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The 2025 2000 Guineas

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
26,769
Don't see a thread for it so far...

Anyroads a headline in today's RP site casts doubt on The Lion In Winter's participation in the race due to not being ready enough.

"The Lion In Winter is in good shape. He took a little bit of time to come right, so he’s a little bit behind the others. He was at the Curragh last weekend and it went well and the work was easy. Whether he’ll make it in time for the Guineas, I’m not sure. He’s carrying plenty of condition, so in the next few weeks we’ll know."

It is somewhat at odds [imo] with the upbeat report in the ATR stable tour last week in which he said:

He had an away day at the Curragh earlier in the week and all went smoothly. We’ll get an idea of how much that has brought him along in the coming days and plans will soon start to come together with him, but he’s an obvious candidate for the 2000 Guineas.

If the double-speak was part of a plan for 'the lads' to get a price about TLIW it has worked. He's been pushed out to 10s.

For all the talk in recent years about certain Ballydoyles being triple crown candidates, TLIW struck me as a good one. Bred to at least need the Derby trip he seems to have the speed for the Guineas. Then again, I am mindful that Simon Rowlands's analysis of his striding pattern left him unconvinced that it would stay much more than the mile.
 
Yeah, the master of double speak.

Lion of Winter - unlikely to make Newmarket so Derby prep.

Expanded - Could go Tetrarch then Irish 2000

Twain - Possible to head straight to Newmarket.

On the one hand this makes no sense, Twain won a Group 1 in France over a mile on heavy ground so that doesn't scream Rowley Mile at 3 to me. However not sure Aiden really gives much of a shit about the 2000 Guineas really, he's sent plenty there under cooked.

I backed Expanded over the winter so would be a bit worried if he lines up for that listed race. We'll see.

I'd prefer Shadow of Light of the Godolphin lot but he is a questionable stayer.
 
Your favourite Uncle Smart Arse tells you everything you need to know about the Rowley Mile, but were afraid to ask.

One of racing's great myths (probably perpetrated by people who just watch the race from the Stand, and see them racing into the dip then meet the rising ground, and have never actually walked the course) is that the Rowley Mile is a stiff mile.

It isn't.

It's gently downhill for most of the way and is actually one of the easier straight miles in the country.

That said, instances of horses that barely stay a mile, and subsequently revert to sprint distances, winning this race are all but non-existent.

But the race does go to a number of out-and-out milers who never stay much further, not even 1m2f.

One's Shortlist

The Lion In Winter - lovely colt, super pedigree, won the Acomb well, but not sighted since and never mind what people who live in Dore (Simon Rowlands) think, that's got to be a concern.

Shadow Of Light - Best 2yo form, cracking colt, overcame issues to win the Dewhurst, prospects of staying on pedigree and style of racing, but I've seen a lot of his type not get home and revert to sprinting.

Expanded - Ran a blinder for one so inexperienced in the Dewhurst. Progressive sort, every chance.

Ancient Truth - Plucky Dewhurst third, if he trains on best he'd have every chance if aimed at this. Will stay the mile.

Twain - Under a few radars, but but not mine. Impressed me in France. Another with every chance if aimed at this.

Opera Ballo - I was waiting to see if he's entered for Kempton Park on Saturday for the race fast becoming the modern Ascot/Salisbury Guineas Trial (Notable Speech won it last year). He isn't. They've got some mad fantasy about him being a Kentucky Derby colt, but if sanity prevails he could be very good in something like this.

Ruling Court - Won as he liked at Meydan recently and might just be far better at three than he was at two when placed in the Acomb.
 
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Twain is fascinating Ian. He's obviously going to be better over further than a mile but Montjeu as a damsire does feature in some good miler's pedegrees - Legattisimo, Paddington, Charm Spirit - so one can't rule him out on those grounds.
 
A bit early! I was very impressed by Ruling Court on his debut at Sandown, but then he was a disappointing favourite coming third behind The Lion in Winter in the Acombe. I didn’t see his opener at Meydan at the beginning of March, but reports were quite encouraging even though he didn’t beat much.

RULING COURT, a beaten favourite in a strong renewal of the Acomb at York when last seen in August, stepped up to beat a rival rated 19lb his inferior at level weights in the first-time tongue-tie, impressing with the manner in which he settled matters. He was sweating between his back legs and was a bit keen early but otherwise did everything professionally and he'll likely hold his own in stronger company, his rider reporting him to be potentially top class. He's a general 10-1 for the 2,000 Guineas.RP

QUOTES: In some ways I was quite pleased that RULING COURT got beaten [in the Acomb at York] because that meant we didn't force him to do more than he was ready for. I'm very lucky in that I can put these horses away and allow them to develop. I think he'll continue to develop and we will go back to Europe with a sharper model. I never want to get too excited in the immediate aftermath, but we anticipated him being a ten furlong horse, so whether we got to the Dante or take in the Guineas on route, we'll see - Charlie Appleby, trainer.RP
 
Ian_Davies said:
Your favourite Uncle Smart Arse tells you everything you need to know about the Rowley Mile, but were afraid to ask.

One of racing's great myths (probably perpetrated by people who just watch the race from the Stand, and see them racing into the dip then meet the rising ground, and have never actually walked the course) is that the Rowley Mile is a stiff mile.

It isn't.

It's gently downhill for most of the way and is actually one of the easier straight miles in the country.

That said, instances of horses that barely stay a mile, and subsequently revert to sprint distances, winning this race are all but non-existent.

But the race does go to a number of out-and-out milers who never stay much further, not even 1m2f.
Click to expand...

I reckon few straight miles are easy. Horses don't get the chance to 'fill up' at halfway like they do in round course races where forces of nature compel them to slow down to take the turn(s).

Newmarket would, though, be one of the easier ones but it would be harder than any round-course mile bar maybe Pontefract.
 
Ascot's Old Mile, starting at Swinley Bottom, is stiffer than the Rowley Mile in my book.

Anyway, Expanded, Shadow Of Light and Ruling Court are the three survivors from "One's Shortlist."

Field Of Gold has emerged since, and has a favourite's chance, but he's plenty short enough for a colt trained by a old geezer with an indifferent record over many years in the Guineas Classics.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Ascot's Old Mile, starting at Swinley Bottom, is stiffer than the Rowley Mile in my book.
Click to expand...

True. I'd forgotten about that one.

On the Standard Times I use, only the following take 1m40s or more for the mile:

Ascot (Rnd)
Pontefract
Sandown

The Rowley Mile would be among the slower miles and while, topographically, I would agree that it isn't 'stiff' I do believe you need a genuine 8-9f horse for it because the pace doesn't really relent, especially in the bigger races, and committing going into the dip means committing earlier than would be ideal on a flat or round track and then you need stamina to get home.
 
One thing's for sure, instances of colts winning the 2,000 Guineas and ending up being better at shorter distances are about as frequent as sightings of Walsworth at Conservative Party Conferences.

Quality will not get you home - if you don't stay every yard of a mile, you don't win it.
 
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I've only just had a look at the 5-day field and I have to say I'm not exactly overawed.

The top OR in the field is 120 (Shadow Of Light) and the top RPR is 117 (Shadow, Field of Gold and Henri Matisse), hardly knock-your-socks-off figures.

It actually gives me a wee bit more hope about Green Impact. Stablemate Hotazhell (OR117; RPR116) is heading for the Irish equivalent so either hasn't trained on that well or Green Impact has overtaken it so I have to be satisfied to have 33/1 about him.

I live in hope that something will come out and show itself to be a 126+ winner and give this year's edition a bit of gravitas but right now I'm struggling to see where it might come from. Shadow Of Light himself, maybe?
 
I never worry aboot things like that beforehand - finding the winner (or at least the value bet) is all that matters right now.

The 1979 Derby was beforehand said to be wide open and moderate - Troy won it by seven and three and he then won the Irish Derby, the King George and the International Stakes, the runner up won the Eclipse, the third won the Champion Stakes and the fourth won the following year's Prince Of Wales's, Eclipse and King George.

So keep an open mind and never dismiss any renewal as moderate BEFOREHAND. 😂
 
I've got a question re the time/sectionals of the Craven. Seb Sanders on the ATR 2000 Guineas preview said they went very fast and so Field of Gold was maybe a tad flattered and indeed watching the replay they were touching 38/39 mph most of the race which I always think is a fast pace but Simon Rowlands on the ATR results/analysis page says it was a steady run renewal. I know we must have some time bandits on here so who's is closer to the truth?
 
There is a degree of contradiction with SR's analysis in saying they went steady when 'his' pace map shows Fast-Slow-Fast for the race.

38/39mph doesn't strike me as being that fast (there was a race, not a sprint, recently in which they clocked 40+mph for a lot of it) but maybe in soft ground it's decent enough.

It looks like the winner will also be getting the biggest mark-up to add to its hands-and-heels ease of victory but it still only ends up with an OR below the 120 mark; still a fair improvement on its 2yo form but I'd imagine quite a few others will have similar improvement from last season to this just waiting to happen.
 
That's fair. I worry as an Expanded backer that that improvement will come later in the season given that Twain looked their main hope. Pacewise 38/39 isn't mega fast but at Newmarket there's no bend so there's not as much scope for the leaders to get a break into it.
 
Aidan O'Brien's recent 2,000 Guineas record isn't the best - the media won't say it but he's managed to get two subsequent Derby winners beaten out of sight in it in rapid succession.

That said, I thought Expanded ran a blinder for one so inexperienced in the Dewhurst, he might get the mile better than the winner, the fact O'Brien hasn't really trained him for the race (a contest on Monday was the original plan) might actually be to his advantage and Expanded features in my admittedly much-shrunken "Guinfolio" at 25/1.
 
Sure to stay and progressive historically trumps higher rateable 2yo form over shorter and stamina doubts.

Both are in my "Guinfolio" along with Expanded and a gutless saver on the jolly just after the Craven.
 
Green Impact is a horse that I like, and is well thought of by trainer Jessica Harrington. Has a bit to find on the ratings but there will be no stamina doubts about the trip ( and should stay further ), my main concern though is the current stable form - Jessie is 0/29 at the time of posting, quotes of 16's and 14/1 with 4 Places makes him one to consider for EW purposes.
 


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