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The 2025 Breeders' Cup

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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14 races, five for 2yos on Halloween, the other nine the following day, it's my favourite meeting of the entire year and it's time to start getting VERY excited (unless your name is Lionel, you live in a cave - or Milton Keynes - and your idea of fun is collating lists of the two-for-one offers at ASDA).

I won't give the schedule or ante-post betting, you all know where to find both, but I will be inundating you all with opinions come the day.

My USA racing data model has been polished, fed an extra bowl of gruel and will be spewing out no end of absurdly-opinionated 100% book tissues that will give a maximum of five horses per race any sort of chance whatsoever and hopefully fewer than that.

Plus I might even have the odd (very odd) occasional independent thought of my own.

My opening salvo (which my model may disagree with come the day): "Ooh, wasn't Field Of Gold impressive earlier in the year? How did he get on the two times he actually met older horses, pop pickers? Think of him, think of Sovereignty and think on!"
 
Tbh, I'll be more focussed on the USA dirt horses and races.

In terms of the Turf races, which many European observers tend to focus on (because it's where the European challenge is historically strongest and they feel they have the strongest handle on their form) I think the following....

There was a time when the value mantra was: back USA horses with British bookies and back European horses on the pari-mutuel (Tolomeo in the 1983 Arlington Millon being my greatest "coup" there).

It's not that simple nowadays and sometimes the hosts have exaggerated respect for Euro turf horses.

Rebels Romance is a marvellous racehorse who has done me countless good turns.

He also blew me away physically in a way few horses do in the paddock the one time I saw him live at Kempton Park.

But they didn't run Rebels Romance in the Arc for a reason - he's just not quite top class in quality Euro 1m4f turf Group 1s.

It's going to be pretty quick ground out there and anything with quality that thrives on the surface could give him a race.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Tbh, I'll be more focussed on the USA dirt horses and races.

In terms of the Turf races, which many European observers tend to focus on (because it's where the European challenge is historically strongest and they feel they have the strongest handle on their form) I think the following....

There was a time when the value mantra was: back USA horses with British bookies and back European horses on the pari-mutuel (Tolomeo in the 1983 Arlington Millon being my greatest "coup" there).

It's not that simple nowadays and sometimes the hosts have exaggerated respect for Euro turf horses.

Rebels Romance is a marvellous racehorse who has done me countless good turns.

He also blew me away physically in a way few horses do in the paddock the one time I saw him live at Kempton Park.

But they didn't run Rebels Romance in the Arc for a reason - he's just not quite top class in quality Euro 1m4f turf Group 1s.

It's going to be pretty quick ground out there and anything with quality that thrives on the surface could give him a race.
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With conditions to suit. I think Ethical Diamond could run well here.. He could be a price on the Pari- mutual .
 
I was looking yesterday at the 21:41 Breeders Cup Turf, and spur of the moment decided to have an e/way bet on Amiloc,
Beckett seem to think he has a chance so although I think either Minnie Hauk or Rebels Romance will win, I'll be happy with a place
happy to make a small profit if that happens and took the price @16/1
 
Oxford said:
I was looking yesterday at the 21:41 Breeders Cup Turf, and spur of the moment decided to have an e/way bet on Amiloc,
Beckett seem to think he has a chance so although I think either Minnie Hauk or Rebels Romance will win, I'll be happy with a place
happy to make a small profit if that happens and took the price @16/1
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Given Becketts post race comments at Royal Ascot. I'd be very concerned about the ground.
 
I can't actually believe he's taking the horse out there.

It won despite the ground at Ascot, he admitted as much and it will be even quicker at Del Mar.

Draw for all races is tonight (edit: err, it said on Twitter in a post I now see was made YESTERDAY!)
 
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Seen plenty of people saying Gstaad has no chance now because of the draw but Henri Matisse won the same race from the same draw last year and he was no world beater.

Same goes for Precise really but when you are that much better than the field you would still expect her to win.
 
Japanese horse ( Argine ) interests me in the mile. Lightly raced, already proven at G1 standard over there, every possibility of improvement to come, Dettori booked. Not an ideal draw ( 9 ). Don't think that's a deal breaker though. Took 20s ew.
I've also taken 10s Goliath.
 
Just remember what a very tight track Del Mar is plus the turf will be quicker than most. Any horse that hasn't run around a bend before could be in trouble likewise anything that's not well balanced (big galumping long striding horses are not going to be at home here). Plus factor in those draws too.
 
jinnyj said:
Just remember what a very tight track Del Mar is plus the turf will be quicker than most. Any horse that hasn't run around a bend before could be in trouble likewise anything that's not well balanced (big galumping long striding horses are not going to be at home here). Plus factor in those draws too.
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It's a f$%^ing kip. The meeting shouldn't be held there.
 

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