The 2025 Cesarewitch (Handicap)

[Danny]

I'd love a bookie shop full of you.

A bit harsh Slim. I think a fair few on here are probably a lot better than your average shop punter in fact I know they are having managed a few shops in my youth. Also I always think rather than generally throw a casual insult at people you could elaborate as to why.

I always think in life it pays especially in this game its better to try and help people get better rather than to put them down.

One thing that's puzzled me over recent weeks is why you've bothered to return to TH Slim, if we're all such a bunch of idiots then what's in it for you ?

 

[Ian_Davies]

Might be worth working out the win and place book margins for one of these extended place races one Saturday morning.

Say SkyBet go six or even seven places this race on Saturday, I think anyone who does this will find the win book margin is absolutely horrendous and the place book margin isn't as tight as one might imagine.

 

[Slim]

Might be worth working out the win and place book margins for one of these extended place races one Saturday morning.

Say SkyBet go six or even seven places this race on Saturday, I think anyone who does this will find the win book margin is absolutely horrendous and the place book margin isn't as tight as one might imagine.

You can download a chrome extension that does it for you.

 

[Ian_Davies]

A bit harsh Slim. I think a fair few on here are probably a lot better than your average shop punter in fact I know they are having managed a few shops in my youth. Also I always think rather than generally throw a casual insult at people you could elaborate as to why.

I always think in life it pays especially in this game its better to try and help people get better rather than to put them down.

One thing that's puzzled me over recent weeks is why you've bothered to return to TH Slim, if we're all such a bunch of idiots then what's in it for you ?

I get where you're coming from Danny, and I don't disagree with the sentiments behind a word you say.

But Slim's Slim, surely?

When after a winner on Twitter he used to post his trademark: "You all know nothing about this game - nothing" I didn't take offence, in fact it made me smile.

It's his (imo witty) edgy persona at play, I think.

I was on the receiving end of - and no doubt gave back - plenty off him here at one time, but I lived to tell the tale and, for my part, I hugely enjoy interacting with him nowadays.

All I take from his remark is a strong opinion that each-way extended place betting is not the clever bet some think.

And that's a proposition well worth examining.

Btw, I'm with Reverend Hubert at the moment.

Not all of the trainer's winners have been hiding in a bunker 100ft underground for years - Run For Oscar was hiding in plain daylight and I think the good Reverend might be too.

 

[Slim]

Not all my posts should be taken to heart.

 

[Oxford]

Not all my posts should be taken to heart.

good that you say that Slim. I have to confess I'm just one of those who bet just sometimes and have not a lot of knowledge but coming on here and reading what you, Ian, Danny & several others post is interesting because you all seem to have a bit of extra info you won't get in a betting shop. Sometimes you do seem to go a bit over the top ....but hey that's just just the way you rock. It's just good to read stuff from others who have a proper understanding of things.

 

[Danny]

But Slim's Slim, surely?

When after a winner on Twitter he used to post his trademark: "You all know nothing about this game - nothing" I didn't take offence, in fact it made me smile.

It's his (imo witty) edgy persona at play, I think.

Similar to you, its not a bother to me. Some will put up with it for fear of losing a golden tit to cling to for want of a better expression there really. Others might not take it as easily. We all ready already lost Gagie from the forum after Slims comments and admittedly Gagie should have just took no notice but that's what im saying is some people dont take it that well. From the Gagie I knew years back he was as good a punter and as knowledgeable guy as you'd find he was always very helpful also. In the frame of mind of "making forums great again" it helps not to lose members or even discourage people from posting for fear of being called a loser or a fool.

Tbh I feel a bit of a fanny making a post like this myself as it's a bit "woke" i suppose for a bloke who doesn't give a f%*& himself. But it's been nice to see a good active forum again. Daft as it seems a horse racing forum once changed my life because people helped me and educated me when I was no more than a desperate chancer. People aren't all the same level but let's say if you're surrounded in life by a bunch of fools you can either sit around and think you're the King amongst fools (Who wants to be a king of the fools? ) and revel in your own glory or you can teach the fools until they become smart and be surrounded by smart people. I know personally I rather be surrounded by smart people.

Personally none of it matters to me as in any serious capacity I'm finished as despite keep promising myself ill start putting the work in a mixture of pure laziness, a lack of necessity, a high alcohol consumption and a chaotic homelife I cant ever see a return to punting with any serious intent.

 

[jinnyj]

First look and Bunting beckons. Had originally wanted to back Too Bossy For Us but he's not running. However, I notice that Bunting was a running-on sh/head behind TBFU at Leopardstown in September, giving 4Lbs.

Beylerbeyi did me huge favour earlier in the season and leaps up in distance He acts like he could be a stayer.

As I say: first look.

I might have a nibble on Beylerbeyi especially with Billy the Kid on board

 

[barjon]

Certainly has hit the ground running has Billy. Hope he doesn’t turn out to be a shooting star.

 

[Slim]

Similar to you, its not a bother to me. Some will put up with it for fear of losing a golden tit to cling to for want of a better expression there really. Others might not take it as easily. We all ready already lost Gagie from the forum after Slims comments and admittedly Gagie should have just took no notice but that's what im saying is some people dont take it that well. From the Gagie I knew years back he was as good a punter and as knowledgeable guy as you'd find he was always very helpful also. In the frame of mind of "making forums great again" it helps not to lose members or even discourage people from posting for fear of being called a loser or a fool.

Tbh I feel a bit of a fanny making a post like this myself as it's a bit "woke" i suppose for a bloke who doesn't give a f%*& himself. But it's been nice to see a good active forum again. Daft as it seems a horse racing forum once changed my life because people helped me and educated me when I was no more than a desperate chancer. People aren't all the same level but let's say if you're surrounded in life by a bunch of fools you can either sit around and think you're the King amongst fools (Who wants to be a king of the fools? ) and revel in your own glory or you can teach the fools until they become smart and be surrounded by smart people. I know personally I rather be surrounded by smart people.

Personally none of it matters to me as in any serious capacity I'm finished as despite keep promising myself ill start putting the work in a mixture of pure laziness, a lack of necessity, a high alcohol consumption and a chaotic homelife I cant ever see a return to punting with any serious intent.

Who the f%*& is Gagie?

 

[Danny]

Who the f%*& is Gagie?

Strange you ask that as im pretty sure you've had dealings with him past.

Was Dingo Bingo on here recently but used to just go by his proper name of Chris Gagie. Lives in Australia still i believe. Ring any bells ?

 

[Ian_Davies]

Tbh I feel a bit of a fanny making a post like this myself as it's a bit "woke"

I don't think this at all, in fact, as we're on the subject, I've come to regard you as a calming influence here, Danny, and very good for the forum's eco-system.

You often saw the gently tongue-in-cheek funny side when I was having run ins with people here, you actually made me laugh and take myself a bit less seriously in the more heated moments, and I've seen more of that from you with others since.

I heartily agree it's a cracking forum here currently - lots of people add value and that includes some I don't necessarily get on with on a personal level, but nevertheless read any pre-race views they offer with great interest.

One of the best paddock judges I ever met is on this forum, for example.

And there are many others with specialist knowledge in niche areas too.

Right now, we all seem to just about rub along together alright, and back plenty of winners and have a few laughs along the way too.

And that's surely how it should be.

Roll on, "the Ces!"

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Strange you ask that as im pretty sure you've had dealings with him past.

Was Dingo Bingo on here recently but used to just go by his proper name of Chris Gagie. Lives in Australia still i believe. Ring any bells ?

I'm still looking to resurrect his 'will place' thread.

 

[Danny]

I don't think this at all, in fact, as we're on the subject, I've come to regard you as a calming influence here, Danny, and very good for the forum's eco-system.

You often saw the gently tongue-in-cheek funny side when I was having run ins with people here, you actually made me laugh and take myself a bit less seriously in the more heated moments, and I've seen more of that from you with others since.

Tbh I've never really understood how people become so invested in online interactions or for the matter get upset by confrontations or Internet beef. To borrow a phrase from the wolf of wall street "its a fugayzi its a fugazi its a wazi its a woozi. Its fairy dust, it doesn't exist." It becomes very easy to laugh it off when you realise that.

Its also comes from knowing deeper levels of problems. Whilst someone is raging over some random comment you have people like Walsworth battling cancer and still just being generally a nice guy and making people laugh. Those are people I admire and people that inspire me above anyone else in life as I get older. Backing winners is one thing. Being a man made of the right stuff is completely another. Personally I need some work in both areas.

 

[notsodancingbrave]

Re the extended places, for mug punters like me they are definitely a curse. Instead of initially looking at who i think might win a race with the extended places now I find myself looking for a bigger price nag who could potentially place at big odds and may even win.
Its definitely changed my betting strategy and extra place races are the first ones I look at on a Saturday.
The only saving grace is when you bet with a bookie thats guaranteeing the odds and hit a winner from time to time.
Oh how I hanker for good old 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4.

 

[Slim]

Strange you ask that as im pretty sure you've had dealings with him past.

Was Dingo Bingo on here recently but used to just go by his proper name of Chris Gagie. Lives in Australia still i believe. Ring any bells ?

None.

 

[Danny]

None.

My mistake.

On with the Ces.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Re the extended places, for mug punters like me they are definitely a curse. Instead of initially looking at who i think might win a race with the extended places now I find myself looking for a bigger price nag who could potentially place at big odds and may even win.
Its definitely changed my betting strategy and extra place races are the first ones I look at on a Saturday.
The only saving grace is when you bet with a bookie thats guaranteeing the odds and hit a winner from time to time.
Oh how I hanker for good old 1/4 the odds 1-2-3-4.

The win odds are just massively compressed.

If the horse you fancy holds its price, try asking the likes of SkyBet for an extended places each-way bet at the actual SP, as opposed to what they're offering, near the OFF.

Despite a hefty-enough industry win book margin, I doubt they'll be keen to lay much of it.

 

[barjon]

Maybe the best strategy is don’t bet on the races the bookies want you to bet on.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Maybe the best strategy is don’t bet on the races the bookies want you to bet on.

Slim, having worked in the industry far more recently than me, would know more, but from what I've seen bookies play the punter, not the bet.

If you're a long-term losing punter the bookies want you to bet on anything and everything - and will even lay you thieving bets - because they know they will get it back off you and more besides.

But if you're a long-term winner, they don't want you to bet with them at all - they just want to F off some place else.

It's nothing personal - it's simply business.

 

[Slim]

The problem I see is that punters get drawn into races like this — which are hard to solve — because of the extra places, rather than looking at the race in isolation and judging the actual merits of the horse winning. For example, I’d rather read an opinion on why Bunting is a bet at 6/1, because if he behaves and settles, he could be a certainty of sorts. So what price might the market send him off at, especially with the owner liking a bet?

Now that, to me, is a more powerful way of trying to win at betting than playing in hard races simply because you’re getting six places.

 

[Slim]

One question I have about the race is why 3yos have performed so poorly in it, when in theory they should do very well. Is there a fundamental reason, or have we just not seen the right kind of 3yo manage to get a high enough rating to get in and also stay the gruelling trip?

Belgravian, at 12/1, stays and is unbelievably well handicapped — but do you trust a 3yo in this race?

 

[Ian_Davies]

Excellent - chance for some 43-year aftertiming.

I bet the 3yo filly Mountain Lodge at 16/1 ante-post in 1982, she got backed down to 9/1, Willie Carson booted her home and that was my autumn term at Warwick uni expenses taken care of.

The record of 3yos since?

Not so hot (only four 3yo winners in the subsequent 42 years) - maybe the wfa scale isn't as favourable to them nowadays and that is a factor in determining race weights in handicaps.

But it CAN (or could) be done.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I'd add that imo there is a world of difference between getting 2m in a park course handicap, where they only really race the last half mile, and getting 2m2f in a Cesarewitch run at a gruelling pace from end to end.

Mountain Lodge had previously won a sadly now-defunct 2m4f handicap at the Ayr Western meeting in a decent enough time (denoting the race had been truly run).

A lot of 1m6f-2m "stayers" get well and truly found out in "the Ces" - they just don't get home.

 

[Outsider]

My cesfolio is 3 horses.
I have to agree with Ian about Reverend hubert.he looks an outstanding bet.
I watched the trial again and nothing got near him.he took a bit of time to get into it but then nothing got near him.took 7/1
My 2nd horse is Beylerbeyl. 10/1
I remember Yorick putting this up when it won at a decent price and then won again but it was his next run that caught my eye and the race after.
Have to take on trust this distance is OK.
My 3rd horse will come when Slim tells us the name of the beast.