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The 2025 Ebor Handicap

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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It's not for three weeks, but time to start looking at a potential "Ebfolio" for the 1m6f Handicap on the Knavesmire at York.

Much though I respect the yard, I do think Hipop De Loire is short enough and I'll be looking for something to take him on with.

I haven't had a bet yet, but if you haven't seen it already, cop a gander at the ride French Duke got at Goodwood today.

I know he was trying a new trip, but you have to have some belief your mount will stay and dropping him out last off a moderate early pace was suicidal.

They were still really motoring at the business end and French Duke had no chance of getting involved.

The cynical might have other ideas, but old Law degree, never been sued and isn't about to let it happen now in this Golden Autumn of his existence here just thinks it was a particularly lousy ride.

French Duke needs 15 to come out and I've no idea if he runs yet, but he's got a decent race in him off OR 98 (same mark at York as today) and I would actually take the 20/1 if I absolutely knew he was going to be declared and make the cut.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/sky-bet-ebor/winner
 
The Ebor is not a race I've had conspicuous success in tbh.

I backed Trawlerman three years ago, but I can't remember the last winner of the contest I backed before that.

I do like the race, though, and I think the most noteworthy one in my lifetime was the one only those present to witness it saw.

In 1979 the ITV cameramen were on strike, so the racing world was deprived of seeing Sea Pigeon win it under Jonjo O'Neill.

My friend who later went to Timeform told me Phil Bull said the timefigure Sea Pigeon recorded that day was so far off the dial he refused to publish it as he felt sure it had to be wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm all over Shadow Dance like a rash at 20/1.
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I can absolutely see why, Maurice.

Tbh, I had a look at the race last night, but stopped as soon as I found the IMO best-handicapped horse (French Duke) that met my criteria for the race.

Having already been incensed by the ride he got earlier in the day, I looked no further.

Returning to the race now, the very next horse in my pecking order that ticks boxes is Shadow Dance.

1m2f in the Chesterfield Cup was all wrong for it and Shadow Dance actually ran really well to be beaten six lengths, it shows it gets this trip in last year's Mallard and it's a progressive 5yo who hasn't actually had a lot of racing.

The Ebor is a plot race and the winner is often a horse that turns out better on the day than the pre-race numbers suggested would be the case, but Shadow Dance is definitely entitled to be involved and he only needs three to come out.
 
Ian_Davies said:
1m2f in the Chesterfield Cup was all wrong for [Shadow Dance] and it actually ran really well to be beaten six lengths, it shows it gets this trip in last year's Mallard and it's a progressive 5yo who hasn't actually had a lot of racing.
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Yes, I'll be honest, it wasn't on my radar until I 'did' the Goodwood race and when I saw it was back to 10f my first thought was 'Ebor' and the way the race panned out confirmed that for me and was the green light for backing it.

Also:
a) It was ridden cold
b) It was denied a run when starting to improve
c) It kept on nicely without any attempt by the jockey to get it competitive.

If ever a run screamed 'prep' this was one.

Obviously the Irish/NH bandits - the Absurdes, etc, - will command total respect but Varian is a serious target trainer himself.

I also have my eyes on a potential 100/1 shot and am just waiting to pull the trigger on it.
 
Shadow Dance 25 with BF sportsbook.

The double with Mirsky (also 25-1) looks like fun. I reckon Mirsky could give Rhoscolyn a 6 lengths head start and still dance past backwards a furlong out as if R was standing still.....yes, it is my wallet talking, I just can't help feeling that shyster/fvcker was up to no good when he pulled Mirsky on the day last Friday. It still hurts (mildly), as you can tell! Lame, my arse.
 
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chaumi said:
Shadow Dance 25 with BF sportsbook.

The double with Mirsky (also 25-1) looks like fun. I reckon Mirsky could give Rhoscolyn a 6 lengths head start and still dance past backwards a furlong out as if R was standing still.....yes, it is my wallet talking, I just can't help feeling that shyster/fvcker was up to no good when he pulled Mirsky on the day last Friday. It still hurts (mildly), as you can tell! Lame, my arse.
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Oh chaum how can you say that about David.:)
And I've done that double as well.
 
chaumi said:
Shadow Dance 25 with BF sportsbook.

The double with Mirsky (also 25-1) looks like fun. I reckon Mirsky could give Rhoscolyn a 6 lengths head start and still dance past backwards a furlong out as if R was standing still.....yes, it is my wallet talking, I just can't help feeling that shyster/fvcker was up to no good when he pulled Mirsky on the day last Friday. It still hurts (mildly), as you can tell! Lame, my arse.
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I'm thinking Blue For You.
 
When I slightly fell out of love with The Grand National the Ebor became my favourite race. We used to go to it when it was on the Wednesday and I had some big priced winners over the years. Alas that ended when it started attracting higher class runners. I used to love watching the horses walk around the old pre parade ring under the dappled shade of the trees.Dear old Nanton was my favourite horse back then. Hadn’t realised he’d died as a 19 year old. He went to one of the retirement places and they said he was a bit of a grump.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
If that double lands, it's going to be almost the Battle Of Hastings for the bookies (do you see what I did there?) 😂

Coat duly fetched.
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I was tempted to write, "A £1 stake returns £1066 and all that..."

But then I thought, "Nah, only a total fanny would actually write something like that!"

;)
 
I'm not having anyone thinking that - I'll fight any man who calls you a total fanny, Maurice!

Err, as long as they're smaller than me, got their back to me, and are preferably asleep. 😂
 
It might be interesting to note that good old Faylaq turned over Shadow Dance last Sept...on ground that should have suited SD, but would also have been just about right for Faylaq.

My reading is Faylaq won't get in...and RV will have SD bang on point...but if by some miracle enough come out...and the ground isn't rattling (in which case I'm a little worried SD won't run)...the 100-1 on our old warrior 'friend' might have a small 'attractive enough in hindsight' feel to it.
 
I should also say...

Since we're mentally planning a right old 'the TH membership had it right off late Aug 2025' party, likely (or unlikely) somewhere in deepest Hampshire or Scotland...

Anyone who's gone for the SD/BFY or SD/Mirsky double might also be considering...

SD/Theoryofeverything 50-1
SD/Julia Augusta 50-1

Both of whom could be classic plots from you-know-who.

+ potentially Leadman, but odds look a bit on the 'low' side.

It could be a mistake leaving Bopedro out, but as a 9YO let's assume this type of race would be beyond.
Cerulean Bay doesn't look quite up to it in comparison to the others? Nor does Duke's Command.
 

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