chaumi
Well-known member
Well, Chaumi's blog is just over a month old.
March 1st. Sun's out.
So, let's take stock.
The point was to keep some sort of record, given I knew my strengths were in finding the big-priced winners at an average of at least one or two a month, was already avoiding any win bets at the lower end (which traditionally I'm crap at), and finding those from 16 upwards into the mid 20s or thereabouts was doable with a reasonable level of consistence.
Results so far bear all that out, nothing new there. So it's mildly worrying that the bank isn't as healthy as it might be. Yes, it's healthy, but on the back of three 100+ winners in the last month alone, you'd have thought it might be better.
So something is not optimal.
The answer is obvious, I think. Just stick to betting anything that goes off in 3 figures (chances are that elusive 1000-1 is going to remain just that - elusive).
But - problem 1 is - that's no fun. Sure, it is when they win. But the reality is it's the thrill that counts, not just building the bank. And sometimes that thrill comes from getting it right, whatever the odds or the return.
Problem 2 is - the wins can come from unlikely quarters. Taking yesterday as an example, I'd ruled out Both Barrels as a possible but not worth risking in single figures. Wasn't even going to watch it. But clicked on maybe a minute or two into the race, and there he was in the 20s in running. Probably fortunate I'd missed the early stages, because by all accounts he wasn't going well early on, but that 20s was taken and the Barrel did me another favour.
It's been a long time since Donald had a Class 2 win - indeed, 8 years (8 years!! Really!) since Keyboard Gangster's 33-1 win also in a Kelso Class 2. Big congratulations to the yard, and there are two youngsters from this season who might yet do the same over the next 2-4 years.
Problem 3 is - several big-priced runners get in the frame without winning. In fact, 5 or 6 in the last week alone - including Run Boy Run in Meydan yesterday in the 30s - who beat everything except a 50-1 shot. And a 25-1 shot running 2nd in France. And I don't recall going for the place on any of them. So, am I leaving something on the table with those? Not sure.
I need to track it better for a month and properly see what's happening. Potentially tricky (and perhaps unusual) month, with the Festival coming up. But let's try breaking it down into:
Odds 51 upwards (with an eye on what the places are paying and whether the success rate is actually strong enough).
Odds 30-50 (again, with places)
Odds 10-29
Odds 4 - 9 (bets should be pretty sparse, if any)
3 or 4 Places lower than 4
Give it a month and see what happens, Chaumi. Try tracking with 1 point level stakes. Though you probably already know that tracking this way is unlikely to be workable timewise.
**************************
Today is an easy start. Just the one runner in France I've been waiting for: Marvel Delablairie 4.35 Auteuil. We'll find out today whether my interpretation of the last run was correct or not. Hard to tell what odds will be available. La Pagaille (same race) might be interesting if up near 3 figures.
March 1st. Sun's out.
So, let's take stock.
The point was to keep some sort of record, given I knew my strengths were in finding the big-priced winners at an average of at least one or two a month, was already avoiding any win bets at the lower end (which traditionally I'm crap at), and finding those from 16 upwards into the mid 20s or thereabouts was doable with a reasonable level of consistence.
Results so far bear all that out, nothing new there. So it's mildly worrying that the bank isn't as healthy as it might be. Yes, it's healthy, but on the back of three 100+ winners in the last month alone, you'd have thought it might be better.
So something is not optimal.
The answer is obvious, I think. Just stick to betting anything that goes off in 3 figures (chances are that elusive 1000-1 is going to remain just that - elusive).
But - problem 1 is - that's no fun. Sure, it is when they win. But the reality is it's the thrill that counts, not just building the bank. And sometimes that thrill comes from getting it right, whatever the odds or the return.
Problem 2 is - the wins can come from unlikely quarters. Taking yesterday as an example, I'd ruled out Both Barrels as a possible but not worth risking in single figures. Wasn't even going to watch it. But clicked on maybe a minute or two into the race, and there he was in the 20s in running. Probably fortunate I'd missed the early stages, because by all accounts he wasn't going well early on, but that 20s was taken and the Barrel did me another favour.
It's been a long time since Donald had a Class 2 win - indeed, 8 years (8 years!! Really!) since Keyboard Gangster's 33-1 win also in a Kelso Class 2. Big congratulations to the yard, and there are two youngsters from this season who might yet do the same over the next 2-4 years.
Problem 3 is - several big-priced runners get in the frame without winning. In fact, 5 or 6 in the last week alone - including Run Boy Run in Meydan yesterday in the 30s - who beat everything except a 50-1 shot. And a 25-1 shot running 2nd in France. And I don't recall going for the place on any of them. So, am I leaving something on the table with those? Not sure.
I need to track it better for a month and properly see what's happening. Potentially tricky (and perhaps unusual) month, with the Festival coming up. But let's try breaking it down into:
Odds 51 upwards (with an eye on what the places are paying and whether the success rate is actually strong enough).
Odds 30-50 (again, with places)
Odds 10-29
Odds 4 - 9 (bets should be pretty sparse, if any)
3 or 4 Places lower than 4
Give it a month and see what happens, Chaumi. Try tracking with 1 point level stakes. Though you probably already know that tracking this way is unlikely to be workable timewise.
**************************
Today is an easy start. Just the one runner in France I've been waiting for: Marvel Delablairie 4.35 Auteuil. We'll find out today whether my interpretation of the last run was correct or not. Hard to tell what odds will be available. La Pagaille (same race) might be interesting if up near 3 figures.
