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The 2025 2000 Guineas

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
26,670
Don't see a thread for it so far...

Anyroads a headline in today's RP site casts doubt on The Lion In Winter's participation in the race due to not being ready enough.

"The Lion In Winter is in good shape. He took a little bit of time to come right, so he’s a little bit behind the others. He was at the Curragh last weekend and it went well and the work was easy. Whether he’ll make it in time for the Guineas, I’m not sure. He’s carrying plenty of condition, so in the next few weeks we’ll know."

It is somewhat at odds [imo] with the upbeat report in the ATR stable tour last week in which he said:

He had an away day at the Curragh earlier in the week and all went smoothly. We’ll get an idea of how much that has brought him along in the coming days and plans will soon start to come together with him, but he’s an obvious candidate for the 2000 Guineas.

If the double-speak was part of a plan for 'the lads' to get a price about TLIW it has worked. He's been pushed out to 10s.

For all the talk in recent years about certain Ballydoyles being triple crown candidates, TLIW struck me as a good one. Bred to at least need the Derby trip he seems to have the speed for the Guineas. Then again, I am mindful that Simon Rowlands's analysis of his striding pattern left him unconvinced that it would stay much more than the mile.
 
Yeah, the master of double speak.

Lion of Winter - unlikely to make Newmarket so Derby prep.

Expanded - Could go Tetrarch then Irish 2000

Twain - Possible to head straight to Newmarket.

On the one hand this makes no sense, Twain won a Group 1 in France over a mile on heavy ground so that doesn't scream Rowley Mile at 3 to me. However not sure Aiden really gives much of a shit about the 2000 Guineas really, he's sent plenty there under cooked.

I backed Expanded over the winter so would be a bit worried if he lines up for that listed race. We'll see.

I'd prefer Shadow of Light of the Godolphin lot but he is a questionable stayer.
 
Your favourite Uncle Smart Arse tells you everything you need to know about the Rowley Mile, but were afraid to ask.

One of racing's great myths (probably perpetrated by people who just watch the race from the Stand, and see them racing into the dip then meet the rising ground, and have never actually walked the course) is that the Rowley Mile is a stiff mile.

It isn't.

It's gently downhill for most of the way and is actually one of the easier straight miles in the country.

That said, instances of horses that barely stay a mile, and subsequently revert to sprint distances, winning this race are all but non-existent.

But the race does go to a number of out-and-out milers who never stay much further, not even 1m2f.

One's Shortlist

The Lion In Winter - lovely colt, super pedigree, won the Acomb well, but not sighted since and never mind what people who live in Dore (Simon Rowlands) think, that's got to be a concern.

Shadow Of Light - Best 2yo form, cracking colt, overcame issues to win the Dewhurst, prospects of staying on pedigree and style of racing, but I've seen a lot of his type not get home and revert to sprinting.

Expanded - Ran a blinder for one so inexperienced in the Dewhurst. Progressive sort, every chance.

Ancient Truth - Plucky Dewhurst third, if he trains on best he'd have every chance if aimed at this. Will stay the mile.

Twain - Under a few radars, but but not mine. Impressed me in France. Another with every chance if aimed at this.

Opera Ballo - I was waiting to see if he's entered for Kempton Park on Saturday for the race fast becoming the modern Ascot/Salisbury Guineas Trial (Notable Speech won it last year). He isn't. They've got some mad fantasy about him being a Kentucky Derby colt, but if sanity prevails he could be very good in something like this.

Ruling Court - Won as he liked at Meydan recently and might just be far better at three than he was at two when placed in the Acomb.
 
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Twain is fascinating Ian. He's obviously going to be better over further than a mile but Montjeu as a damsire does feature in some good miler's pedegrees - Legattisimo, Paddington, Charm Spirit - so one can't rule him out on those grounds.
 
A bit early! I was very impressed by Ruling Court on his debut at Sandown, but then he was a disappointing favourite coming third behind The Lion in Winter in the Acombe. I didn’t see his opener at Meydan at the beginning of March, but reports were quite encouraging even though he didn’t beat much.

RULING COURT, a beaten favourite in a strong renewal of the Acomb at York when last seen in August, stepped up to beat a rival rated 19lb his inferior at level weights in the first-time tongue-tie, impressing with the manner in which he settled matters. He was sweating between his back legs and was a bit keen early but otherwise did everything professionally and he'll likely hold his own in stronger company, his rider reporting him to be potentially top class. He's a general 10-1 for the 2,000 Guineas.RP

QUOTES: In some ways I was quite pleased that RULING COURT got beaten [in the Acomb at York] because that meant we didn't force him to do more than he was ready for. I'm very lucky in that I can put these horses away and allow them to develop. I think he'll continue to develop and we will go back to Europe with a sharper model. I never want to get too excited in the immediate aftermath, but we anticipated him being a ten furlong horse, so whether we got to the Dante or take in the Guineas on route, we'll see - Charlie Appleby, trainer.RP
 


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