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The 2025 July Cup

I'm assuming we are looking at good to firm ground for this meeting guys? Temperatures could hit 30 degrees on Friday. There's not a drop of rain forecast from what I've seen.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I'm assuming we are looking at good to firm ground for this meeting guys? Temperatures could hit 30 degrees on Friday. There's not a drop of rain forecast from what I've seen.
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It depends how much they water - something they have a bit of a history of on the July Course.

There's a few ground-dependant entries in my view.
 
One thing I felt taught me about watching Chief Singer in 1984 was that, with a few honourable exceptions, your average Group 1 miler is a better racehorse than your average Group 1 sprinter.

The Dayjurs are the exceptions - if Notable Speech can comfortably lie up and gets his ground (I think he wants it on top) what beats him probably wins it.
 
Quite interesting this. Notable Speech is the class horse of the race, but is he a sprinter? He hasn’t shown it on the racecourse yet (“yet” being the operative word) according to RaceIQ data

“The RaceiQ data database has logged all eight of Notable Speech’s races in Britain and reveals he has never run faster than 41.72mph. The quickest furlong he has ever managed has been 10.81sec, towards the end of a steadily-run contest at Kempton in the spring of last year.
Even when winning Guineas, when the going was good and early tempo swift, he did not clock anything better than 11.29sec for a single furlong.
To put that in perspective, last year’s July Cup was also run on good going and the lowest speed any runner recorded was 42.42mph, with the highest being 43.36mph. And the winner clocked 10.75sec, 10.67sec and 10.84sec for furlongs two, three and four.
It wasn't an exceptionally quick renewal, either. Alcohol Free had won in a time about 1.5sec quicker two years earlier. “
 
BHA - Watering: 45mm applied to the July Course since Friday, 30mm to the Beacon Course (races of 1m 2f+), further 15mm being applied to the Beacon Course this morning.
 
Ian_Davies said:
One thing I felt taught me about watching Chief Singer in 1984 was that, with a few honourable exceptions, your average Group 1 miler is a better racehorse than your average Group 1 sprinter.
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Not sure I would go that far but I would always seriously consider backing a G1 miler to beat a G2 sprinter at 6f, and the opposition on Saturday might be no better than G2.
 
If my arithmetic is correct, the [old, which is what I used for the calculation] Standard Time for 6f on the July Course (1m 11.3s) averages out at about 37.6mph. The first furlong usually takes 2-3s longer than the next few so the average oer the final 5f would be a notch higher that that so 42mph couldn't possibly be an overall minimum speed.

That said, it doesn't mean NS couldn't hit that kind of speed if asked to. They'd have had to limit how fast they'd want him to travel in longer races. He might be clocking 45mph on the gallops.
 
Whistlejacket is now 6/1 and Symbol of Honour 8/1.

I backed Ides of March earlier at 66/1. My reasoning was that on his seasonal return this season, he was slowly away, then led until collared near the line at Navan by Whistlejacket (who gave him 2lb). This was on soft going, which the Trainer has said he doesn't like, and Navan is a stiff track. The quicker ground should be strongly in his favour. On his 2nd run this year, he was made Evs favourite to beat Symbol of Honour at Newbury. He was again slowly away, before moving smoothly into the race, possibly on the wrong part of the track, before going down to Symbol of Honour by 1.75l. He then ran a stinker at Ascot, but if you can forgive him that, I think he's well overpriced.

He was 50/1 when I started typing this, but now 40's. If he's going to be competitive, I think he'll end up much shorter.
 
I've backed Big Mojo hasn't had the best of runs the last twice. Wasn't much between him and Whistlejacket at Ascot and he's over double the price the likely hood is the second strings of the big boys are either side of him and have run prominently before if they are in there to set the pace it could give him a nice pull into the race.

I was at Newmarket July last year and Jasour ran in this race he absolutely tanked through it and found nothing which made me think going forward that he wanted dropping back in trip. However after doing my spuds on him at the Curragh and a couple of other no shows since I've sort of give up on him. Common sense tells me if he couldn't feature as a 3yo then he's unlikely to figure in this. However he has a win over CD and when I saw him lto over 6f at Ascot he certainly settled better. If he were out to a big price tomorrow I'd have to consider as Maurice calls it a bit of sickness insurance but his price would have to be 33's or upwards.
 
Got a few minutes for (yet another 😂) ramble, so offering a few general thoughts on the July Cup.

My Dad (who wasn't always 💯% accurate 😂) once told me that humans can sprint up to 200 metres, no one ever gets beat at 200 metres because they tired, they simply couldn't run fast enough flat out.

But 400 metres isn't a sprint because the human body isn't designed to sprint that distance and beyond flat out, it's the trip at which humans have to start pacing themselves.

In a rare interview, Lester Piggott said racehorses can't run flat out for 5f, sure, you can bomb off in front if you like and maybe get so far clear you hang on, but you'll be tying up in the closing stages.

So the word "Sprint" is actually a misnomer in U.K. racing - the only real Sprinters in horse racing are Quarter horses.

There's also a lot of talk about "divisions" in racing - many like to put horses into neat compartments: 2yos, 3yos, older horses, colts, fillies, sprinters, milers, middle-distance horses, stayers etc.

So the idea a "miler" can be just as effective in a 6f "sprint" is something many struggle with.

I'd actually be more worried that, despite his bullishness, Appleby runs Symbol Of Honour as well tomorrow and the fact Notable Speech took a backward step from Newbury to Royal Ascot, where he pulled hard in an admittedly slowly-run race early doors by Group 1 standards.

Chief Singer didn't win the 2,000 Guineas, but he was runner up in a particularly good renewal.

A better field than tomorrow's didn't see which way he went when he was asked to pick up at the business end when I was there in 1984.

I find tomorrow's race a fascinating parallel with it.
 

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