Well, personally ratings and weight pulls never enter my head (for right or wrong), and I take no notice (unless the ratings are on a DO-formed appraisal of a contest! edit: or are related to a Pawras database).
So, there are several obvious contenders here. As you've eloquently laid out, Dan. It's not easy (or worth it? on the prices) trying to split them (for me, anyway). We already have the best outsider advised, and he gets his ground now.
So attention turned to 'OK, so what might win it on class, if the rest are 'just' good handicappers'.
And, I'd say, the obvious one jumps out.
Lightly raced, won the first race in France over 2m2f on heavy ground well. One or two behind have already proven graded form. The second in that race went to WPM (though hasn't done much yet, watch out for him).
Walked his UK novice.
Only his 3rd run in the Aintree Grade 2 - a speed track which may not have fully suited. On ground that may not have been ideally soft enough. Showing speed DS probably didn't think he had. The winner Murcia will probably end up in the mares in March.
Gets his ground (though not sure why he was pulled from the Gerry Fielden - that might be a worry)
DS is already on record as stating 'it's a nice handicap, then graded races in the spring.'
And if Conti gets beat here, it'll likely be on no prep run. He'll return the stakes next time. And he's a backable price, which might look pretty stupid post-race . And he comes from the Skelton yard.
