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The 2025 Challenge Cup Handicap

The Fortune Teller said:
I'd be extra interested to hear your thoughts on Thunder Roar, Ian.

No..20 on the list as I type.
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I couldn't entirely put you off him.

He appears, at the age of six, to have run a career best last time out.

But, off 4lb higher, it's a furlong less (albeit a stiff seven) on forecast quicker ground on Saturday - does he ideally need all of a mile with give nowadays, his previous CD fourth notwithstanding?
 
Ian_Davies said:
I couldn't entirely put you off him.

He appears, at the age of six, to have run a career best last time out.

But, off 4lb higher, it's a furlong less (albeit a stiff seven) on forecast quicker ground on Saturday - does he ideally need all of a mile with give nowadays, his previous CD fourth notwithstanding?
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Good points. There's not much rain due is there, and he wants a bit of cut.
 
I can see why Back In Black is one of the market leaders.

His beating of the Crisford trained horse Shout looks excellent now, with that horse winning earlier this month and now rated 100. Back in Black is off 93 if he takes his chance on Saturday.

Be interested to hear what Ian thinks again.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I can see why Back In Black is one of the market leaders.

His beating of the Crisford trained horse Shout looks excellent now, with that horse winning earlier this month and now rated 100. Back in Black is off 93 if he takes his chance on Saturday.

Be interested to hear what Ian thinks again.
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He wouldn't be especially well handicapped, having got beat last time out and a pound higher now.

That said, it's close between many of them, as you'd expect in a race of this nature, and he seems a progressive 3yo, who is improving with racing.

The current ground wouldn't bother him, and if it dries out (and is allowed to stay that way by the CoC) that shouldn't be an issue either.

I'm going to have a proper look at the race after racing this evening.
 
Outsider said:
Balloted out.
Back in Back
Leadman
Billyjoh
Sword
And a few others.
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Just out of interest i remember years ago getting my money back on a horse balloted out on I think it was the Lincoln. I presume that's when they haven't made the cut. You get refunded antepost bets on balloted out horses but why doesn't that apply to all handicaps ? Or have I got completely the wrong idea.
 
Danny said:
Just out of interest i remember years ago getting my money back on a horse balloted out on I think it was the Lincoln. I presume that's when they haven't made the cut. You get refunded antepost bets on balloted out horses but why doesn't that apply to all handicaps ? Or have I got completely the wrong idea.
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It's my understanding that, if a horse you've backed ante-post is declared at the 48-hour stage but doesn't make the cut, you are refunded (and I believe the owner is refunded the entry money too).

But if some cretin of a trainer withdraws it (sometimes because they can see the horse won't make the cut) they deny their owner the entry fee refund and leave any punter who bet the horse ante-post with a losing, not void, bet.

Because most races have no ante-post market, the bit about punters seldom applies.

Apologies if I've got any of this wrong but, if I've got it right, no need to thank me for the patient explanation as I've had years of practice trying to teach Walsworth that the reason why a cow in the distance looks as small as a miniature figurine on the table we are sat at is that it is "far away:"
 
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Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse is pleased to announce he has a two-pronged "Challfolio" for Saturday's 7f banquet.

As YFUSA, in a perennially-vain attempt to appear upmarket, never tires of telling everyone, he resides but half an hour from Ascot.

And they ain't half due to cop some rain there tomorrow and again on Saturday.

Conditions may be testing.

This shouldn't bother Balmacara, who has front-running form in the mud at 1m and even 1m2f, but has only ever won at this 7f trip.

If Daniel Muscutt, in YUFSA's good books since making the stands rail his own and picking up and carrying Mustazeed home at Newbury the other day, can jump out smartly, bag the Stands' rail from stall 1 and get them all at it with attritional fractions, the beast may take some passing.

The other one?

Never let it be said YFSWA has a "cliff horse," but how in the name of Walsworth's intermittent wind issues can a horse which was backed off the boards (partly with YFUSA's less-than-hard-earned money) for the Ayr Gold Cup and stayed on well to be 1½ lengths fourth at an SP of 5/1, be 18/1 in a place for this off a 2lb lower mark?

I really wouldn't regard Oisin Murphy-Silvestre De Sousa (sure to give it a ride) as a jockey downgrade of note and I see no reason why Purosangue shouldn't outrun current odds.
 
Outsider said:
I suppose tomorrow will give some idea of what to expect from the draw with the amateur race over the 7f.
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At the Royal meeting it seemed pretty clear the CoC watered the bias earlier in the week out of the ground.

But that was on quick ground - he's unlikely to do that it the rain comes so any bias tomorrow might still be there on Saturday.
 

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