Supreme Novices

trackside528 said:
His comment that Dunguib might be vulnerable to a younger (?) rival with a superior turn of foot on a sound surface is bordering on laughable imo; if anything manages to outpace Dunguib up the hill we will have seen an absolutely stunning performance.
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Bang on. I think Dunguib was the best bumper performer I have seen, I can't see him being outpaced.

I won't be backing him at odds on but I think the only way he'll be beaten is if he has seriously bad luck in running or his inexperienced rider makes an error.
 
As for the talk of him being odds on, while I think bookmakers will take him on a big way 4-5 would be astounding value on the day should nothing adverse happen in the mean time. Some amazing prices have been available in ring in recent years with 4-5 Best Mate for his third Gold Cup being the best example. Bookmakers are anything but shite at the festival.
 
I won't be backing him at odds on
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Is that not going to be true of a lot of people? Reckon he's value at odds-on but won't steam in because it could screw up the rest of the festival?

I don't know about anyone else, but generally from some time out you narrow most races down to between one and four horses. The supreme novices in particular you get this shock when you see the racecard on the day and there are all these horses you have barely considered, not considered, or never heard of, with loads of 1s beside them and very few 0s. Tends to make you nervous.
 
Gearoid said:
Bookmakers are anything but shite at the festival.
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On the day, there is value to be had, and the strong market does help reduce the over-rounds, especially if you shop around but in the big handicaps, you'll still get five or six of the first ten in the betting shortening up quite a bit in the last five minutes before the off, which impacts significantly on the SPs and pushes out the over-rounds again.

As for Dunguib, some interesting comments on the ML from Ruby and Francome about the horse's action.
 
Francome is of the view that the horse runs with sore shins. Surely not? Can't claim vast knowledge of the subject but would the horse refuse to run if he was in pain? As I understand the subject sore shins is extremely painful. Missed what RW said as the postie arrived and the dogs went into baying mode.
 
I couldn't quite follow what Ruby said. Something technical about the horse's action when on the bridle and how it went down the spine and impacted upon its hind legs. It sounded negative to me!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I couldn't quite follow what Ruby said. Something technical about the horse's action when on the bridle and how it went down the spine and impacted upon its hind legs. It sounded negative to me!
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Ruby would give his right arm to ride the horse and I know the kind of response if someone said something similar if he was riding Dunguib for Paul N or Mullins.
 
Another boost for Dunguib with Luska Lad this afternoon. Probably gone under the radar a bit after this afternoons action
 
I've fallen out with myself for not taking 90s last night. Don't know what price I thought I should have been expecting!
 
davidjohnson said:
I think the totesport Trophy winner would be a really interesting runner it based on today's performance.
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Yes. Off 135 today, he's had a strong field well spread out at the end. Probably even further ahead of the handicapper than your average Totesport Trophy winner so somewhere around the 150 mark, plus whatever the mistake took out of him at the last, plus he won ears pricked going away again.

Brilliant bit of campaigning from the trainer, it has to be said, to get him into the race still totally unexposed after four straight wins.
 
Get Me Out of Here was very impressive I thought especially to pick up again and run down Ronaldo des Mottes after the mistake with Manyriverstocross and Mamlook so far back . Mamlook was in front much too soon though so i am not quite sure that is an accurate reflection of his form . If GMOOH is 150-155 he is surely a worthy contender and a horse to at least put it up to Dunguib .
 
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