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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Wilderness. Sainsbury 4.53 tomorrow.
First time out on good to firm ground might be the time to catch him.
2nd fto last season off a stone higher. Has ran all his best races here.
Veteran stage now, but worth a nibble at 33s.
 
Jordan Electrics 2:00 York Saturday 25/1
Trainer in good form (treble up Tuesday including one of which was ridden by 7lbs claimer Lauren Young who takes the ride).
Stayed on to take second in a similar race on International day last year.
Goes well fresh and apprentice claim takes its weight down to the lowest it has carried in its last ten starts.
 
Barnestormer said:
Jordan Electrics 2:00 York Saturday 25/1
Trainer in good form (treble up Tuesday including one of which was ridden by 7lbs claimer Lauren Young who takes the ride).
Stayed on to take second in a similar race on International day last year.
Goes well fresh and apprentice claim takes its weight down to the lowest it has carried in its last ten starts.
Click to expand...
Also I was at York on international day last year and backed this horse.
In the winners enclosure after the race Jim Goldie gave the impression that he was not overly enamoured by the ride Paul Mulrennan had given the horse (should have been nearer the pace).
In its next race the Ayr Gold Cup Danny Tudhope took the ride and led for a long way before finishing 5th.
The only bad run in it's last nine races was in the Shergar cup!!!
 
Barnestormer said:
Jordan Electrics 2:00 York Saturday 25/1
Trainer in good form (treble up Tuesday including one of which was ridden by 7lbs claimer Lauren Young who takes the ride).
Stayed on to take second in a similar race on International day last year.
Goes well fresh and apprentice claim takes its weight down to the lowest it has carried in its last ten starts.
Click to expand...
I've respected this horse for a while now. It's quite late in the season for having his first start in 2025 though and that would be a slight concern, so I'd be interested to see what Jim Goldie says.

The one I like is Indian Run who won a group 3 here in 2023 and could benefit from the recent wind operation. Most importantly he qualifies for the thread as there is 20/1 available. I had a nibble for the Stewards Cup the other day, but when I saw him running here, I feel I have to now back him for this.

I suppose there's a wee chance he could run in both...
 
Barnestormer said:
Jordan Electrics 2:00 York Saturday 25/1
Trainer in good form (treble up Tuesday including one of which was ridden by 7lbs claimer Lauren Young who takes the ride).
Stayed on to take second in a similar race on International day last year.
Goes well fresh and apprentice claim takes its weight down to the lowest it has carried in its last ten starts.
Click to expand...
Jungle Drums 2.00 York Saturday 66/1 w hill
Has won previously here at York.
Has had a run to get fit and looks a huge each way price for a horse whose stable is in form and who does not look badly handicapped on the best of his form.
 
Quite a few qualifiers for me today. I've backed them in the last half hour and haven't checked if they still qualify. Apologies in advance if any have dipped under 20s.

Asc 300
Noble Truth 33/1, 6 places
Pals Battalion 50/1, 6 places

Asc 3.35
Tarkhan 80/1, 5 places

Above two races: Aalto x Bullet Point 25/1 dbl.

Asc 5.15
Roman Dragon 40/1, 4 places
King Of Stars 50/1, 4 places

York 2.00
Almarada Prince 100/1, 5 places

York 2.40
Ecureuil Secret 33/1, 2 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Quite a few qualifiers for me today. I've backed them in the last half hour and haven't checked if they still qualify. Apologies in advance if any have dipped under 20s.

Asc 300
Noble Truth 33/1, 6 places
Pals Battalion 50/1, 6 places

Asc 3.35
Tarkhan 80/1, 5 places

Above two races: Aalto x Bullet Point 25/1 dbl.

Asc 5.15
Roman Dragon 40/1, 4 places
King Of Stars 50/1, 4 places

York 2.00
Almarada Prince 100/1, 5 places

York 2.40
Ecureuil Secret 33/1, 2 places.
Click to expand...
Good luck with that lot. 2 of those I have had little investments in too. Tarkhan (though I think his target may be later in the season, when softer ground is more likely) and Ecureuil Secret. Same prices.
 
Desijo said:
Jungle Drums 2.00 York Saturday 66/1 w hill
Has won previously here at York.
Has had a run to get fit and looks a huge each way price for a horse whose stable is in form and who does not look badly handicapped on the best of his form.
Click to expand...
Now a non runner 😥
 
Not sure whether I should be trying to build a pot to tackle Goodwood and Galway, or saving my money until then, but have fallen somewhere in between and have some small interests in a few long shots today. Amongst them:

Looking for Lynda 3.20 York. Was 33/1 last night and 20/1 only available in one place at the moment.

Hawksbill was mentioned here earlier in the week. Drifted to 33/1 now 25/1. Not sure why he’s such a big price. Also had a little on Dukes Command at 100/1. David O’Meara purchased this for 31,000gns from Godolphin (who lost a bit on the purchase price of 1.6m guineas)! Had 4 runs since near 18 month break. 2 of these were OK, but not spectacular, but interesting he’s brought this to Ascot and stuck Neil Callan aboard.

I’m swerving Ian Williams Aalto this week, but have a little investment in his Jodphur Blue 2.45 Chester at 66/1.
 
This one will not be a longshot on race day if fancied to run well.

Westminster Moon - Monday 6:40 Galway.
2 miles 1f Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap - 4yo+ 70-100
Trainer AJ Martin / owner John Breslin - familiar green colours with yellow sleeves who have tasted success at this meeting previously with Busted Tycoon and Tudor City.

Form figures since joining the current trainer from Andreas Wohler are 0000 - 10/16, 18/19, 10/12, 11/13, but conveniently down from 108 to 93 for this race. Last run in 2024 was 3rd of 9 when beaten a head and half a length in a ten furlong Rome Group 2 on 27 October. There was also a 3rd of 9, beaten 5 lengths, in a Munich Group 1 on 28 July.

Step up in distance isn't a positive, but entries for the Guinness Handicap over shorter on Friday at Galway, and the Ebor, suggest the horse has not lost all its ability. May even be ahead of the handicapper by, say, 15 pounds now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.40
Ecureuil Secret 33/1, 2 places.
Click to expand...

Ran on well late for third but I also had 12/1 ew in the market without the fav, plus a win bet on Royal Champion which I noted running better than the bare result at Ascot. Wasn't convinced it would beat the favourite but I'll take it. Covers me for the day. It was 18/1 when I did the race on Thursday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Quite a few qualifiers for me today. I've backed them in the last half hour and haven't checked if they still qualify. Apologies in advance if any have dipped under 20s.

Asc 300
Noble Truth 33/1, 6 places
Pals Battalion 50/1, 6 places

Asc 3.35
Tarkhan 80/1, 5 places

Above two races: Aalto x Bullet Point 25/1 dbl.

Asc 5.15
Roman Dragon 40/1, 4 places
King Of Stars 50/1, 4 places

York 2.00
Almarada Prince 100/1, 5 places

York 2.40
Ecureuil Secret 33/1, 2 places.
Click to expand...
 
Jayhawk said:
This one will not be a longshot on race day if fancied to run well.

Westminster Moon - Monday 6:40 Galway.
2 miles 1f Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap - 4yo+ 70-100
Trainer AJ Martin / owner John Breslin - familiar green colours with yellow sleeves who have tasted success at this meeting previously with Busted Tycoon and Tudor City.

Form figures since joining the current trainer from Andreas Wohler are 0000 - 10/16, 18/19, 10/12, 11/13, but conveniently down from 108 to 93 for this race. Last run in 2024 was 3rd of 9 when beaten a head and half a length in a ten furlong Rome Group 2 on 27 October. There was also a 3rd of 9, beaten 5 lengths, in a Munich Group 1 on 28 July.

Step up in distance isn't a positive, but entries for the Guinness Handicap over shorter on Friday at Galway, and the Ebor, suggest the horse has not lost all its ability. May even be ahead of the handicapper by, say, 15 pounds now.
Click to expand...
Declared to run in that flat race on Monday. At present, 16/1 best price, quoted by Betfred. A 7lb claimer is booked to ride (1 win from 40 NH rides in Ireland last 5 years, 0 from 7 on flat). Claimer also has a ride in hurdle race and Bumper for different trainers on the same card.
 
The 4.20 Goodwood Tuesday is a bit of a guessing game, but the Newland/Insole combo run an interesting 2yo called Legacy Rock. 160,000gns would be a fair layout for them for this once raced colt. Ran green on debut over 7f at Lingfield under Gina Mangan and now dropped to 6f for this £31k maiden. Hollie Doyle takes over and she is the go to jockey for this astute yard. Hollie is 10 from 47 for them and 30 of those 47 have been in the first 4. 80/1 at the moment and might be worth keeping an eye on. Draw of 3 might be a concern.
 
Goodwood

1.20 See Hector is a group 3 winner abroad and was staying on well in second at Meydan a few runs back. There was only about five lengths from first to last the last day, where he was too keen to do himself justice anyway. If he can settle down better here, I can see him out running these odds. I feel 66/1 is a bit of a misdiagnosis of his each way chance.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Goodwood

1.20 See Hector is a group 3 winner abroad and was staying on well in second at Meydan a few runs back. There was only about five lengths from first to last the last day, where he was too keen to do himself justice anyway. If he can settle down better here, I can see him out running these odds. I feel 66/1 is a bit of a misdiagnosis of his each way chance.
Click to expand...

I agree. That run, if it can be taken at face value, puts him top on my figures for this season. I decided to hold off on backing him until this morning hoping for a drift from the 66/1 on Sunday and managed to get 125/1, 5 places, a few moments ago.

In similar vein, my patience re Savvy Victory has been rewarded with 66/1 (instead of Sunday's 50/1). A CD winner (hope it enjoys the music), he's handicapped to be in the shake-up on his best form.

I also took 25/1 Sir Busker on Sunday but I'm disappointed there hasn't been a move for Ancient Rome as I'm now thinking I've maybe backed him a wee bit more heavily than I should have done.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Goodwood

1.20 See Hector is a group 3 winner abroad and was staying on well in second at Meydan a few runs back. There was only about five lengths from first to last the last day, where he was too keen to do himself justice anyway. If he can settle down better here, I can see him out running these odds. I feel 66/1 is a bit of a misdiagnosis of his each way chance.
Click to expand...
Desert Orchid said:
I agree. That run, if it can be taken at face value, puts him top on my figures for this season. I decided to hold off on backing him until this morning hoping for a drift from the 66/1 on Sunday and managed to get 125/1, 5 places, a few moments ago.
Click to expand...
Agree with both on this one. I suspect he may be better later in the season when ground gets softer though. Not sure how reliable his ratings were in Italy, Germany and Meydan, but the fact he has produced a good run at Sandown already here makes his price here look worth a little investment. I took 66/1 on Sunday night, but was also hoping it might drift further. Can’t see 125/1, but did take 80’s with a boost.

Castle Cove might be a lot better than these, but worth taking on at the price. I’ve also risked a couple of pounds each way Simply Sondheim at 80/1.
 

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