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The 2025 Ascot Handicap

Impossible to have a bet until Thursday.
The race is worth 41,000 to the winner.
Mr OMeara has
Akkadian thunder
Darkness
Leadman
Rhoscolyn
Sword.

The wizard of eyes is interesting.but hasn't run for a year and doesn't seem to have a hcap mark.
Others on my list are
Aalto
Apiarist
Billyjoh
Northern express.

Leadman is officially rated 91 so could win this and still be on a winnable for the 2 big races later.the 7f race at ascot and the Balmoral.
And of course sword rated 86.

Decisions decisions.
 
It's hard for me to forget the race Aalto ran in the Bunbury Cup against More Thunder.

His Ascot record is less dreadful than might appear to be the case at first glance and he also ran better than his finishing position might suggest at York.

But he's sometimes weak in the betting, even before a cracking run (he was 40/1 in the Bunbury) so I'm not tempted at this stage by 16/1 with only three firms betting on it and other ante-post imponderables (ground, draw, will he actually run?)
 
Impossible to have a bet until Thursday.
The race is worth 41,000 to the winner.
Mr OMeara has
Akkadian thunder
Darkness
Leadman
Rhoscolyn
Sword.

The wizard of eyes is interesting.but hasn't run for a year and doesn't seem to have a hcap mark.
Others on my list are
Aalto
Apiarist
Billyjoh
Northern express.

Leadman is officially rated 91 so could win this and still be on a winnable for the 2 big races later.the 7f race at ascot and the Balmoral.
And of course sword rated 86.

Decisions decisions.
Nostrum is the O' Meara horse who interests me for the Balmoral. Looks like he's deliberately running his handicap mark down for that race.
 
I'd throw Afentiko in the mix at a fair price. I'd rarely be wanting to back a three year old colt against the older brigade, given he's still probably developing and strengthening up and all that, but maybe this perceived negative might work out as a positive if he's got more to give than what the handicapper is aware of.

Firstly, he's bred for this place. The sire Hello Youmzain won a Diamond Jubilee here at Ascot, and his grandsire Aqlaam won a Summer Mile and was third in a Queen Anne.

Secondly, his 11th in the Britannia was a very good run, given everything that filled the places had a high draw, and he was coming from stall six.

There was a horse in that race at Royal Ascot a few positions ahead of Afentiko, who was also drawn low, called Fifth Column, who has franked the form extremely well since. He could be the Gosden's horse for the Cambridgeshire.

Thirdly, Afentiko has been nicely dropped by the handicapper and this will have done his prospects no harm at all.

Finally, I think good to soft ground or thereabouts could be ideal for him along with 7 furlongs at this track. I'd put a line through the last run at Goodwood and hope his trainer gets him right for this. At the likely prices I'm happy to find out if he takes his chance.
 
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I'd throw Afentiko in the mix at a fair price. I'd rarely be wanting to back a three year old colt against the older brigade, given he's still probably developing and strengthening up and all that, but maybe this perceived negative might work out as a positive if he's got more to give than what the handicapper is aware of.

Firstly, he's bred for this place. The sire Hello Youmzain won a Diamond Jubilee here at Ascot, and his grandsire Aqlaam won a Summer Mile and was third in a Queen Anne.

Secondly, his 11th in the Britannia was a very good run, given everything that filled the places had a high draw, and he was coming from stall six.

There was a horse in that race at Royal Ascot a few positions ahead of Afentiko, who was also drawn low, called Fifth Column, who has franked the form extremely well since. He could be the Gosden's horse for the Cambridgeshire.

Thirdly, Afentiko has been nicely dropped by the handicapper and this will have done his prospects no harm at all.

Finally, I think good to soft ground or thereabouts could be ideal for him along with 7 furlongs at this track. I'd put a line through the last run at Goodwood and hope his trainer gets him right for this. At the likely prices I'm happy to find out if he takes his chance.

This is also one I've looked at this morning. I think the drop back in trip and return to a straight track are more in his favour. Goodwood can be forgiven as he was all at sea on the bend,the track and the soft ground probably didn't aid his cause either. His run at Haydock prior to Ascot was decent enough given that he didn't seem to enjoy the bend there either. He made a good fist of it in the race at Ascot before fading in the last Furlong so this drp back to 7f might be ideal. As obsessed as Ian is with ground and wind direction I'm probably more so with the draw on Ascot straight course. I think he's possibly on the wrong side of the track with most the favoured horses and pace on the other side. He's currently 20/1 I'd be alright taking a chance at that but tbh I think he'll probably drift by tomorrow and I'd be hoping for 33/1 at least.

Good luck Marb I dare say I'll be along for the ride on this one also. Probably in a trixie with Helm Rock and Time for Sandals 2 others who have draw issues to overcome.
 
Cheers, Danny.

I had a decent sized ante post bet on him earlier in the week. I was sweating it out when I later realised he was 32 in the list to get in, but thankfully I should get a run for my money. I enjoyed reading your thoughts on him. Good luck getting 33s!
 
Going stick: Straight: 6.7, Round: 5.3. Readings taken at 7.15am on Saturday

I don't think there's much wrong with the ground at Ascot either.

There was give for sure yesterday - OR 91 Shout was 2.97s slow for 1m - but the stick readings are rising, it's meant to be a dry breezy day and I doubt if it will be any worse than Good to Soft come post time.

Round course readings are always lower at Ascot than on the Straight course btw but any differential in the ground between the two is usually less than the raw numbers might imply.
 
I'd throw Afentiko in the mix at a fair price. I'd rarely be wanting to back a three year old colt against the older brigade, given he's still probably developing and strengthening up and all that, but maybe this perceived negative might work out as a positive if he's got more to give than what the handicapper is aware of.

Firstly, he's bred for this place. The sire Hello Youmzain won a Diamond Jubilee here at Ascot, and his grandsire Aqlaam won a Summer Mile and was third in a Queen Anne.

Secondly, his 11th in the Britannia was a very good run, given everything that filled the places had a high draw, and he was coming from stall six.

There was a horse in that race at Royal Ascot a few positions ahead of Afentiko, who was also drawn low, called Fifth Column, who has franked the form extremely well since. He could be the Gosden's horse for the Cambridgeshire.

Thirdly, Afentiko has been nicely dropped by the handicapper and this will have done his prospects no harm at all.

Finally, I think good to soft ground or thereabouts could be ideal for him along with 7 furlongs at this track. I'd put a line through the last run at Goodwood and hope his trainer gets him right for this. At the likely prices I'm happy to find out if he takes his chance.
f%*& me, didn't that go well.

A 3 year old colt. I should have known.
 

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