Stewards Cup 2025.

[Robicheaux]

Dual winner Commanche Falls, appeals at 66/1 7 places ( Skybet ).
Probably on the downgrade, but as recently as last August, he ran likely fav Elmonjed to a length at the Ebor meeting + is something like 21lb better off. Don't think the ground matters to the old boy.

 

[Desert Orchid]

My figures (BOs as they were on Thursday):



I could back a dozen in this and not be confident of finding the winner between how the ground is this week and how my luck is going. I’m just going to make 130 my target figure and hope one of the following can hit or beat it. Twilight Calls, Vadream and Commanche Falls, all of which are huge prices on their best form. I’ll cover them all with Get It which has impressed me this year and it might just have too much speed for them to get to him in time regardless of what the handicapping is saying.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

I'm having a saver on Saint Lawrence today, DO. Have you given up on him?

 

[Ian_Davies]

One's "Stewfolio:" Apollo One, Purosangue, Twilight Jet, Get It, and Hammer The Hammer.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm having a saver on Saint Lawrence today, DO. Have you given up on him?

Pretty much. At Ascot he was top(-ish - can't remember exactly and can't be arsed checking back) but that's not the case here, plus he showed nothing at Ascot. He might come back on to my radar for Ayr, which is the race I think Jordan Electrics is targeting.

(JE is a local company and their vans are often seen around these parts.)

 

[Outsider]

P

I'm having a saver on Saint Lawrence today, DO. Have you given up on him?

I'm on him Mart.i haven't given up on him.

 

[Outsider]

I agree with Maurice about backing a dozen and not getting the winner.0
I still think Strike Red can win if his high draw isn't a problem.
I have backed Twilight calls every time he's run this season and last.i don't think this course will suit but what do I know.
Nice to see him Saint lawrence and korker up at the top of DOs rating.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I hate saying things like this but there's something suspicious about those Spencer horses running so well, especially with the winner so well backed on the day. It was 18/1 on Thursday and that looked skinny to me.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I hate saying things like this but there's something suspicious about those Spencer horses running so well, especially with the winner so well backed on the day. It was 18/1 on Thursday and that looked skinny to me.

It had won last time out (last Saturday) and run a career best, ffs, Maurice!

I didn't back it, but I haven't got an issue with it winning either - progressive 4yo.

The only thing I got right on the race was saying a Stands' side draw was nothing to be afraid of.

 

[Desijo]

Dual winner Commanche Falls, appeals at 66/1 7 places ( Skybet ).
Probably on the downgrade, but as recently as last August, he ran likely fav Elmonjed to a length at the Ebor meeting + is something like 21lb better off. Don't think the ground matters to the old boy.

Managed to get 7th
Place money landed
Well done

 

[Robicheaux]

Dual winner Commanche Falls, appeals at 66/1 7 places ( Skybet ).
Probably on the downgrade, but as recently as last August, he ran likely fav Elmonjed to a length at the Ebor meeting + is something like 21lb better off. Don't think the ground matters to the old boy.

Hung on for 7th, to get me a bit of profit.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I do know its form, Ian, but between being 6lbs higher and dropping back to a trip over which it had never won, it looked well up against it to me.

I can understand Twilight Calls running so well because of its back class and Run Boy Run was an obvious improver in a first-time visor so that run didn't surprise me but the winner stinks.

This is the field ordered by RPRs and on them he had it all to do as well.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I do know its form, Ian.

I never doubted that for one nanosecond. Maurice, and apologies if it seemed otherwise.

I wasn't on it, it was up the weights and dropping to a fast six from a stiff seven, but it's only a 4yo, it's progressive and bang in form.

It's hardly the biggest shock in the world.

Yes, the price collapse is definitely eye catching, but isn't that so often the case in these big handicaps nowadays, especially if the big data models gets involved at the death.

 

[barjon]

I thought William Haggas comment was quite interesting when talking about Elmonjed earlier on. He said something along the lines of weight not mattering all that much * and that what really matters is whether the horse is ready. Having won earlier his point was that it was ready and Two Tribes was in the same boat.

* in sprints

 

[Desert Orchid]

I can't see how any data model could have come up with that.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Classic looks interesting now after his neck second to Two Tribes last week. He's entered in a 1M handicap at York later this month.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Two Tribes has finished fourth and fifth so many times. Either they've finally found the key to him or something else has been going on I reckon. I'd like to think the former was true, but I also see where Maurice is coming from.

Perhaps Yorick, one of, if not his biggest fan on here can enlighten us.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I thought William Haggas comment was quite interesting when talking about Elmonjed earlier on. He said something along the lines of weight not mattering all that much and that what really matters is whether the horse is ready. Having so earlier his point was that it was ready and Two Tribes was in the same boat.

If Elmonjed had won it would have been no surprise at all. The only thing it and the winner had in common is that they won last week. If that was a significant issue past winners would have been easy to find.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I can't see how any data model could have come up with that.

Depends on how the model is programmed - if it uses the evidently-underrated Frankie Goes To Hollywood factor it'd have been all over it.

 

[barjon]

If Elmonjed had won it would have been no surprise at all. The only thing it and the winner had in common is that they won last week. If that was a significant issue past winners would have been easy to find.

It was in response to a question about weight today. The fact that it had won only recent was to make the point that he thought it ready today. Others who hadn’t won recently might be just as ready, so just looking for recent winners isn’t necessarily the answer. For me, his main point of interest was that weight in sprints didn’t matter all that much compared to readiness.

 

[yorick]

Two Tribes has finished fourth and fifth so many times. Either they've finally found the key to him or something else has been going on I reckon. I'd like to think the former was true, but I also see where Maurice is coming from.

Perhaps Yorick, one of, if not his biggest fan on here can enlighten us.

Well, as usual, I'm gobsmacked. My notebook comments on TT were thus:

Two Tribes

14/05/25 York Cl 2 6f h/cap Good To Firm OR 90
It looked like this one might be one to keep an eye on after his 3yo autumn form.

Here, he was languishing right at the back but the jockey was riding rather than under pressure. Come the final furlong, he found his wind and fairly shot home. I’m not sure today was the plan and I wonder if the Wokingham might be on the agenda.

They’re running him over 7f when I think 6f is the call. He runs well at York and put in a great performance when 2nd in last year’s Silver Cup.

This can win a valuable h/cap over 6f. Silver Cup, Gold Cup, Stewards.

I backed him when he won over 7f as an insurance bet and was delighted and surprised he won. Having got that victory over 7f, I thought, then, that 7f is the trip so was loath to back him today. I was on the third.

Shouldn't grumble, I suppose since TT won for me at 25/1 lto and Jakajaro was placed today at 16's.

It's true that some horses do improve once they get their head in front.

 

[Slim]

Isn't this just another good reason to throw RPR in the bin?

He'd had 16 turf runs before today, and in his last five starts was sent off 5/1 favourite, 6/1, 5/2 favourite, 6/1, and 25/1 when winning last week.

I can only assume the odds compilers felt fair game putting him in at 20/1 because he was 0/10 over 6f.

It's a strange one to pin down, but it's at least worth asking: why was he sent off that price? It feels like the perfect example of a 'model' horse.

 

[Slim]

Well, as usual, I'm gobsmacked. My notebook comments on TT were thus:



I backed him when he won over 7f as an insurance bet and was delighted and surprised he won. Having got that victory over 7f, I thought, then, that 7f is the trip so was loath to back him today. I was on the third.

Shouldn't grumble, I suppose since TT won for me at 25/1 lto and Jakajaro was placed today at 16's.

It's true that some horses do improve once they get their head in front.

Some eyes. Fair play.