AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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Sublimity is stronger and fitter than last year... beilieve me he is.
AoB
Sublimity
- Thread starter eric c
- Start date
AoB
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Ahhhhhhhhhh................I see...........inside information, but you don't mind if I have my doubts until he shows this improvement, do you?
AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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- May 13, 2005
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Here we go again...
I agree that they were totally different races run under totally different conditions... and possibly not the strongest point I made.. but saying that it does supply some infomation.. and if you don't believe my query over the SE times then read Nick Mordin's article in the Irish Field this week..
I made way more important points about SE that you fail to query...
Sorry to disappoint you but I think we'll the best from SE over fences.
But I still stand by my point that his times are generally slow and as I said last year (think you may remember!!) time will telll...
nite nite..
AoB.
AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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No Colin, I don't.... but what I said last year about the horse was ignored and ridiculed by some of the members...
In fact I haven't visited this site since that...
As a racing friend of mine used to say, "If you've missed the wedding, don't go to the funeral" cry
cheers,
AoB
AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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Ok,
In the case of Sublimity, he should have won the Supreme Novice... so we already new his quality... (on top of the flat listed wins) as regard times the section times for his run in the SN were very good according to Nick Mordin.. the leop win was decent.. but time was never my reason for fancying him (as you know).. ability.
In the case of SE we really only have time and the evidence in front of us to go on and I've given some good reasons other than time to agrue his chances.
I don't think he's better than a fit Sublimity but he's the one to beat...
...and we will do that come March the 11th with a bit of luck...
AoB
AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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Yes, I agree... not discounting him in anyway, shape or 'form'...
I've had a large match bet (SUB Vs SE) getting 5/4 Sublimity....
Please God they both get there, line up and we have the battle we are all looking forward to....
At least between them and some of the others the trophy should stay this side of the Irish sea again this year..
Best of luck.
AoB
Harbinger
At the Start
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AoB - congratulations on backing Sublimity last year. I know Bobbyjo was also sweet on him and I hope you both won a packet.
Personally I think he was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown and is to the Champion Hurdle what Giacomo is to the Kentucky Derby, but that's another argument.
Anyway, you started your post by telling us that people were "ignoring times" when praising Sizing Europe.
My point is simply that - as I think you know - raw times run on different ground and/or in different conditions simply can not be compared. Sometimes you can't even do it with two races run back to back on the same day. Doing it with races run 9 months apart is beyond useless, and I'd hate anyone reading this to consider it to be a factor and let it influence them.
My apologies if you think I'm being harsh, but not even Nick Mordin would try to compare the two.
The rest of your points still stand for everyone to read and discuss.
BTW I notice the RP have downgraded SE's Topspeed figure from Sunday to 159. although that's still more than half a stone faster than they've ever rated Sublimity it's a couple of pounds slower than Osana's time figure from the Bula.
Personally I think he was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown and is to the Champion Hurdle what Giacomo is to the Kentucky Derby, but that's another argument.
Anyway, you started your post by telling us that people were "ignoring times" when praising Sizing Europe.
My point is simply that - as I think you know - raw times run on different ground and/or in different conditions simply can not be compared. Sometimes you can't even do it with two races run back to back on the same day. Doing it with races run 9 months apart is beyond useless, and I'd hate anyone reading this to consider it to be a factor and let it influence them.
My apologies if you think I'm being harsh, but not even Nick Mordin would try to compare the two.
The rest of your points still stand for everyone to read and discuss.
BTW I notice the RP have downgraded SE's Topspeed figure from Sunday to 159. although that's still more than half a stone faster than they've ever rated Sublimity it's a couple of pounds slower than Osana's time figure from the Bula.
AOB -I went back and read your views on Sublimity from this time last year and your opinion is to be respected.However I have read Nick Mordins article several times and have to question his motives.Every other analyst and pundit in the RP and Irish Field has been incredibly positive about Sizing Europe since last Sunday-probably ten individuals have given him the thumbs up in a big way while Mordin has been negative to the extent of saying that SE will be one of his major lays of the meting.If SE gets chinned Mordin gets the kudos for being the only analyst who opposed him while at the same time he has effectively tipped a 2-5 winner.
Mordin uses the opening novice hurdle as his basis for thrashing SE but the facts are that SE carried a stone more then the winner of the novice,he had the race won a long way out and wasn't exactly all out for the last couple of furlongs whereas Siege of Ennis came to win his race in the last couple of furlongs and was motoring.The bottom line is that the AIG was run in a time that was 6 seconds faster.
I have seen Mordins articles on and off for the last couple of years and I feel everything is black and white with him.A lot of his logic is confused-he also said this week that Jy Vole is to be opposed if she runs in the Grade 1 Moriarty Chase next week.The horse ran in a winners of 1 last week and if she is beaten at Grade 1 level its hardly the third secret of Fatima.
Mordin uses the opening novice hurdle as his basis for thrashing SE but the facts are that SE carried a stone more then the winner of the novice,he had the race won a long way out and wasn't exactly all out for the last couple of furlongs whereas Siege of Ennis came to win his race in the last couple of furlongs and was motoring.The bottom line is that the AIG was run in a time that was 6 seconds faster.
I have seen Mordins articles on and off for the last couple of years and I feel everything is black and white with him.A lot of his logic is confused-he also said this week that Jy Vole is to be opposed if she runs in the Grade 1 Moriarty Chase next week.The horse ran in a winners of 1 last week and if she is beaten at Grade 1 level its hardly the third secret of Fatima.
AnyOtherBusiness
At the Start
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I agree that Mordin has lost the run of himself in recent times and I used to be a fan of his article in the Irish Field. It must also be noted that he is not a fan of Sublimity and was highly critical of his time in last years Champion Hurdle, which begs the question what does he fancy in the race this year...!
Irrespective of my views on Sublimity I honestly think, from the evidence I've seen, that SE is not value at 9/4 - 2/1. That's it for me.
rgds,
AoB.
Irrespective of my views on Sublimity I honestly think, from the evidence I've seen, that SE is not value at 9/4 - 2/1. That's it for me.
rgds,
AoB.
U
useful
Guest
Luke,
I haven't read his Irish Field article, but on his website his opinions on comparative sectional times are not as clear cut as you say.
On his site he states:
"First of all let us deal with the sectional times. There are a couple of strong pointers here. The first concerns a comparison with the maiden hurdle where they went a slow early pace and only picked it up from the fifth.
I've developed a fair rule of thumb when comparing novice hurdles with races like the AIG Champion Hurdle. The results I've obtained suggest that if the early pace is slow in a novice hurdle a true Grade 1 horse will still come home in faster time however fast they themselves go early. Usually they'll clock about two seconds faster for the last half of the race however slow the novices went early.
This didn't happen at Leopardstown. In the maiden hurdle they came home from the fifth in 1 minute 38.15 seconds. Sizing Europe took 1 minute 38.90.
Another pointer is a comparison with the two and a half mile Grade 2 novice hurdle which looked a bit weak for the class. Normally if you compare the last two miles or so of two races, one of which is half a mile longer you'll find that in the half mile longer race they'll come home exactly three seconds slower than in the shorter one if the horses are of the same class. Again that didn't happen at Leopardstown. Clock Sizing Europe from the first of the eight hurdles he jumped and you'll find that he crossed the finishing line from there in 3 minutes 35.7. Liskennet jumped the last eight in her half mile longer race in 3 minute 38.2 seconds. That's a difference of only 2.5 seconds."
Now you all know I have used his theory in my conclusions when deciding to lay Sizing Europe.
I think to dismiss him because he is backing a "2/5 shot" is a bit unfair. Against the increasing tide of SE support he has analysed the reason for SE's dramatic shortening in price (the AIG) and found reasons for why the form may not be as good as some people think.
It seems braver than simply going with the tide of lazy journalists who don't look beyond the end of their noses.
I haven't read his Irish Field article, but on his website his opinions on comparative sectional times are not as clear cut as you say.
On his site he states:
"First of all let us deal with the sectional times. There are a couple of strong pointers here. The first concerns a comparison with the maiden hurdle where they went a slow early pace and only picked it up from the fifth.
I've developed a fair rule of thumb when comparing novice hurdles with races like the AIG Champion Hurdle. The results I've obtained suggest that if the early pace is slow in a novice hurdle a true Grade 1 horse will still come home in faster time however fast they themselves go early. Usually they'll clock about two seconds faster for the last half of the race however slow the novices went early.
This didn't happen at Leopardstown. In the maiden hurdle they came home from the fifth in 1 minute 38.15 seconds. Sizing Europe took 1 minute 38.90.
Another pointer is a comparison with the two and a half mile Grade 2 novice hurdle which looked a bit weak for the class. Normally if you compare the last two miles or so of two races, one of which is half a mile longer you'll find that in the half mile longer race they'll come home exactly three seconds slower than in the shorter one if the horses are of the same class. Again that didn't happen at Leopardstown. Clock Sizing Europe from the first of the eight hurdles he jumped and you'll find that he crossed the finishing line from there in 3 minutes 35.7. Liskennet jumped the last eight in her half mile longer race in 3 minute 38.2 seconds. That's a difference of only 2.5 seconds."
Now you all know I have used his theory in my conclusions when deciding to lay Sizing Europe.
I think to dismiss him because he is backing a "2/5 shot" is a bit unfair. Against the increasing tide of SE support he has analysed the reason for SE's dramatic shortening in price (the AIG) and found reasons for why the form may not be as good as some people think.
It seems braver than simply going with the tide of lazy journalists who don't look beyond the end of their noses.
but it is still being clever for selecting a 2/5 shot.
The increasing tide, the bandwagon, yet he is still a 9/4 - 5/2 shot with one of the horses you had as top class, straw bear, seemingly lacking the class. Does that knock out Harchibald as well? Is Hardy Eustace upgraded a little because of Afsoun's run.
Still best of luck with your 2/5 bet.
The increasing tide, the bandwagon, yet he is still a 9/4 - 5/2 shot with one of the horses you had as top class, straw bear, seemingly lacking the class. Does that knock out Harchibald as well? Is Hardy Eustace upgraded a little because of Afsoun's run.
Still best of luck with your 2/5 bet.
U
useful
Guest
Garney, I think we have all done the Champion to death for now.
By the way I all I said about Straw Bear was it would not be a total shock if he won (having won a Grade 1 Xmas Hurdle), and I suggested Harchibald's defeat could be attributed to the subsequent abysmal form of the Meade horses. Afsoun and Straw Bear take turns in beating each other so no firm conclusions can be drawn from Saturday's form regarding the relative merits of the leading contenders.
Lets wait till the 11th March and see who was right.
By the way I all I said about Straw Bear was it would not be a total shock if he won (having won a Grade 1 Xmas Hurdle), and I suggested Harchibald's defeat could be attributed to the subsequent abysmal form of the Meade horses. Afsoun and Straw Bear take turns in beating each other so no firm conclusions can be drawn from Saturday's form regarding the relative merits of the leading contenders.
Lets wait till the 11th March and see who was right.
What i think you said that SE was way underpriced as he had yet to face true Grade 1 horses like Harchibald, Straw Bear and Jazz Messenger.
What i said was that those horses have more questions to answer than Sizing Europe.
Sizing Europe could very well get beaten, but I would like to hear reasonable reasons why he shouldnt be 5/2 from those who oppose him.
What i said was that those horses have more questions to answer than Sizing Europe.
Sizing Europe could very well get beaten, but I would like to hear reasonable reasons why he shouldnt be 5/2 from those who oppose him.
U
useful
Guest
I have stated my reasons. In some detail and depth.
If, like many on here, you choose to disagree with them, that does not make them somehow unreasonable.
As for what is and isn't value, cast your mind back to Rooster Booster being sent of 9/2 for the Champion Hurdle, with vastly more experience than SE going into the race, and at least an equally upwardly mobile profile.
You are now trying to have it both ways saying "he may well get beaten". You either believe in your theories about his form, in which case put your money where your mouth his, or else shut up!
If, like many on here, you choose to disagree with them, that does not make them somehow unreasonable.
As for what is and isn't value, cast your mind back to Rooster Booster being sent of 9/2 for the Champion Hurdle, with vastly more experience than SE going into the race, and at least an equally upwardly mobile profile.
You are now trying to have it both ways saying "he may well get beaten". You either believe in your theories about his form, in which case put your money where your mouth his, or else shut up!
I think he is the most likely winner, and I happen to think that the market is about right. That still makes him more likely to lose than to win. That is your 2/5 bet that you have taken. You appear to think that he should still be favourite but at an each way price. and your prolonged opposition to the horse isnt reasonable, given that you seem to think (well at the odds, that he is one of the most likely winner of the race)
The fact that the horses you put up against SE are proving themselves, not the grade 1 horses that you claim, but below top class. Nick Gifford said that they might as well run SB in the champion, because they dont have any other option. Two others Harchibald and Jazz Messenger from a stable that havent had a winner in 6 weeks and a runner in 2. Harchibald is a good bet to place if getting back to his best, but no matter how well he travels he has questions to answer after the last.
Rooster Booster had different questions to answer. Every horse that wins looks value after the fact.
The fact that the horses you put up against SE are proving themselves, not the grade 1 horses that you claim, but below top class. Nick Gifford said that they might as well run SB in the champion, because they dont have any other option. Two others Harchibald and Jazz Messenger from a stable that havent had a winner in 6 weeks and a runner in 2. Harchibald is a good bet to place if getting back to his best, but no matter how well he travels he has questions to answer after the last.
Rooster Booster had different questions to answer. Every horse that wins looks value after the fact.
U
useful
Guest
I am not getting drawn into another protracted debate about the merits of SE's chances in the Champion Hurdle.
We've done this to death, myself and Gareth Flynn in particular.
You have come in late in the day, and are trying to drag it out based upon Gareth's articlaute defence of his opinion.
What I find objectionable is that you are trying to rob me of any credibility even if I am proven right.
The fact remains all of the main protagonists have questions to answer, SE included. In that respect his price strikes me as far too short.
The point about if he was longer, ie 4s + is that a) I certainly wouldn;t lay him then, and would probably back him each way or more than likely to place on Betfair if I could get close to 2s.
If he loses at 5/2 it will prove that he was terrible value at the price, and that there was some depth to my argument. If he wins I will say good luck to those with the balls to have backed him, and raise a glass to them. Sounds to me like I wont be raising a glass to you as although you are banging on endlessly about this you dont seem to have the bottle to back your assumptions.
We've done this to death, myself and Gareth Flynn in particular.
You have come in late in the day, and are trying to drag it out based upon Gareth's articlaute defence of his opinion.
What I find objectionable is that you are trying to rob me of any credibility even if I am proven right.
The fact remains all of the main protagonists have questions to answer, SE included. In that respect his price strikes me as far too short.
The point about if he was longer, ie 4s + is that a) I certainly wouldn;t lay him then, and would probably back him each way or more than likely to place on Betfair if I could get close to 2s.
If he loses at 5/2 it will prove that he was terrible value at the price, and that there was some depth to my argument. If he wins I will say good luck to those with the balls to have backed him, and raise a glass to them. Sounds to me like I wont be raising a glass to you as although you are banging on endlessly about this you dont seem to have the bottle to back your assumptions.
U
useful
Guest
Why are you persisting with this?
I have just stated what I would do if he was 4/1, can you read?
I have just stated what I would do if he was 4/1, can you read?
eric c
At the Start
May I say that I like Lukes post about Mordin----he might---MORDIN that is --be trying to be a bit smart and oppose fav. as he likes to do but the fact is it was a fast AIG,no matter what the sectionals show.
Can I also say that the moderator has appeared to have removed a post of mine in which I stated that this thread was reminding me of one a few years back when an immature newbee became redundant and was removed---to each his own--- and if folks on here think the place needs this kind of jazz up--- so be it.
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Can I also say that the moderator has appeared to have removed a post of mine in which I stated that this thread was reminding me of one a few years back when an immature newbee became redundant and was removed---to each his own--- and if folks on here think the place needs this kind of jazz up--- so be it.
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