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The 2025 Christmas Hurdle

If you're going to crab Sir Gino for thrashing Lump Sum off levels as a 4yo then I suggest you have a critical look at Golden Ace's form too.
 
I'm not crabbing him, I'm just saying that's the strongest bit of hurdling form for him I can find and I don't regard it as exactly outstanding.

It might only scratch the surface of what he can do, but at 4/7 "might" isn't good enough for me.

Then there's the issues he's had, the length of his lay off and my supposition that this wasn't the original plan and the trainer has only persuaded connections to run since Constitution Hill fell in the Fighting Fifth.

Golden Ace is no "superstar," but her form looks both comparable and more recent to me - she ran a proper horse in State Man to 4¾ lengths, she had Kargesse (OR 152) behind there, she's beat Burdett Road (OR 147) just as easily at Cheltenham as Sir Gino beat Lump Sum (also OR 147) and she's beaten better horses than either in Anzadam and Nemean Lion at Newcastle.

But we're doing this race to death because we've evidently got time on our hands, the media will be doing the same and tbh this race and the King George aren't where the value will be on Boxing Day.
 
True enough, I think Kargesse might have improved a bit since, then, though.

Cracking debate - it's what these Big Race threads are for - and the best thing about them is they're entertaining and free.

I think we've both said we don't actually intend having a bet on the race.
 
Danny said:
What price makes Sir Gino a proper bet for you Slim ?

Any other talk is pointless imo.
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If he goes off bigger than 1.4x there is something wrong with the horse. He shouldn't come off the bridle to win this.
 
So too short to back at current odds if he drifts to a better price there's something wrong with him so you wouldnt back him then either.
 
Danny said:
What price makes Sir Gino a proper bet for you Slim ?

Any other talk is pointless imo.
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Really good question, Danny, and I'd say the same if it was directed at me.

As stated, I love these threads and debates (I wouldn't create them otherwise) but I had a near three-hour phone call with "Leafy" on the Boxing Day cards last night and when it came to this race, he gave it the most cursory mention: "You wouldn't back Sir Gino at the odds because of the lay off and his issues, but you wouldn't lay him either because there are better bets at 7/4. Let's move on to the next race, oh, more high-end dross (the King George!), let's skip to the concluding handicap."

That's him, but he has a way of cutting to the chase - either there's a bet in a race, or there isn't.
 
Slim said:
Yes, there should be a big gap because Sir Gino has barely scratched the surface over hurdles. Golden Ace, on the other hand, is quite easily the most overrated horse on this forum of the last decade. I get that some members have a soft spot for her, but until she wins a race without three horses collapsing on the run-in, I’ll remain adamant that she’s a bag of shite in terms of Grade 1 hurdling.
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I totally get where you're coming from, Slim, but playing devil's advocate:

Can we be sure SG has 'barely scratched the surface' as a hurdler? He did it 'impressively' (form book) but he still only got an RPR of 154 for it. Then how fit will he be? This wasn't the plan.

Is Golden Ace really over-rated? She's only rated 152, effectively a handicapper. She can't help if she's a bag of shite in a land of bags of shite. Just as the one-eyed man is king in the land of the blind, GA might be queen in the land of complete bags of shite.

She has been incredibly lucky. She really should have been doing the Euromillions with her luck but she's still a 152 horse taking on largely lesser lights, maybe bar Sir G.

The conspiracy theorist in me can't help wondering if certain people are planning on laying him like crazy (that the sanitised version of what I was thinking of saying.)
 
Does anyone have stats on Nicky Henderson runners off a long break? From memory he is one of the best trainers statistically to get a horse to win off a 300+ break. I wouldn't even worry about Sir Gino not being straight.
 
Danny said:
I think people made a lot of her being a lucky Champion hurdle winner which no doubt she was. But she was going to come a decent 2nd to Stateman and got to within about 4 lengths of him at Punchestown after that and Stateman at his best is proper top level. So It does take a very good one to beat her when on song and there doesn't look very many top class 2 milers about atm. Hopefully something emerges over the festive period.
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There will plenty claiming a win if Golden Ace does win Danny !
 
Oh I shall be cheering Goldie on from only a stone's throw from Jezza's place. :cheerleader: :cheerleader:

Win, Lose or Draw, she's given them some amazing days out and all connections deserve every minute of their success. To have been part of Jeremy's Army last March was one of the best day's I have had there and I didn't even back her - I was just genuinely thrilled for such a great team.

Sir Gino had a nasty infection in his suspensory ligament. Had it tracked into a joint, it could have been curtains for him. They were able to treat it successfully and so long as it hasn't affected the structure of the ligament fibres, then he should be fine and I am sure he would be fit enough.
 
Slim said:
Does anyone have stats on Nicky Henderson runners off a long break? From memory he is one of the best trainers statistically to get a horse to win off a 300+ break. I wouldn't even worry about Sir Gino not being straight.
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I wouldn't worry about fitness either.

What concerns me more is whether a horse (even a young horse) will retain its ability after a long lay-off.

I've seen too many horses simply not be the same the following season to want to get involved at the price.

IMO Sir Gino is priced up as if he won the Fighting Fifth a month ago and has had zero issues since.

That's quite apart from the debate about his overall level of form versus that of Golden Ace.
 

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