I thought I would start a thread for the other races taking place over the next four days and give my thoughts and bets on a couple of todays more interesting races.
15.10 Conditions Stakes
Twice Over is bound to go off favourite as he has by far the best form in the book. However, I think his best form is actually over a mile and he has run in some hard races this season and I am going to pass him over in favour of something less exposed and at a better price.
King's Gambit is difficult to weigh up and his run in the york stakes would give him a shout in this but he will have to give weight to the unexposed horses in the field and he looks a less likely winner than Twice Over. Similarly sweet lilly is capable of winning a fillies listed race but this looks tougher and she has to concede weight to the 3yo colts.
Which leaves the two at the bottom. Godolphin's entry Chock A Block was bought from France and was backed on his debut in the cocked hat where he was well beaten into last. It's is difficult to know if that was lack of fitness, an injury or he just did not stay. His pedigree suggests the last of these is unlikely therefore because of the time he has had off since I would assume it was niggle or injury that kept him off the track. I'm not a fan of horses coming back off a layoff, particularly with Godolphin so i'm going to overlook him in favour of Paul Cole's Serva Jugum. His latest run was encouraging and if he has come on for that run the weight concession from Twice Over makes this a pretty level contest on the ratings. Therefore, given the prices and Twice Over's busy season i'll be having a win bet on Serva Jugum.
15.45 Scarborough Stakes (Listed)
This looks a really competitive little heat and not one I will be having much interest in but one I will certainly watch with interest.
The two I like are Moorhouse Lad and Above Limits.
Moorhouse lad is a fast ground horse who has shown a decent level of form at this time of the year in the past (Second in last years much vaunted Abbaye is testament to that). Bryan Smart's horses are hitting form and the likely strong pace coming from Siren's Gift and Inxile should help. The quick ground will also be in his favour.
Above Limits is an interesting entry and as a 2yo filly gets masses of weight off her rivals. Two main reasons I like this filly. 1) The form of her last race is really decent. Shamandar followed up in good style next time out and I think Sand Vixen is a sprinter of the future and a horse to follow 2) Being owned by Findlay and Bloom they are shrewd enough to ony run this filly if they think she has a real decent chance (Surely Dascombe wouldn't run her either). 5f on quick ground looks absolutely ideal and she has a decent enough pilot to make the lightweight count. She rates a decent e/w bet at 16/1.
Moorhouse Lad 1pt Win
Above Limits 1pt E/w
15.10 Conditions Stakes
Twice Over is bound to go off favourite as he has by far the best form in the book. However, I think his best form is actually over a mile and he has run in some hard races this season and I am going to pass him over in favour of something less exposed and at a better price.
King's Gambit is difficult to weigh up and his run in the york stakes would give him a shout in this but he will have to give weight to the unexposed horses in the field and he looks a less likely winner than Twice Over. Similarly sweet lilly is capable of winning a fillies listed race but this looks tougher and she has to concede weight to the 3yo colts.
Which leaves the two at the bottom. Godolphin's entry Chock A Block was bought from France and was backed on his debut in the cocked hat where he was well beaten into last. It's is difficult to know if that was lack of fitness, an injury or he just did not stay. His pedigree suggests the last of these is unlikely therefore because of the time he has had off since I would assume it was niggle or injury that kept him off the track. I'm not a fan of horses coming back off a layoff, particularly with Godolphin so i'm going to overlook him in favour of Paul Cole's Serva Jugum. His latest run was encouraging and if he has come on for that run the weight concession from Twice Over makes this a pretty level contest on the ratings. Therefore, given the prices and Twice Over's busy season i'll be having a win bet on Serva Jugum.
15.45 Scarborough Stakes (Listed)
This looks a really competitive little heat and not one I will be having much interest in but one I will certainly watch with interest.
The two I like are Moorhouse Lad and Above Limits.
Moorhouse lad is a fast ground horse who has shown a decent level of form at this time of the year in the past (Second in last years much vaunted Abbaye is testament to that). Bryan Smart's horses are hitting form and the likely strong pace coming from Siren's Gift and Inxile should help. The quick ground will also be in his favour.
Above Limits is an interesting entry and as a 2yo filly gets masses of weight off her rivals. Two main reasons I like this filly. 1) The form of her last race is really decent. Shamandar followed up in good style next time out and I think Sand Vixen is a sprinter of the future and a horse to follow 2) Being owned by Findlay and Bloom they are shrewd enough to ony run this filly if they think she has a real decent chance (Surely Dascombe wouldn't run her either). 5f on quick ground looks absolutely ideal and she has a decent enough pilot to make the lightweight count. She rates a decent e/w bet at 16/1.
Moorhouse Lad 1pt Win
Above Limits 1pt E/w
