What I would say - while kind of speaking for DO even though I know he doesn't need me to - is we all arrive at selections/thoughts on a runner or race based on the total sum of every (horse racing) experience we've ever had. Well, those who don't just blindly follow others (and nothing wrong with that in my book per se).
So if anyone rated a horse at x whatever, it's the sum of their racing experiences from the age of 12 or 13 - for some a bit older - that led them to that conclusion.
Nowt wrong with questioning that, ofc, and seeking an understanding of why exactly.
Not sure why I'm part of the conversation but ahead of last week's race I did say I felt it wasn't going to be about what the field had already achieved but more likely about how good the novices were likely to prove going forward and I was thwarted by an older horse whose older established form I chose to ignore because it had been sold out of the Mullins yard and I assumed they'd felt they'd wrung the last ounce out of it and it was in decline. It was miles clear on its old form and I spent last Saturday diluting my Stella Artois with the saltwater of my gushing tears.
A 33/1 winner I could so easily have backed if only I hadn't been so fvckin' lazy.
Anyway I'm presuming it's to do with why I/we've backed Live Conti and in my case it is nothing to do with what it has so far achieved.
However, the Skeltons clearly have a determination to get as far ahead of Mullins as possible before the spring festivals and they've already won the Mackeson and Hennessy with a mare that Harry opted for (Mackeson) over stablemates that were entitled to serious consideration in their own right. The form of both races strikes me as particularly strong (as Vincenzo showed the other day and Pic Roc might well show on Saturday if over the Newbury race).
Faivoir is on the same mark as when winning the County so they know the lie of the land with the big two-mile handicaps yet they decide to pitch Live Conti, a horse they have never disguised their opinion of, in here with Harry jocked up at the start of the week.
A very light juvenile campaign that avoided the Triumph and a nice second in the Aintree G1 despite running too free that got it a nice opening mark that they've, to these eyes, decided to hold on to for the right race, and this is an outfit that knows how to campaign for the most valuable handicaps. It was beaten by Murcia but was giving her the 7lbs. She's currently rated 140 and likely to make up into a 150+ in this second season, noted as a 'possible entry' for both the Champion Hurdle and Mares' race.
I reckon if the notional 10lbs improvement into the second season, so 153+, was the limit of LC's ability they wouldn't be running it in a race like this. They'd be trying to get its mark down 5lbs.
They have Faivoir and Fortune De Mer for the County and they had LC's owners' L'Eau du Sud foiled in both the Schweppes and County after targeting them from some time out and Langer Dan still gives bookies nightmare memories in the Coral Cup. They know when they have a proper one and they have been talking LC up like one.
Market stagnancy concerns me a wee bit but not enough to make me want to back it each-way. I think it will either win cosily or finish down the park (because something else is the real target).
But this is all within the context of the other good horses in the race having shown their hands to some extent.
