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The 2025 Longshot Thread

County Hurdle - Afadil 50/1, 5 places - Nicholls has two in the race and Kabral Du Mathan will be on many people's radar but Afadil might just be one of the best handicapped horses in the country on his best old form (a bit like Go Dante).

He was a very close fourth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle ( :ROFLMAO: ) off 130 and before that was a very good fifth off that mark in a very hot County. He'd been disappointing this season until Musselburgh last time when he ran in the Scottish County Hurdle, a race he'd won last season, and was heavily backed. I thought they tried to win very cutely there but got mugged late. He'd gone down to 120 by then so was entitled to run very well on his best form but he's been nudged up 2lbs for it so will be 8lbs lower. If we equate that to eight lengths, it could have seen him win the County by about three lengths and, for me, it was genuinely one of the hottest Counties of recent years and they all tend to be hot.

He's highly unlikely to make the cut off 122 so might be going for a penalty in the Imperial Cup but even 127 will probably not be enough.

He's currently #67 in the County field and a 5lb penalty will only take him up a few places so they might want to hold on to him until Ayr, which will be a much easier target but he'd maybe be out of the weights there too.

He is very much on my radar for Saturday but I haven't tabulated my figures yet but I have taken the County bet. I'm hoping he'll either scrape in, in which case he'd have a shout, or be balloted out, in which case I'll get my money back (but it's NRNB anyway).

It's all low risk stuff for me.
 
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Interesting, isn't it. PN says that Afadil 'needs' a flat track and good ground. But that County run on soft/heavy looks like his best run ever. Just look at the names there at the finish.

If we could get Ayr April odds now, and maybe good ground (remember that Ayr race last year was on good-looking ground, not soft as in the official description...backed up a few times by Favour and Fortune's performances this term) I think it might be a (small :-) ) mortgage job.

Sandown looks a viable possibility. It could dry out a bit over the coming days (although we could legitimately question the trainer's assessment of needs from a ground perspective, he's probably best-placed to know). Sadly 10-1 or thereabouts is not doable.

ofc, there's a chance that Afadil's performance in that County was despite the ground, in which case you might even be forgiven for marking it up.
 
chaumi said:
If we could get Ayr April odds now, and maybe good ground (remember that Ayr race last year was on good-looking ground, not soft as in the official description...backed up a few times by Favour and Fortune's performances this term) I think it might be a (small :-) ) mortgage job.
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You've reminded me that I need to have another look at that Ayr race and the times posted that day. My memory is saying the times were indicative of soft ground but I'm possibly mixing the meeting up with a different one.

The Ayr race - I do wish they'd change the name since I don't believe any handicap should carry the word 'Champion' in its title, something like the Scottish National Hurdle would work for me - is almost always classy, the top weight often well into the 150s, as befits a £100k race, is usually well run and the form is usually reliable.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You've reminded me that I need to have another look at that Ayr race and the times posted that day. My memory is saying the times were indicative of soft ground but I'm possibly mixing the meeting up with a different one.
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Checked it. I'm not mixed up. F&F was almost 14 seconds slower than RP standard and was one of the fastest-run hurdles races on the day.

Two possible reasons:

1. All the hurdles races were slowly run and it was just the least slow and maybe a test of late speed. I'll see if there are sectionals anywhere to back this up.

2. The ground was much slower than on the chase track where the fastest race was only about four seconds slow. I'm getting more than half a second difference per furlong in the respective going allowances.

Edit - Finishing %-age just under 106 so just about right for an evenly run race (fast early, even middle, slightly fast late).
 
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I'll take that as gospel. And at least that means we shouldn't be overly concerned at soft in April (assuming Afadil bombs in upcoming races and doesn't end up 3-1 fav). That doesn't seem likely, but maybe the stiff Sandown course (if he goes) will not be as likeable as an easier one. He didn't trouble the winners in a couple of races at Ascot last Nov, ending up further behind at the finish than you might have anticipated. Maybe he just wasn't fully wound up for those and PN had a longer term plan.

I'd just say, though, ...I've watched that Ayr race many times and, apart from a few debatable patches, I don't see anything kicking up. Barely a sod for much of the race, from anything. Which, for me, tied in with why Favour managed to win it (and then illustrated how fair a run that really was under near top-weight at Newbury on supposedly unfavourable ground - albeit not exactly desperate). Kelso last week looked a lot lot softer than GS, which is (I believe, but there are doubts/ question marks) one of the reasons Favour ran like a drain.

With all that, it's going to be mighty interesting to see what Afadil does over the next 7 weeks or so, and on what ground/courses. Little doubt, as you say DO, that he looks very well treated.
 
Ebf final on Saturday.
off the jury 33/1
I'm a bit annoyed as I took 25s last night with betfair and now they go 33s.
Do they know its not going to run.
Unlucky last time when ran out at the last.drops back in trip and will again be ridden by David Maxwell I assume.
Price is too big if it runs imo.
 
I see King is blaming the sharpness of the track for F&F's poor run the other day. Didn't mention Ayr, did mention Aintree (but I thought the hurdles track there was sharp too).
 
Sharpness of track, or not, most of his horses have been running under par lately.

Last 14 days​

Wins: 0 Runs: 17(0%)
Since win jumps: 16 runs 20 days




​
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Imperial Cup - We're Red And Blue 20/1, 4 places - this is a hunch bet for now and I'm half-expecting it not even to run. However, here's my thinking:

The trainers have two in the race and the other has Kielan Woods booked and sits at 10/1 tops in the betting. It's possible the jockey arrangements will change by Saturday but maybe not. WRAB is a first-season novice, an ideal type for this race, and his only entry next week is the County which he's unlikely to get into even under a penalty but the penalty will certainly help is chances.

It's rated 120 but three runs back it beat Jet To Vegas which was raised to 137 after taking the decent televised novice hurdle at Kelso on Saturday. It pulled up next time due to a bleed from the nose and then came out and hacked up in a weak novices' race, thus preserving its mark. Assuming Lump Sum stands its ground it will have to run from out of the weights but they might then put up a smart claimer.

The JTV form shouldn't be taken at face value but it shows the kind of improvement these novices can make and the County entry suggests they like the horse.

Stranger things have happened.
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I've now also taken 33/1, 5 places, Sorceleur. It's another first-season novice and has had its mark preserved by sticking to modest company. It doesn't hold any festival entries but I'm pretty sure the owners supplemented a previous winner of this race (and it might even have won). Cobden rides this and I'm assuming he had the option over Afadil. It might be one of those ones that after the race we could have been thinking, 'Nicholls-Cobden 33/1 in a big Saturday handicap? How did I miss that?'
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now also taken 33/1, 5 places, Sorceleur. It's another first-season novice and has had its mark preserved by sticking to modest company. It doesn't hold any festival entries but I'm pretty sure the owners supplemented a previous winner of this race (and it might even have won). Cobden rides this and I'm assuming he had the option over Afadil. It might be one of those ones that after the race we could have been thinking, 'Nicholls-Cobden 33/1 in a big Saturday handicap? How did I miss that?'
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Interesting this one turns out again after a mediocre run last weekend. It looked to me like he got a gentle enough ride at Newbury (although far enough off the front two that the cameras were off him from the last). Surely Mr Nicholls wouldn’t have been schooling in public? Because that’s not allowed 😁
33/1 looks a great price but the nice people at Paddy Power are restricting me to £1.50 each way so 25/1 at SkyBet (6 places) will have to do
 
Outsider said:
Grand annual.
nells son Looks overpriced at 40/1
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GL, Outsider.

I've just taken 25/1, 5 pl, Third Time Lucki. It's maybe just GATG but if the plan this season has been to get it into this race off a good mark it has certainly worked.

As a first-season novice in 21-22 it was only 2/1 to beat Edwardstone in the Kingmaker and was off 153 at that point so could reasonably have been expected to progress to a 163 second-season chaser. By a year later Skelton had managed to get it down to 143, off which it won a decent Sandown handicap. It took in the Grand Annual off 149 next time and was a shade unlucky not to be third after racing wide and being hampered late on. On the back of that it was 10/3f for the Red Rum but bombed and was then off for 19 months before being sold out of the stable ahead of its debut this season for Fergal O'Brien who has managed to work its mark down to 134. It's flashed through my mind each time that something further down the line was the plan so why not this? It doesn't cost much to find out.
 
Outsider said:
Grand annual.
nells son Looks overpriced at 40/1
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Some decent form there somewhere.

Including that run with Matata.

I'll be going down on my sword and off the cliff with the doctor if he runs, even though I'm not sure his hold up style of running will be suited to this event.

That said, if they go a crazy pace he could run on for a place.

I've got Nells Son in the Ante Post compo, so I'll cheer him on anyway.
 
Desert Orchid said:
GL, Outsider.

I've just taken 25/1, 5 pl, Third Time Lucki. It's maybe just GATG but if the plan this season has been to get it into this race off a good mark it has certainly worked.

As a first-season novice in 21-22 it was only 2/1 to beat Edwardstone in the Kingmaker and was off 153 at that point so could reasonably have been expected to progress to a 163 second-season chaser. By a year later Skelton had managed to get it down to 143, off which it won a decent Sandown handicap. It took in the Grand Annual off 149 next time and was a shade unlucky not to be third after racing wide and being hampered late on. On the back of that it was 10/3f for the Red Rum but bombed and was then off for 19 months before being sold out of the stable ahead of its debut this season for Fergal O'Brien who has managed to work its mark down to 134. It's flashed through my mind each time that something further down the line was the plan so why not this? It doesn't cost much to find out.
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I've backed this a few times this season.
Looks well handicapped on the best of last seasons form.
I'll probably invest a few sheckles on this one myself 👍🏻
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now also taken 33/1, 5 places, Sorceleur. It's another first-season novice and has had its mark preserved by sticking to modest company. It doesn't hold any festival entries but I'm pretty sure the owners supplemented a previous winner of this race (and it might even have won). Cobden rides this and I'm assuming he had the option over Afadil. It might be one of those ones that after the race we could have been thinking, 'Nicholls-Cobden 33/1 in a big Saturday handicap? How did I miss that?'
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I see Sorceleur has gone blue and is 18/1 tops, generally 14/1. That's promising. Always nice to have a market mover onside even if it doesn't win.
 
Pertemps Hurdle - Thomas Mor, 40/1, 5 pl, NRNB - Missed last season, which would have been his second as a novice, but on his final outing the season before he was a good fifth in the Albert Bartlett on decent ground so should have developed into a mid-150s hurdler before going chasing this season. He's reportedly quite a big, strong unit who might well have needed time and it's entirely possible his mark of 143 is still very lenient - he won his qualifier on his seasonal debut off 138 - and probably bounced when debuting over fences a couple of weeks later. He's had plenty of time to recover and could be one of the class horses in the race. As with all these longshots, it isn't costing much to find out.

I might even stick them in multiples. A treble at 20/1, 33/1 and 40/1 would work out at 29273/1. I could add a couple of quid to it and cover my week...
 
Two Tempting 2.45 Wolverhampton tomorrow 20/1 w hill and bet 365
Has a very good record fresh and has won on an artificial surface in the past at Chelmsford.
Has a decent draw in stall 5 and likes to race prominently so will hopefully get a trouble free run.
Looks overpriced at 20/1 and will hopefully offer some each way value in an open looking contest.
 
Fred Winter - Mister Cessna 50/1, 5 pl, NRNB - came over from France with a rating of 64.5 (<=>142) but the UK conversion put him on 129. After 144 days off he took on the very smart Nietzsche Has but pulled up. He was a 40/1 shot that day so clearly not much was expected and the jockey reported he stopped quickly. (Well they do when you choke them...) He ran a bit better next time to be beaten just over a length by an odds-on shot but has been dropped a total of 6lbs. It isn't the furthest-fetched idea that the trainer reckoned he had a well-handicapped horse on his hands and set abut getting it even better handicapped with this race in mind. I'm happy to have it onside.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Fred Winter - Mister Cessna 50/1, 5 pl, NRNB - came over from France with a rating of 64.5 (<=>142) but the UK conversion put him on 129. After 144 days off he took on the very smart Nietzsche Has but pulled up. He was a 40/1 shot that day so clearly not much was expected and the jockey reported he stopped quickly. (Well they do when you choke them...) He ran a bit better next time to be beaten just over a length by an odds-on shot but has been dropped a total of 6lbs. It isn't the furthest-fetched idea that the trainer reckoned he had a well-handicapped horse on his hands and set abut getting it even better handicapped with this race in mind. I'm happy to have it onside.
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I've now also taken 50/1, 5pl, NRNB, Lavender Hill Mob. It's shaping up as the best handicapped on Flat form, an angle that has paid off for me in the past in both this and the Triumph.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now also taken 50/1, 5pl, NRNB, Lavender Hill Mob. It's shaping up as the best handicapped on Flat form, an angle that has paid off for me in the past in both this and the Triumph.
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And I've now also added Ocean Conquest 66/1, 5 pl, NRNB - might not make the cut as it's rooted at the bottom of the weights and will be 5lbs 'wrong' if the top weight stands its ground but this one is actually the one that works out best on Flat ratings. It was unraced as a 3yo on the Flat but was rated 92 at the end of its juvenile campaign and is bred for stamina. Nothing ventured...
 
Outsider said:
Ebf final on Saturday.
off the jury 33/1
I'm a bit annoyed as I took 25s last night with betfair and now they go 33s.
Do they know its not going to run.
Unlucky last time when ran out at the last.drops back in trip and will again be ridden by David Maxwell I assume.
Price is too big if it runs imo.
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I'm absolutely gutted.went in again at 33s.that would have set me up for Cheltenham nicely. :mad:
 
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