Supreme & SunAlliance Novice Hurdles

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42 entries let in the contest today….

Ashkazar (FR) 4.g
Best Prospect (IRE) 6.g
Binocular (FR) 4.g
Blue Bajan (IRE) 6.g
Breedsbreeze (IRE) 6.g
Calgary Bay (IRE) 5.g
Captain Cee Bee (IRE) 7.g
Cork All Star (IRE) 6.g
Deep Purple 7.g
Dereks (IRE) 6.g
Donaldson (GER) 6.g
Five Dream (FR) 4.g
Fiveforthree (IRE) 6.g
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) 6.g
Histoire de Moeurs (FR) 5.m
Jered (IRE) 6.g
Kalahari King (FR) 7.g
Khyber Kim 6.g
Lemon Silk (IRE) 4.g
Made In Taipan (IRE) 6.g
Majestic Concorde (IRE) 5.g
Mon Michel (IRE) 5.g
Moon Mix (FR) 5.g
Muirhead (IRE) 5.g
Norther Bay (FR) 5.g
Numide (FR) 5.g
Pasco (SWI) 5.g
Pigeon Island 5.g
Platin Grounds (GER) 6.g
Punchestowns (FR) 5.g
Quartano (GER) 5.g
Rippling Ring (SAF) 5.g
Sentry Duty (FR) 6.g
Shazand (FR) 5.g
Snap Tie (IRE) 6.g
Sophocles 5.g
Squadron 4.g
Striking Article (IRE) 6.g
Theatre Girl 5.m
The Gloves Are Off (IRE) 5.g
Tranquil Sea (IRE) 6.g
Zebra Crossing (SAF) 7.g
 
"SunAlliance" Novice Hurdle Entries....

Aigle d'Or 5.g
Breedsbreeze (IRE) 6.g
Cooldine (IRE) 6.g
County Zen (FR) 5.g
Deep Purple 7.g
Dereks (IRE) 6.g
Field Commander (IRE) 6.g
Fiveforthree (IRE) 6.g
Fond of A Drop 7.g
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) 6.g
Freddie The Third (IRE) 6.g
Gauvain (GER) 6.g
Group Captain 6.g
Hold Em (IRE) 6.g
King In Waiting (IRE) 5.g
La Estrella (USA) 5.g
Lightning Strike (GER) 5.g
Logans Run (IRE) 5.g
Luxurix (FR) 7.g
Made In Taipan (IRE) 6.g
Majestic Concorde (IRE) 5.g
Mr Muji (IRE) 5.g
Muirhead (IRE) 5.g
One Gulp 5.m
Openditch (FR) 6.g
Overclear 6.g
Pettifour (IRE) 6.g
Raven's Run (IRE) 6.g
Razor Royale (IRE) 6.g
Shazand (FR) 5.g
Sizing Africa (IRE) 6.g
Song of Songs 6.g
The Buck (IRE) 5.g
The Gloves Are Off (IRE) 5.g
The Tother One (IRE) 7.g
Trafford Lad 6.g
Tranquil Sea (IRE) 6.g
Uncle Junior (IRE) 7.g
Venalmar 6.g
Whatuthink (IRE) 6.g
 
What do we make of this race?

I'll be opposing Forpadydeplasterer (don't rate his form too highly to be honest) and can't see any of the other Irish horses being good enough to win this either.

Fancied Aigle D'Or quite strongly up until about yesterday (still think he'll run a big race), but the more I look at the race, the more I'm drawn to Group Captain. Really impressed with his last run at Exeter beating a fairly useful Nicky Henderson horse, and while he certainly isn't lacking in pace, I don't see him having any problems staying either. Goes on any ground as well.
 
While the Irish hurdlers dont appear a vintage crop they look stronger to me than their British counter parts.
 
Is there any novice in any division that looks capable of taking on the established stars next year. I cant see them. This time last year where were hopes for Denman, Aran Concerto, My Way de Solzen, Fair Along.

Not a vintage cheltenham for me.
 
Probably agree although some thought it was an average novice year when Brave Inca, War of Atrition and Newmill were amongst the stars. It was definitely said at the time.

I agree that the races above are very hard to call though. There's very few, if any, collateral form lines between Irish and English novices. I like Trafford Lad and Venalmar in the Ballymore and don't think they've done much wrong but am perfectly prepared for the fact that they just may not be good enough at all. Maybe there's more potential chasers this year, both of them seem that way for sure.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Mar 8 2008, 10:24 PM
Probably agree although some thought it was an average novice year when Brave Inca, War of Atrition and Newmill were amongst the stars. It was definitely said at the time.

I agree that the races above are very hard to call though. There's very few, if any, collateral form lines between Irish and English novices. I like Trafford Lad and Venalmar in the Ballymore and don't think they've done much wrong but am perfectly prepared for the fact that they just may not be good enough at all. Maybe there's more potential chasers this year, both of them seem that way for sure.
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That year, Macs joy, Harchibald and Accordion Etoile didnt make the festival. There could be a very good prospects missing cheltenham but most horses in the novices (and the handicaps) dont look capable of being better than high class handicappers.
 
Originally posted by granger@Mar 8 2008, 10:43 PM
Ground going against Cork All Star now but do fancy him if he is involved coming up that hill
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Course form is important and Cork All Star is two out of two at Chelters, the more I look at the first race the more I convince myself this is the one. Captain Cee Bee is already here at the racecourse stables so will miss any rocky crossings and has looked impressive so far and could be anything. Going up the course tonight as Sunday evening before the Festival is apparently a good time to to see the Irish horses out for a bit of exercise.
 
I'm a few miles away in Bristol but lovely weather here today, mainly sunny, no rain and not much wind... hard to believe there's a huge storm brewing... any Irish horses which made it over today should have been fine travelling, tho of course temp stables aren't a great place to be in a gale-force wind! Better than a boat or plane tho
 
Henderson in the opener for me. He's got a handful of decent types. I'll trust him to pick a couple or three for this, one of which could well take it.
 
I agree Steve though I prefer Sentry Duty of his two. Apparently they believe Khyber Kim to be better if there is soft in the going description. Quandary!

I also like Group Captain in the Ballymore. Class animal in a weak field.
 
Don't fancy Cork All Star myself at all really. Think he has regressed his last couple of outings over hurdles and obviously has a lot to prove on the jumping front. Course form has to be respected though, I suppose.

I think Muirhead is the strongest Irish contender in the Supreme Novices. Just hope he takes the travelling ok (and, most importantly, eats up).
 
a thought for all you peeps 30 of the last 33 horsses have either been 5 or 6 year olds i think that knocks out captain cee bee which i did fancy till i read that so do i know go on law of averages that a 7 year old is due a win ????
 
Well here's another way of looking at that stat.

Since 1988, the start of the RP database, there have been 19 renewals of the Supreme Novices:

308 of 392 horses have been aged 5 or 6, i.e. 79% of the fields.

They have won 15/19 races, i.e. 79% of the races.

So the 5 and 6 year olds are only winning what you would expect them to do based on weight of numbers.

58 of 392 horses have been aged 7 or older, i.e. 15% of the fields.

They have won 3/19 races, i.e. 16% of the races.

Again, they've been winning their fair share.

4yos, have made up 7% of the fields and won 5%, as close as you could expect them to be.

Conclusion: age has no bearing on chance in the Supreme Novices.
 
Originally posted by Tout Seul@Mar 9 2008, 05:48 PM
I agree Steve though I prefer Sentry Duty of his two. Apparently they believe Khyber Kim to be better if there is soft in the going description. Quandary!

I also like Group Captain in the Ballymore. Class animal in a weak field.
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I've back the Henderson pair you mention Laurence. I'm surprised Binocular has entered the fray. I also hear that Zebra Crossing was pleasing them recently. Given the likely going (and assuming the high winds do not prevent it going ahead) Khyber Kim may well be the answer, although like you I had been leaning toward Sentry Duty.
 
That's a big boost for Franchoek's chances in the Triumph :)
They must think he's pretty well unbeatable
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 10 2008, 02:26 PM
That's a big boost for Franchoek's chances in the Triumph :)
They must think he's pretty well unbeatable
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Could it be that Binocular might also run in the Triumph (on Friday). Have connections said this could be a possibility?
 
No and I think it was always an either/or, given he only just won lto - and did it only in 'workmanlike fashion' acc to Fitz
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Mar 9 2008, 06:28 PM
I think Muirhead is the strongest Irish contender in the Supreme Novices. Just hope he takes the travelling ok (and, most importantly, eats up).
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Doesn't sound good for Muirhead, with Meade expressing concern that he may not have taken the trip all too well. Enough to put me off.
 
Blue Bajan is a bit large at 40s. Obviously his poor run at Newbury is the reason - but i note that Richard Hughes was on him that day, which can`t have helped. Small win and place.
 
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