Teams' Analysis

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
The Guardian are running with a network of articles about each of the teams from local journalists. I think they've done 6 of the 8 groups so far, and I have enjoyed the articles immensely.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/series/world-cup-2014-guardian-experts-network

Each team has three articles:
  • Tactical Analysis
  • Fun Facts About Some of the Players
  • In-depth Profile of One Player
Although it takes a long time to read the articles, I would heartily recommend them. Some journalists are better than others, but the tactical analyses have all been very interesting so far.

Has anybody read any other decent supplements? I was travelling this week, so I missed the Racing Post betting guide. Was it worth the read?
 
You need to be mad in the head to think Brazil have a 45% chance of winning the World Cup! It's like saying Australia should be 1/2 for the Arc. I would love a Betfair market with Brazil taking out 45% - it would be like Deep Impact at the Arc all over again...
 
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I did think that and the blog does explain some of the problems with the model (lack of data mainly) in fairness but it's sound analysis nonetheless (even if the conclusions are questionable). Certainly more scientific than the majority of the anecdotal bullshit I read in the RP pullout last week!

He's certainly a man I wouldn't want to oppose in any betting markets (especially politics!)
 
Gamla Stan said:
I did think that and the blog does explain some of the problems with the model (lack of data mainly) in fairness but it's sound analysis nonetheless (even if the conclusions are questionable). Certainly more scientific than the majority of the anecdotal bullshit I read in the RP pullout last week!

He's certainly a man I wouldn't want to oppose in any betting markets (especially politics!)
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I followed him in on his opinion of Obama's college votes in the last US election. I think Stan James laid me €880 @ 10/11 on their handicap which was set lower than every other firm and the spread on intrade.com. It was probably easily the biggest bet I had that year.

Good times. How the account stayed open so long remain s a mystery.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
He's certainly a man I wouldn't want to oppose in any betting markets (especially politics!)
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But he says Brazil should be significantly shorter than what they are which is plainly wrong (even the biggest Brazil support wouldn't suggest they are a 6/4 or 7/4 shot for the WC). There is simply not enough recent worthwhile data in International Football to model this kind of stuff.
 
I found courtesy of 'Fantasy Football Scout' a table of average goals for/goals against in qualifying.

Maybe not measuring like for like, but taking the difference and then sorting (excluding Brazil of course) gave:

Top Holland +2.9

2nd ENGLAND +2.7

3rd Germany +2.6.

I'm going to find a way of weighting by continent but I was surprised by the top 3.

MR2
 
With a bit of weighting, new positions:

Top Holland +2.9

2nd Argentina +2.81

3rd ENGLAND +2.7

Not the worst forecast, the numbers might have predicted.

MR2
 
While hopefully not boring you all, used the ratings above and worked through a predictor, giving:

Semis: Brazil vs Germany & Holland vs Argentina

Final: Germany (F!!!!) vs Holland

===> Winner Holland
===> 3rd Place Argentina

Interesting predictions:

England beat Japan and then lose to Holland in the quarter-finals.
Germany beat Russia and then Bosnia (all good historical war zones, shame Poland did'nt qualify)

Pretty happy with my effort tonight - MR2
 
Hamm said:
You need to be mad in the head to think Brazil have a 45% chance of winning the World Cup! It's like saying Australia should be 1/2 for the Arc. I would love a Betfair market with Brazil taking out 45% - it would be like Deep Impact at the Arc all over again...
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I agree

What a load of drivel. He hasn't a clue. One duff headline figure and bin the rest

He has Mexico as a 3% chance of beating brazil. What does he think they are ? paraplegics?

Will he lay 33/1 then? Will he fck

15/2 at the bookies
 
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As I said, he explains the flaws in the model (as Hamm says, lack of data) like any analyst/mathematician worth their salt would. It's a damn sight more interesting than the usual bullshit spouted by so called analysts and experts in the TV and print media saying how England have never beat X in the last 12 matches (even though 10 were probably before the second world war etc).

As Slim says, he's not someone's opinion you'd want to ignore and whilst the model has clearly under estimated some teams and over estimated some teams, there is still a clear narrative, especially in predicting the groups.
 
I disagree - he is someone, in this sphere, you would want to go against very much. He is trying to transfer his statistical modelling approach to the WC, which simply doesn't work, and is better ignoring completely. In other spheres such as politics where his method has more validity, I would agree with you both he is of interest.
 
Hamm said:
I disagree - he is someone, in this sphere, you would want to go against very much. He is trying to transfer his statistical modelling approach to the WC, which simply doesn't work, and is better ignoring completely. In other spheres such as politics where his method has more validity, I would agree with you both he is of interest.
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He has applied it to baseball and basketball very successfully too though.

Obviously, I'd rather have Tony Bloom's model!!
 
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Gamla Stan said:
He has applied it to baseball and basketball very successfully too though.

Obviously, I'd rather have Tony Bloom's model!!
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And I'm sure that could work well - but these events recur much more frequently than the WC, and hence the recent data is relevant to predicting the current tournament. I think even the last WC could be argued as irrelevant (data wise).
 
Hamm said:
And I'm sure that could work well - but these events recur much more frequently than the WC, and hence the recent data is relevant to predicting the current tournament. I think even the last WC could be argued as irrelevant (data wise).
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Agree with all of this. On a more general point, football (along with racing!) does seem to be one of the sports a long long way behind the curve on meaningful data which can be used to predict performance.

My appetite for football has dropped off a cliff since the last World Cup but I'm trying to get back into it and I've just started reading this: http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Numbers-Game-Everything-Football/dp/0670922242 which has got off to a good start.
 
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