Spreads, System(atic) Betting & Staking Plans

N

NumberCruncher

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I’ve been enjoying reading the various threads here for while, but my lack of knowledge of horse racing prevents me from contributing. So thought I’d start a new thread on something I do know about to see if there is wider interest in it.

My aim is simply to produce a profitable system, preferably one that works on all types and classes of race, in an effort to bring on early retirement (as well as to generate a little income to improve lifestyle following retirement). To do that I believe you’d need to factor in all the elements included here. Finding the right betting medium (which for me is the spreadbetting matchbets), combining that with a good selection process or system and then finally applying the right staking plan.

I’ll post here how I’m going about it, and while I won’t include the actual criteria I’m using to generate the system, I will post the system generated selections and the results using the chosen staking plan.

To head off any concerns on ulterior motives, I will not be looking to sell any ‘systems’ or staking plan data. I do have a number of spreadsheet versions of the staking plan I use that cover fixed odds betting, plus versions for the exchanges that take account of commission (for backing and laying). Happy to share those free of charge subject to prior agreement from the moderators.

I’m hoping that if the thread does generate some interest, some of you will make observations based on your experience that will feed into improvements in my methods. If anyone else has similar processes or approaches, feel free to post details here.
 
System(atic) Betting

My theory is that those of us with little knowledge of horse racing should be able to use rating services to produce a short list of candidates for backing. I did something similar with the Adrian Massey ratings around 20 years ago, and while it wasn’t consistent enough to profit long term from fixed odds betting, I did do enough to have one account closed and have limits put on my stakes from another. Once I turned to spreadbets, the profits increased and issues with betting firms went away.

I had significant help from a couple of people using the forum I posted to at the time, and should credit them in case they are still around and posting! First was Mlmrob who gave me some insight into how he used the ratings (and his Massey calculation forms one of the criteria I’ve applied to the ratings I’ve recently signed up to). The other posted under the name MrFox, and he was a spreadsheet genius that automated my selection process for me (as well as being the creator of the staking plan I use).
 
Adrian Massey’s site provided access to all the historic ratings, so it was relatively easy to apply a set of criteria to a wide range of races and work out if the process would have been successful over those years. I haven’t got that with the new ratings, so my sample size to work with is very small. I’ve been collecting data since 1st November and manipulating it to create my own elements, then monitoring the results of different combinations of data.

I’ve been spending this weekend updating spreadsheets to automate the process, and have found some errors in my previous (manual) process, so the actual results to-date may turn out to be a little different from what I currently have!! But to illustrate, I segregate results into classes and age ranges, and the manually produced handicap chase selections would look like this.

1736671358650.png

I’ll post more on spread betting and the staking plan later, and will start posting selections as soon as I’ve finished updating all my previous records and analysed the actual results.
 
First, why use the spread markets? One of the major reasons is you can both back (buy) and lay (sell). They make (most of) their money from the spread in the middle and need to attract people on both sides to produce a balanced book.

They offer the usual win and place markets (100 and 50 Index), and will have a fixed odds sports book as well.

Looking at the first race at Punchestown, you can do a matchbet between Shantou Princess and Brucejack (spread is 1-2.5), or back or lay any horse for the win in the 100 Index (spread for Shantou Princess is currently 30.7-40) or for the place in the 50 Index (Shantou Princess currently 23-26).

There are quite a few exotic bets as well (e.g. multi mules), where the profits or losses can quickly mount up, so you do need to be a little careful with chosen markets.

This link offers explanations on spread betting in general, though the comparisons they make are not necessarily like for like on the staking front

What Is Sports Spread Betting | Spreadex | The Spread Experts
 
Look forward to seeing how you go with this. Couple of blasts from the past there Adrian massey ratings back in the day. MLM Rob is also a blast from the past he and his ratings appeared on a small forum I was involved with some years ago and I believe a couple of lads from there helped him with speed rating elements. I'm talking maybe 20 years ago now. He seemed a real good guy so you're keeping good company. I'm taking it it's something like uk betting forum as another shrewdy I know posts on there and has suggested I go over to that platform and post some bits for a while but tbh what I'm posting these days isn't worth it as I'm just simply not putting in the required effort to be of any use.

I will watch on with great interest NC and best of luck to you in your venture for early retirement.
 
Sounds like our paths may have crossed before, I was posting as Snipes to a couple of forums between 2005 and 2010. I did subscribe to Rob's ratings in 2009, but couldn't face the prospect of starting completely from scratch when Adrian stopped producing his ratings. The kids were quite young at the time, and I'd already spent far too many hours researching Adrian's ratings.

Some of the others on the main forum I used (which was puntersmate) that you may have come across were Col, Jim, Matt, Harry, Placewinner, all people I was happy to blindly follow.
 
Can't say as it rings any bells i was exclusively just involved on a very small forum called Ohracing run by Jamie Taylor. A small bunch, some brilliant punters and I owe a hell of a lot to all the members of the forum at that time as it helped me through a difficult period of my life and also taught me so much about racing and the things i learned from those lads were responsible for me winning some good sums and giving me a half decent set up in life.
 
Records now fully updated and I have a target area identified. I'm basically monitoring a range of selection criteria and differences in values for specific data items and calculations. This chart shows the number ranges down the side, and the classes across the top. The area highlighted seems to give a consistent return, so class 4-6 Handicaps will be the focus for me initially. I should note that this is on a very small sample size (some of these have just a single entry), and my area for focus may shift once there is more data to go on.

1736768027413.png
 
Todays selections are:

Lingfield
12.30 - Frankies Dream / Sunny Time - Buy @ 1.5 (Sporting Index)
15.00 - Aneedah Hero / Perfect Parole - Sell @ -0.5 (Sporting Index)
16.00 - Masqool / Time Tested - Buy @ 1.75 (Sporting Index)

Same spreads are available at Spreadex
 
I remember Massey forum, didn't it become Maria's forum and eventually implode?

A few of the names mentioned I also remember from various places years ago.

Wish you all the best in your quest for long term profits, best I can achieve is to break even!

Will follow with interest.
 
Thanks walsworth. I didn't actually post on the Massey forum, but yes Maria did take it over.

Any profits here will depend on the quality and consistency of the ratings, and that I have no control over!

One more for today, 20.00 Wolverhampton - Amaysmont / Autumn Rose - Buy at 1.00 (Sporting Index)
 
I'll post a bit more about the rising floor staking plan once I have a few days selections to refer to.

Just to give an example to start, I've produced the results of the Class 4-6 handicaps that fall into my selection criteria. Don't get caught up in the numbers, they're bound to be good as I've picked out a trend based on winners.

The graph below is what the spreadsheet produces. The yellow dots are each of the bets, the green dotted line is the bank floor (hopefully rising as you progress), and the green bars are the percentage stake. The difference between this and a standard bank is that when the yellow dots fall below the dotted green line, the stakes increase a little to aid recovery. There is a reset point to stop you going too far, and I've got that set at 85%.

1736782737742.png

There's not too much difference between RFSP and normal bank in this case, as there aren't many bets below the floor, but I'm expecting a lot more in this trial, and will publish figures based on level stakes, normal bank and the RFSP as I progress. Level stakes of £25 on each selection would have returned a profit of £353.06, normal bank adjusted to 2.5% of £1,000 starting bank at end of each day works out at £411.57 and the RFSP is £425.83
 
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