which eventually told as he and Hawk Wing ran their guts out all the way up the straight.

Code: 
		S1	S2	S3
High Chaparral	42%	26%	32%
 
The going is only relevant when comparing actual times DO, by using % of race time its possible to compare pace without recourse to going. Thats why all of them correlate in spotting slow early.

The next stage is to work on times only..which I will need to going correct as you say-

the comparison between Ask and STS was on virtually the same going give or take a lb or 2 per mile.

Gus

That card was easier to time rate than many..every race fits perfectly :cool:

I get the going that day as Good-Good-Soft...what is interesting is that the the Derby won by Shahrastani was not a fast overall time figure..112...this is particularly interesting when viewing Dancing Brave..who was held up in what must have been a slow early pace and yet managed to come from all that way back..

when people say that Erhaab came from further back than DB and still won..they are omitting the fact that the race was run to help Erhaab do just that....whereas DB defied the slow pace and just failed...he must have had incredible speed..which of course we know now he had.

The scale in those days was 0-100..they stuck 40lbs on top when they changed it...those hcaps were 0-110 on todays scale.

I'll go away and work on all of these and going correct all the times..should be an interesting outcome hopefully
 
EC1 said:
The going is only relevant when comparing actual times DO, by using % of race time its possible to compare pace without recourse to going. Thats why all of them correlate in spotting slow early.
Click to expand...

Point taken.

EC1 said:
the comparison between Ask and STS was on virtually the same going give or take a lb or 2 per mile..
Click to expand...

I'll check in detail later in the week and post my going allowances for the two days. I suspect there will be a fair difference between the two, almost certainly a lot more than a pound or two per mile - more like a pound or two per furlong, but we'll see.

EC1 said:
The scale in those days was 0-100..they stuck 40lbs on top when they changed it...those hcaps were 0-110 on todays scale.
Click to expand...
I think they put the scale up to 126 but I'm willing to be corrected. If anyone can tell us which year (and ideally which month, if it was mid-season) I can compare the figures from my old form books. Also, the flat-rated, so to speak all the top horses on 120 for a number of years, didn't they?

Thanks for the replies, EC1. Appreciated.
 
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Also, EC, from playing around with Google Earth and assuming I've picked up the same roads as you, the distances where they occur at:

1108y
1895y

So the individual sectionals are:

1108y
787y
755y

Which, expressed as percentages of the entire distance (2650y) are:

42%
30%
28%

Of the races you've looked at, I'd say North Light and Authorized are the closest to "optimal".
 
I'll be interested to see what GA'a you get DO for the two days..and you too Warbler..I must admit I found both cards quite difficult to rate..if you both come up with a difference I'll build it in..I've just gone through most of them and time corrected for going....the GA only has to be changed on the spreadsheet to adjust so its easy enough to change

Gareth

I never thought of doing the google earth stuff..thats an interesting idea by splitting the distances into % as well. The only ? over using them as ideal splits is that at the start of the race they will naturally spend a little more % in the early split due to the standing start. The ideal measure of even pace would appear to be to have quite a few real races and get a median figure I would imagine..the medians I have up to press won't be far out..and at this stage those that are very slow are easy to spot and leave out.

The times listed are for the leaders in those races..in Authorized race for instance the leader went off very fast and Authorized was way back..similarily in High Chapparals race ...which is the fastest early split the ...leader went hell for leather according to the RP report.

I'll post all the actual times with going correction for each winner probably tomorrow...from those figures we need to calculate how energy used early affects energy remaining...I will be needing some input on this..there are a few ways I can think of but whether they make sense I'm not sure.

The distances I used for adjusting going allowance adjustments are mirrored in those yardages you got off GE..I used 5f and 8.5

Ideally I will get some more races..more data the better
 
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I'm not sure about the 120 top horse DO

I remember asking for some times for Dancing Braves 2000 guineas day when I posted on TRF..Alan Potts told me the scale then and I think 0-70 was the highest handicap..which are 110 tops now.

I'm pretty sure that for years the scale was 0-100 with 100 being the best horses..which seems right if they had 70 for the top handicappers

when it changed I think it only changed once to the 0-140 scale..can't be sure..memory plays tricks now :p

if you search on TRF for Dancing Brave it might come up...I couldn't make head nor tale of the times when I tried to speed rate that meeting either
 
I've hit a snag with rating DB's Derby, the video on youtube is either running fast or is missing a section:mad:..it times at about 5 seconds too quick overall...I thought the sectionals were bloody quick :lol:...

I have found Nijinskys Derby though:cool:...which would be an interesting addition...this project is for current stuff but I just can't help getting drawn into throwing these big ones in.

Gus...could you do me a big favour and post the race times as you did before for the day Nijinsky won?

I'm getting all the winners sectionals sorted with teh going standardised to Good...once we model the race we should be able to graph the early/late pace effect..we should be able to put decent measures of ability on each one

After that analysing the first 5 home in this years Derby should be interesting to see if there are any pointers to the future
 
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