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The 2025 King George VI Chase

Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse's annual Christmas present to the forum will include the winner of this race this year, but only if you can all prove beyond any reasonable legal doubt that you've all been exceptionally good this year.
 
The quality of this race has tanked in recent times. The roll of honour was a near constant stream of jump racing royalty for about 60 years and then, just like movies, there hasnt been a decent one since 2019. Arguably 2018 if you consider Cyrname was only really a superstar at 2m5 round Ascot. Of the last 5 winners, the only one who even has a wiki is Hewick and thats only because he was bought for ÂŁ800. It might be for the best if they shut this place down, as the race truly has gone to the dogs.

That lasts years 1-2 are both 20/1 suggests theres an uptick in standard this year. Theyve both been beat about 500L since, but its a horses for courses track and I wouldnt be surprised if either bounced back. Il Est Francais in particular, hes only 7, and he just jumps and travels for fun round here. Feels like the stars aligned for Banbridge last year with the stable form, the good ground and the perfectly judged ride. Hes 9yo now and likely has a jockey downgrade as well.

As for Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, I didnt like either having such a hard race first time out as a prep for this. The winner in particular, who ive never taken to personally, but he clearly has an engine and you cant knock his form, especially right handed. To nitpick he is quite low with his jumping and if you hit one early here it can all fall apart. Fact To File is coming in with the Spillaines Tower profile but it hasnt been a lucky race for McManus and while I respect the quality of both Mullins horses, im not remotely interested in either from a betting perspective.

The Jukebox Man is a cool horse, decent cruising speed and a flashy jumper, but his form just doesnt bear much scrutiny. He kicked off a softish lead in the Bartlett against plodders and still got beat, then got thrashed by Dancing City at Aintree. The time of the Kauto Star was about 8 seconds slower than the King George. Hes been well placed by Pauling, and is still relatively unexposed over fences, but I just dont think theres any real evidence that hes much better than 150 and that looks about a stone short of entering the equation here.

Jango Baie has been calling me for a while, his novice hurdle form was only solid, but he was always well regarded. Made fav for the Tolworth off the back of scraping in at Ascot and won after a huge drift. If you look back to his chase debut, Springwell Bay went on to win a big a handicap at New Year, Caldwell Potter went on to win at Cheltenham and Aintree, both had previous experience and are rated 155ish now, and he thrashed them, with a spectacular jump at the 2nd last. That to me is the mark of a top class horse.

He lost nothing in the defeat in the Scily Isles, won the Arkle despite being off his feet a long way out, and was finishing all over them in a speed test on good ground at Aintree over 2m4. Up to 2m5 at Ascot on soft and it was his best performance yet, very strong at the finish. He just looks to be a bottomless pit whos crying out for a strongly run 3 miles, and hes getting out to a decent price now, 7/2 after being as short as 9/4, and might even get 4/1 or 9/2 on the day if both Mullins turn up. Im definitely backing him and taking the 20/1 for the Gold Cup as well because hes not going anywhere else if he wins this.
 
archipenko said:
The quality of this race has tanked in recent times. The roll of honour was a near constant stream of jump racing royalty for about 60 years and then, just like movies, there hasnt been a decent one since 2019. Arguably 2018 if you consider Cyrname was only really a superstar at 2m5 round Ascot. Of the last 5 winners, the only one who even has a wiki is Hewick and thats only because he was bought for ÂŁ800. It might be for the best if they shut this place down, as the race truly has gone to the dogs.

That lasts years 1-2 are both 20/1 suggests theres an uptick in standard this year. Theyve both been beat about 500L since, but its a horses for courses track and I wouldnt be surprised if either bounced back. Il Est Francais in particular, hes only 7, and he just jumps and travels for fun round here. Feels like the stars aligned for Banbridge last year with the stable form, the good ground and the perfectly judged ride. Hes 9yo now and likely has a jockey downgrade as well.

As for Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, I didnt like either having such a hard race first time out as a prep for this. The winner in particular, who ive never taken to personally, but he clearly has an engine and you cant knock his form, especially right handed. To nitpick he is quite low with his jumping and if you hit one early here it can all fall apart. Fact To File is coming in with the Spillaines Tower profile but it hasnt been a lucky race for McManus and while I respect the quality of both Mullins horses, im not remotely interested in either from a betting perspective.

The Jukebox Man is a cool horse, decent cruising speed and a flashy jumper, but his form just doesnt bear much scrutiny. He kicked off a softish lead in the Bartlett against plodders and still got beat, then got thrashed by Dancing City at Aintree. The time of the Kauto Star was about 8 seconds slower than the King George. Hes been well placed by Pauling, and is still relatively unexposed over fences, but I just dont think theres any real evidence that hes much better than 150 and that looks about a stone short of entering the equation here.

Jango Baie has been calling me for a while, his novice hurdle form was only solid, but he was always well regarded. Made fav for the Tolworth off the back of scraping in at Ascot and won after a huge drift. If you look back to his chase debut, Springwell Bay went on to win a big a handicap at New Year, Caldwell Potter went on to win at Cheltenham and Aintree, both had previous experience and are rated 155ish now, and he thrashed them, with a spectacular jump at the 2nd last. That to me is the mark of a top class horse.

He lost nothing in the defeat in the Scily Isles, won the Arkle despite being off his feet a long way out, and was finishing all over them in a speed test on good ground at Aintree over 2m4. Up to 2m5 at Ascot on soft and it was his best performance yet, very strong at the finish. He just looks to be a bottomless pit whos crying out for a strongly run 3 miles, and hes getting out to a decent price now, 7/2 after being as short as 9/4, and might even get 4/1 or 9/2 on the day if both Mullins turn up. Im definitely backing him and taking the 20/1 for the Gold Cup as well because hes not going anywhere else if he wins this.
Click to expand...
Great write-up - thank you.
 
Good post Archi. I wouldn't disagree with most of that although I might draw a different conclusion but undecided yet. I notice the same as I originally did when I looked at the race that you haven't even given Djelo a mention. I hadn't given him much thought as he's tended to not raise a leg on occasion. If you looked at his 2 performances this season only at a surface level you could be forgiven for thinking that he's only won a Charlie Hall chase ( not normally a strong race these days ) and he's only beat an aging Edwardstone in the Peterborough. That Charlie hall though was run at some gallop and his Peterborough victory was bloodless I've looked at both races in a bit more depth I think they are back to back big runs. The main problem I'd have with him though is after winning the Peterborugh with ease last year he did little else for the rest of the season. He's one I'm struggling to get my head around at the minute with his chalk and cheese performances. He's not one I'd bet at his current price but I'm more just curious to see whether he at least puts his best foot forward on the big stage for a change unsure whether that would be good enough to win it even if he did but I wouldn't think he'd be far off these.
 

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