Sizing Europe - Anyone "in The Know"

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Why Clivex.

What part of the quote do you not understand?

Surely it cannot tax even a brain as challenged as yours?
 
Having an opinion on what a horse might do in the future is now aftertiming?

Am I meant to just shut up when a moderator challenges my position?
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If I wanted you to shut up I wouldn't be arguing your points. That's what forums are for. Don't be so precious.

I would suggest the belief in SE as a true champion for many at present is based upon the media coverage and the price contracting with the bookmakers. That is a bandwagon effect.
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And nothing at all to do with him winning one of the major trials by 8 lengths from two horses who... oh never mind.
 
stated that the people arguing SE is still value at 5/2 should have been shouting his name from the rooftops when his price was longer
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Bobbyjo, I have never stated that it is not permitted for one to change their opinion of a horse based upon an apparent significant improvement in form
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:what:
 
No Gareth, its not aftertiming. But stating a detailed case for why he is the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle once he is installed as 5/2 fav rather than when he was say 8/1 (Osana's franking of the form in destroying Katchit ring any bells?) is tantamount to aftertiming - ie. coming on board when the world and his wife thinks he's gonna win as oppposed to when he might have been a half decent each way price.

I dont want to go over old ground, but I have made clear the value I place in his 8 length defeat of Hardy and Al Eile.

I am glad you agree that forums are for healthy debate, and acknowledge your part in drilling the debate down into high levels of detail. I object to other forumites making snide remarks about me defending what is a very unpopular view within this platform. Although I do understand Clivex can only cope with words of one syllable and one sentence per post.
 
Clivex, bless you, you really are finding this hard aren't you.

Read the two sentences. They are totally unrelated. One questions the value in a horse's current price. The other states, accurately, that I have never suggested one cannot amend their view of a horse's chances.

Typically you come in half way (sensing I am on the back foot for the first time on this site) and make a buffoon of yourself.
 
QUOTE
stated that the people arguing SE is still value at 5/2 should have been shouting his name from the rooftops when his price was longer



QUOTE

Bobbyjo, I have never stated that it is not permitted for one to change their opinion of a horse based upon an apparent significant improvement in form
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Unrelated?

One questions the value in a horse's current price. The other states, accurately, that I have never suggested one cannot amend their view of a horse's chances.
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Chance has nothing to do with price then?


This is getting silly now...im off
 
If you take the four championship races at Chelthenham then Sizing Europe is the longest priced favourite on offer. Given that the field clearly lacks the strength in depth of previous years, or when compared with something like the Gold Cup field, I feel that this is particularly pertinent.

FWIW, I do have some reservations about Sizing Europe that mainly stem from the fact that wide-margin soft-ground winners in January don't always cross the line first come the middle of March. However 9/4 isn't a price that tempts me to get involved against him.

If though there really was a bandwagon-effect in progress and he was say odds-on, then it might be a different matter.
 
No Gareth, its not aftertiming. But stating a detailed case for why he is the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle once he is installed as 5/2 fav rather than when he was say 8/1 (Osana's franking of the form in destroying Katchit ring any bells?) is tantamount to aftertiming - ie. coming on board when the world and his wife thinks he's gonna win as oppposed to when he might have been a half decent each way price.
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My motive in arguing that was little to do with SE's price or any bandwagon, and everything to do with what I consider to be some very weak reasons that you were putting up in order to crab the form of Sunday's race.

I'm honestly surprised you didn't just bring up Louanas...
 
You could say that Colin.

Just as well Gareth that I didn't say "oh this is silly I am off now" halfway through yesterday afternoon otherwise we wouldn' thave had the fun we have both had debating the Champion Hurdle!

I don't think there was much point in bringing in Lounaos - I laid that one in the Triumph last season in not dissimilar circumstances to this scenario - I was on Betfair then and eveyone though she couldn't be beaten.

I came at the debate from the viewpoint of "is SE a worthy 5/2 shot". To answer this I had to look at the form of the AIG and then the refer back to the Greatwood.

You may think my reasons are weak, I do not and have put my money where my mouth is.

If I am wrong I will take it on the chin, and come on here to congratulate those of you who are "on" at whatever price.

If I am right I will probably refrain from posting for a few days as I am never one to gloat!
 
This thread reminds me of another juvenile individual who came and did nothing except argue and cause trouble-----after a few days the moderator copped it and he was barred.
 
SE a worthy 5/2 shot

imho he will be on the day, I wouldn't want to risk him not running

there would have been little point shouting him from the rooftops BEFORE the improvement was shown though would there?

i'm totally confused why not foreseeing a horse's improvement is a negative trait.
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 1 2008, 05:25 PM
For the record: The bandwagon effect, also known as social proof and closely related to opportunism, is the observation that people often do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same.
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Have you ever thought there might just be a reason behind this "bandwagon" useful? Perhaps there might even be a reason that a large number of people have come to the same conclusion?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're position can be summed up as follows: While Sizing Europe was impressive at Leopardstown, you don't rate the form, as all he beat was a rapidly declining Hardy Eustace and a horse proven short of top class. Thus, the shortening of Sizing Europe to 5/2 is a massive market overeaction.

Fine. You're of course perfectly entitled to your view. In fact, lay until your heart's content. But please, spare us the "bandwagon"-type shite...
 
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