Talking Horses Cheltenham Festival Preview Night 2013

Just read the transcript.

Ego Inflator: On the Bridle re Pertemps "Tout Seul will pick out some yoke at 50/1 that will place" Selection was the Trib. at significantly longer than SP. Again for Aintree and recently. (reminds me forgot to claim prize)

Ego Buster: Me " I hear that Steps to Freedom is in fine form". An expensive and definitely not positive start to the meeting.
 
I will be there to agree heartily with those who advocate my own selections, and to trash anyone whose opinion varies from my own. :cool:
 
Ran like clockwork. Finished on time. Cape Tribulation was the most interesting general consensus on one race.
 
Here's one for Slim (as unofficial Forum advisor)- and anyone else.

If you had a bet on Cape Tribulation of say £300 win at an average 45/1 at what price and for what amount would you set a lay on Befair before going to the course? Would you even set a lay or would let it run.
For the sake of argument you don't take account of the various multiples you might have with CT included
 
He's a hold up horse isn't he.

I was on him in the Rowland Merick, very promising chaser but I reckon this will be bit too much for him. You never know though!!!

300 pound at 45/1 is going to win you about 13.5 K isn't it..

I'd lay a grand at 5/1 in running and be happy for it to be matched if he ran well. You'll still finish off 8.5 K richer if he wins, and 700 pound better off if he loses. Just my opinion though, good luck.
 
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If the original £300 stake is anything less than a certain percentage of my overall Festival exposure (say 8%, for arguments sake), I'm probably letting it ride. Any more, and I might be looking to lay to cover my stake.

In this instance, if I'm over the notional 8%, I'd probably look to Lay £1200 at 1.8.

I say all this in the full knowledge that it's an entirely subjective decision-making process, and that I might do something entirely different on a different day. To that extent, I think your decision is hugely influenced by how your Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday goes, and it's effectively too far out to predict accurately.

Interesting question all the same. :cool:
 
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Here's one for Slim (as unofficial Forum advisor)- and anyone else.

If you had a bet on Cape Tribulation of say £300 win at an average 45/1 at what price and for what amount would you set a lay on Befair before going to the course? Would you even set a lay or would let it run.
For the sake of argument you don't take account of the various multiples you might have with CT included

I would look to get a profit out of it. For an outlay of £300 I would look to lay back £1300 in running. That's a 10/3 winner for your troubles. I'd also be wary of giving to much away. Ideally/emotionally I'd want to win 5 figures so I would set the lay intermittadley between 2/1 and evens to lose £3.5k.
 
Generally when not sitting at home with a computer I would lay off stake only. However given the horlicks that is my AP book this year the prospect of a chunk off of my losses appeals. Clearly if other results before Friday are good then I'll run with it and I certainly won't place lay.
Your thinking makes sense and I do this for the buzz when my judgement is right not just making money. Thanks.
 
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