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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Mr Whatoxo said:
Aalto as big as 35/1 now. I backed him at 14/1 last night!

Obviously this drift is a worry, but he was so impressive when winning this last year, the 4lb rise would not have stopped him then, I’ll be backing him him again around this price. If he disappoints again today, he’ll be more, or less, back to last years winning mark and one for the tracker.
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Very unlucky DO
Great tipping and a huge each way price
Well spotted
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bunbury Cup - Aalto (28/1, 4 pl) has now drifted to more than qualify for the thread. The drift is a worry. Maybe they are accepting they won't beat the favourite and will target the big 7f handicap at the KG meeting but the favourite cold end up going there and defying a new mark. As I commented on the race thread, Aalto is 4lbs higher than when he fairly ran away with this last year and is in with a shout in a race whose history is smattered with multiple winners, the most recent of which was Motakhayyel who also defied a 4lbs higher mark in 2021 when following up from the previous year. The race’s history also shows that recent form figures, or even seasonal ones, can count for nothing as the race is often won by ‘sleepers’, a moniker which might reasonably be attributed to Aalto. I would not be at all surprised if the plan was this race since the moment he passed the post last year.
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Very unlucky
Great tipping.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Erzindjan (3.10 York). I want to watch this one as he has his first run for Terry Kent. On a day with so many meetings, it's odd that Ray Dawson comes here for one ride on an apparent no-hoper (80/1). He has some old Meydan form (when ridden by Dawson) which would make him competitive.
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Another lovely placer at mega odds. :cheers:
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
He's a Monster (2.50 Newm) ran a great race on his seasonal return at Newcastle and would probably have won with a better draw. Of course More Thunder is a big danger, but 22/1 is a ridiculous price if he can replicate that run. Sam James replaces Faleh Bughenaim and extra furlong should help. Downside is his Turf record, compared to AW. I also liked Aalto in this this race. He won it last year, very easily too, and only 4lb higher.

Ides of March - details on July Cup thread.

Erzindjan (3.10 York). I want to watch this one as he has his first run for Terry Kent. On a day with so many meetings, it's odd that Ray Dawson comes here for one ride on an apparent no-hoper (80/1). He has some old Meydan form (when ridden by Dawson) which would make him competitive. Thunder Run most likely winner.

Emperor's Son (5.25 York). Hasn't had much racing, but has some ability and wouldn't surprise if he pops up at a big price one day.

Rosario (4.50 Ascot). Another one for Taryn Langley (7). 28/1 is generous. Really fancy Jakajoro for this though. Gave She's Quality, 5lb, but beaten 3l when trained in Ireland last season. Sold for 200,000 gns last October. 2 runs at Meydan and 2 more for new connections last month, all unplaced, but he's on a decent mark now and looks ready to strike. Only 14/1 though, so I can't put him on here.
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Phew: followed you at the last minute after Aalto just got pipped at the post. Thanks! ( I did back Fox Legacy, too, having had several last minute bets in the race).
 
Robicheaux said:
July Cup.
Run to Freedom has been runner up in 2 Group 1s, including this. Dropped a few pounds since. No denying he would've liked a drop of rain, but has won on good to firm. Trainer won this with Limato. All things considered. That 100/1 5 places ( skybet ), has tempted me.
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Great tipping
Ran well to finish 3rd
Well done.
 
Robicheaux said:
July Cup.
Run to Freedom has been runner up in 2 Group 1s, including this. Dropped a few pounds since. No denying he would've liked a drop of rain, but has won on good to firm. Trainer won this with Limato. All things considered. That 100/1 5 places ( skybet ), has tempted me.
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Well done, Robicheaux and anyone who followed you in. Another mega price placer for the thread :cheers:
 
Desijo said:
I agree, I think Run To Freedom offers a bit of each way value in this race.
I missed the 100/1 ,but it's still 80/1 in one place and 66/1 generally
There is no standout performer in this race and he may surprise a few here and grab a place at huge odds.
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Well done Robicheaux and Desijo. Couldn't see it myself, but hope you had plenty on. 👍
 
Was out all day at a music festival all day, with plenty to drink, so just sort of catching up now.
Run to freedom put me in front for the day, however I was on Aalato win only at 22/1.
Still can't believe it lost watching the replays.
Thanks for the well dones 🙂
 
Killarney 18.50.
Mojave River. Could be interesting if you draw a line through her run at Royal Ascot. Fast ground + the dreaded lottery of the draw on the straight course, May have contributed.
Previous run at the Curragh, in a race where the form has worked out really well, has caught my eye. 25/1.
 
www.racingpost.com

Horseracing markets are all over the place like never before - and here’s how punters can take advantage

Lewis Porteous seeks the truth behind the extraordinary betting patterns seemingly taking place every Saturday
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com

Interesting article on the Racing Post website this evening. Many will have noticed the curious volatility in many markets in recent times and this article confirms that phenomenon and offers some possible explanations.

I haven’t studied it in detail yet, but I’ve recently concluded that I’m not currently overly concerned about big drifts on the day, as I don’t know the reason for them. Aalto was a good example on Saturday. I was happy to get 14/1 on the Friday evening, yet he went off at 40/1 and nearly won.

While this persists, there should be ways to profit - the challenge is just to find out how!
 
That’s quite interesting. My main mantra is “don’t back drifters” so I’ll have to keep a close eye on what’s happening to them in relation to my selections.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
www.racingpost.com

Horseracing markets are all over the place like never before - and here’s how punters can take advantage

Lewis Porteous seeks the truth behind the extraordinary betting patterns seemingly taking place every Saturday
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com

Interesting article on the Racing Post website this evening. Many will have noticed the curious volatility in many markets in recent times and this article confirms that phenomenon and offers some possible explanations.

I haven’t studied it in detail yet, but I’ve recently concluded that I’m not currently overly concerned about big drifts on the day, as I don’t know the reason for them. Aalto was a good example on Saturday. I was happy to get 14/1 on the Friday evening, yet he went off at 40/1 and nearly won.

While this persists, there should be ways to profit - the challenge is just to find out how!
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I don't know if you watched the racing from Newmarket last Thursday but Zavateri was showing as 28/1 on the final show on TV as the horses were in the starting stalls.
It won but was returned at 18/1!!!
 
Barnestormer said:
I don't know if you watched the racing from Newmarket last Thursday but Zavateri was showing as 28/1 on the final show on TV as the horses were in the starting stalls.
It won but was returned at 18/1!!!
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Good to see the Racing Post are only a decade behind these days.
 
This is actually f$%^ing embarrassing:

"First, the data. I looked at 13 Saturdays from Greenham day through to July Cup day last weekend, noted the most common price available on each runner from the Pricewise boxes on the morning of the race and the starting price for each runner, then took the bigger of the two numbers and calculated the percentage decrease to the smaller number. I then went back ten years to cover the equivalent 13 racedays from 2015, following the same process to calculate the percentage difference between overnight and starting prices."
 
1 I wouldn't know exactly what the author (I'm not going to personalise this as it applies to the entire RP staff) earns but, if he actually knew how to bet profitably, he'd be doing that rather than work there.

2 Even if he did know what he was doing (he doesn't) how can "punters take advantage" when he's telling literally all of them what he's "discovered?" Markets simply correct to any new factor which becomes common knowledge.

3 For the millionth time, the key to long-term profitable betting will not be found in the RP, nor in any of the other public domain material that gets linked to here at TH. It might be fun to read and debate in idle moments, but it won't help you win.
 
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No Risk with Lou 2.40 M Rasen tomorrow
Is better known as a chaser than a hurdler.
Won 2 starts ago and was challenging late on when coming to grief at Uttoxeter last time out.
Is rated lower over hurdles and If he can transfer his chase form to hurdles he is very well handicapped.
Is hopefully less exposed over hurdles and at current odds offers a bit of value.
An each way bet for me in a competitive heat with a host of dangers
Currently 25/1 Coral and Ladbrokes.
Good luck if you play.
 
Super Sprint.
A race I wouldn't usually touch with a barge pole.
I've backed Son of Sarabi ew. Trainer in form, any forecast rain may be appreciated as he was just touched off in the Brocklesby on good to soft. Kamakameleon was over 2 lengths behind he's been touted for this. 5lb better off as well.
66/1.
 
Robicheaux said:
Super Sprint.
A race I wouldn't usually touch with a barge pole.
I've backed Son of Sarabi ew. Trainer in form, any forecast rain may be appreciated as he was just touched off in the Brocklesby on good to soft. Kamakameleon was over 2 lengths behind he's been touted for this. 5lb better off as well.
66/1.
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Agree about the race and when I have invested in it, it has been unsuccessfully. I did consider Son of Sarabi, but still haven’t got over his narrow defeat by the ill-fated Norman’s Cay, when I had backed him the night before the Brocklesby at 50/1 and 66/1.

I’ve backed 3 big outsiders in it today and I’m hoping Under the Radar lives up to his name at 225/1 (now that is an outsider)! He hasn’t a chance on the form shown, but Tim Easterby travelling one horse down to Newbury caught my eye (though of course in this race the prize money goes down to 10th place and he’d cover his costs if he finishes 10th). He’s only had 3 runners at Newbury in the last 5 years (one 3rd and one 4th) and his career record there shows his best win percentage of any course where he has had more than 11 career runners (10 from 72, 14%). He also mentioned this race as a possible target after it won 2nd time out. His worst run was last time out at Carlisle where he blew his chance pulling hard, so I’m hoping this time he’ll break out in front, from what may be a favourable draw, settle and outrun these massive odds.
 
I just heard Jason Weaver giving a good shout to Ambishio for the Super Sprint. That is one of the 3 outsiders I backed (at 66/1on Thursday). 40/1 last I looked, but drawn 2 might be a negative.
 
Go Athletico 2.00 Curragh 20/1 (28/1 last night) would be a gift if he could recapture former glories. I’ll give him another chance with Shane Foley aboard.
 
Retraction 8.30 Wolverhampton 40/1 Coral/Ladbrokes

However, it's a moral certainty to be palped (7/2 and 4s elsewhere) and you're a million to get paid at those odds if it does anything. 😂
 

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