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The 2025 Arc Trials Day fixture @ Longchamp

Ian_Davies said:
The Lion In Winter has run a stormer - it again wasn't the best G1 you'll ever see, but he's run a career best there after, the Prix Jean Prat aside, being largely disappointing since the Acomb.
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Where does a performance like that come from ? I used to say backing Mark Johnstons was like playing a roulette wheel but O'Brien isnt far off.
 
Danny said:
Where does a performance like that come from ? I used to say backing Mark Johnstons was like playing a roulette wheel but O'Brien isnt far off.
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He's always had the ability. He's just struggled with his feet. They may have finally managed to sort them out - he did look much more comfortable today instead of running with his head up and not letting himself down. Nice to see.
 
jinnyj said:
He's always had the ability. He's just struggled with his feet. They may have finally managed to sort them out - he did look much more comfortable today instead of running with his head up and not letting himself down. Nice to see.
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The problem with a horse like that is he could be beaten in a listed race next time out.
 
I watched the Rosallion race on my phone while out walking with my little girl. It never even occurred to me that it wasn’t you until I read the forum.

I think of one as luckless — perhaps Kalanisi? Even he had his days in the end.
 
I did say the 12/1 Aventure to give Minnie Hauk a race in the Yorkshire Oaks would have been fair if you knew she'd turn up (she didn't).

They are now joint favs for the Arc.

Today's Arc Trial Day thread takeaways....

- Japanese horse confirms Slim's French guru was right about the ground

- The first rule of riding Rosallion is still "do not start your run from the rear until the winner's jockey has weighed in"

- A filly might just win the Arc again this year, but it's tight and could be a heavily ground-dependant renewal again

- Slim can multitask
 
Danny said:
Where does a performance like that come from ? I used to say backing Mark Johnstons was like playing a roulette wheel but O'Brien isnt far off.
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Sometimes I think the Strategy of the whole operation has changed. Using some big meetings + races as prep runs for bigger targets down the line.
 
Robicheaux said:
Sometimes I think the Strategy of the whole operation has changed. Using some big meetings + races as prep runs for bigger targets down the line.
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That 100% happens but The Lion In Winter just has too many problems.
 
Slim said:
I watched the Rosallion race on my phone while out walking with my little girl. It never even occurred to me that it wasn’t you until I read the forum.

I think of one as luckless — perhaps Kalanisi? Even he had his days in the end.
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Grand Lodge would be my nominee; he was pipped in 2000Gns, Irish Champion, Champion Stakes placed Sussex and at York after managing a St James Palace Stakes but could easily have been the champion 3 year old that year.
 
edgt said:
Grand Lodge would be my nominee; he was pipped in 2000Gns, Irish Champion, Champion Stakes placed Sussex and at York after managing a St James Palace Stakes but could easily have been the champion 3 year old that year.
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Great shout.
 
I would go with Alydar if USA nominations are allowed - with no Affirmed around he wins the Triple Crown himself and he ran Affirmed close under arguably less-than-brilliant rides on occasions.
 
I see the RP is on about Longchamp Prix Vermeille winner Aventure re the Arc, but historically the York Juddmonte/International has been a better trial/pointer race for the Arc
 
I don't know if it affects the stats but the Vermeille used to be for 3yo fillies only.

The race was opened to four-year-old fillies in 2004, and to older mares (5yo+) in 2006.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I don't know if it affects the stats but the Vermeille used to be for 3yo fillies only.

The race was opened to four-year-old fillies in 2004, and to older mares (5yo+) in 2006.
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my data only goes back to 2000 so I doubt that'll make a difference to my stats
 
I see last year's winner Bluestocking , won the Longchamp Prix Vermeille and was 4th in the York Juddmonte/International that year.
However another one re Aventure who was 2nd in the Arc last year, since 2000, 71 horses have ran in the Arc after running the previous year and only 5 (7%) have won.
 
You know way more about stats analysis than me, but I'd have thought there's a difference between merely running in the Arc and how a horse actually performed in it.

Alleged won it in 1977 and came back to win it again in 1978, Aventure was runner up last year and bids to go one better this year.

Any stats on how horses who, say, made the frame (top four) got on if having another go please?
 
8 winners from prev year tried the following year and 2 have won
18 placed only ,i.e. excluding the winners, from prev year tried the following year and 1 has won
 
To check you'll have to look at the Arc results each year on the RP site starting in 2000 and check which horses appeared again the following year and their results.

The stats make Aventure at best a break even saver for me in the Arc
 
What relevance have stats in a year with no standout colt or older horse? Not to mention that the race is so bad that everything will run, and draw bias will be absolutely crucial to the result. Sometimes in betting you need to take an overall look and stop pretending that things like the past matter.
 

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