Supreme Novices

Hamm

Hamm

At the Start
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
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That's a really good article, I think Dunguib will be very hard to beat but some good points/examples raised.
 
Really good? Like the line 'they could, for all we know, be better than him'. Isn't that statement true about any horse in any race, but which you have to decide what balance of probability you are prepared to factor in? Whether Dunguib wins or loses will have everything to do with how well he jumps and travels on quicker ground against better horses than he's ever faced over hurdles and absolutely F all to do with the fact that other hot-pots have got turned over in the same race in recent history.
 
Yes, but I don't think (nor was that what I was implying when posting the link) the article is saying that - it is merely saying the Supreme Novices is traditionally a minefield in that it is usally the case that it is the first time horses that contest it are exposed to the race conditions and hence their previous form winning poor races well may not count for much in terms of their chances for this particular race.
 
You can't get past Dunguib however you look at it. I quite liked Grey Soldier when he won on Saturday (has listed form on flat) and was tempted .........................and then I watched Dunguib on Sunday and wasn't so sure!
 
Menorah is outstanding, and won't be out of the 1st three, so if 8/1 is available thats value.

As for Dunguib, he looks good, course form ect. BUT SO DID COUSIN VINNY.

You never know how he will travel over there either, coupled with his jumping he's very short, too short for me with those concerns.
 
I don't think he'll be odds on. There will be enough layers willing to take him on given his jumping the last day.

Having said that, I've been slow to be convinced by Dunguib and I'd nearly back him at any odds against. I just feel that when you get a shorty with an obvious weakness there will be those chomping at the bit to field aganst him.
 
The notion, as stated in the Guardian piece, that Dunguib was "only going at half-speed" in the Deloitte is well wide of the mark. The final time was excellent and the race strongly run throughout.

His comment that Dunguib might be vulnerable to a younger (?) rival with a superior turn of foot on a sound surface is bordering on laughable imo; if anything manages to outpace Dunguib up the hill we will have seen an absolutely stunning performance.

I'm just happy Sweet Wake wasn't in that list ~ I'm still prone to waking up in a cold sweat remembering that debacle.
 
Sweet Wake was only not in the list because he made a "worst bets ever" list previously :lol:
 
First day could be cracker for Ireland:

Dunguib
Captain Cee Bee
Go native/Solwhit
Quevega/Voler la Vedette

Plus whatever's in the william hill!!!!!!!
Have to get 2, could get 4 on that first day.
 
I think it illustrates what sh*tes the bookies are.

I'm sure in Sea Bird's Derby he was 7/4f but it was 11/1 bar. When was the last time we saw those kinds of odds.
 
Sweet Wake was entered up during the week. That article is a fair load of bollocks. The point about Dunguib having done most of his racing on soft or heavy makes me wonder has he ever seen how Dunguib moves or heard connections constant quotes about the horse needing good ground.
 
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