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The 2025 Belmont Stakes

Ian_Davies said:
over at Keeneland it simply can't have Tommy Jo beat, pricing the filly up at "No Offers."
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I'm off to bed shortly, but not before I've given my data model a good kicking for telling me to have "the lot" on an odds-on poke who couldn't even pass the post first and only got the race on a disqualification.
 
Kicking myself for not laying the living daylights out of Diego Velasquez at odes on in the win and place markets.
 
It's The Spinster Stakes at Keeneland tonight and FWIW my model bets: 1/4 Thorpedo Anna, 4/1 Nitrogen, a million the rest.

Come on, The Thorpedo!
 
It's the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over 1m1f on turf at Keeneland tomorrow.

FWIW, my utter bottle job of a data model bets: 6/4 each of two Lush Lips and Fionn, 4/1 Laurelin and you can forget the rest.
 
Ian_Davies said:
It's the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over 1m1f on turf at Keeneland tomorrow.

FWIW, my utter bottle job of a data model bets: 6/4 each of two Lush Lips and Fionn, 4/1 Laurelin and you can forget the rest.
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And Lush Lips, who my model put in at 6/4 (40% chance of winning) obliges at a BSP of 14.67.

A pleasing result.
 
I've already decided that, early next year, I will be starting a thread entitled: "The 2026 USA Racing Thread" to house all these discussions in a clearly-labelled format.

Meanwhile, my favourite meeting of the entire year rapidly approaches - the Breeders' Cup.

I may start a bespoke thread for that too and I'm already keeping an eye on the ante-post betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup

And my model - successful so far this year - will be deployed once the final declarations are made.

There will be various European raiders with live chances in turf races, but my main focus is usually on USA dirt horses.

There are so many of those I look forward to seeing at this meeting.
 
I will offer one thought at this stage.

Sovereignty is a talented 3yo colt, BUT....he swerved the Preakness, his Belmont win was over the same trip as the Kentucky Derby, he swerved the Haskell and he's yet to face an older horse.

Journalism, twice beaten by him, has faced older opposition and got hammered by Fierceness in the Pacific Classic.

Maybe a long, tough, season was catching up with Journalism, but it has to be a concern.

Fierceness is a cracking horse on his day and Sierra Leone, when granted a strong pace at 1m2f, is arguably an even better one.

Last year's Breeders' Cup Classic one-two are 11/2 and 7/1 with Sovereignty the 2/1 favourite.

I think in excess of 5/2 dutched one of the pair to floor Sovereignty is better value, as it stands, than 2/1 the 3yo.
 
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Thorpedo Anna’s been retired. Stone bruise and not worth trying to train her for the Breeders Cup. Although someone has said on Facebook that she didn’t look right before her last race.
 
I've decided to start a separate thread for the Breeders' Cup meeting.

It's my favourite meeting of the entire year, I shall be running my USA racing data model on all the Breeders' Cup races and I will also have more personal opinions than you can shake a stick at.
 
maureen said:
Thorpedo Anna’s been retired. Stone bruise and not worth trying to train her for the Breeders Cup. Although someone has said on Facebook that she didn’t look right before her last race.
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She hasn't been at her very best this year but at least she is getting out in one piece.
 

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