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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Mr Whatoxo said:
Enter Sandman 3.10 Newmarket 25/1.

Only run once and didn’t sparkle, now turns up in £62k Sales race for Richard Spencer. What is interesting is that David Egan rides it, even though Two Tribes, who he won Stewards Cup on, runs at York (albeit Ryan Moore booked for that one). Run Boy Run and Twilight Calls also run at York in same race for Richard Spencer, so he could presumably have ridden one of them. Amo Racing have a runner at York, Goodwood and Windsor and he hasn’t gone to ride any of them.

Speculative, but worth a small bet perhaps.
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Exit life
 
Ebor - Yashin has just hit 100/1 (6 pl) with Bet365 so I've taken a wee bit of that. I was happy to take 50s yesterday but didn't see any money for it so decided to hold off until this morning for a drift and BOGs. The drift is probably a negative but I tend not to let things like that put me off. He’s off the same mark as when placed two years ago and on my figures is better again on his Sandown win earlier this season. The claimer is operating at 14% this season and showing an overall profit to level stakes. That’s not half bad. This is his first ride for the trainer and has presumably been sought out.
 
Seagolazo 5.20 York 50-1 Hills & 365

Mentioned here a couple of times recently. Was expected to go well in his last race at Goodwood. It didn't happen, but HP says he made a noise. Scoped clean afterwards, they try a TT this time. 10f is still expected to suit. 50s is a nice enough price, based on the mile Newmarket run.

Elsewhere, Seagulls Eleven may have enough to hit the frame in the 3.00, and at a current 40-1, that makes a pleasant enough EW double (to smallish stakes) look attractive. HP wasn't expecting Rosallion to line up here (and nor was Hannon a week ago), the plan appears to be to sit off the pace and pick up the pieces when/if it collapses. Fair chance that two or three will be too good, obviously.
 
chaumi said:
Seagolazo 5.20 York 50-1 Hills & 365

Mentioned here a couple of times recently. Was expected to go well in his last race at Goodwood. It didn't happen, but HP says he made a noise. Scoped clean afterwards, they try a TT this time. 10f is still expected to suit. 50s is a nice enough price, based on the mile Newmarket run.
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Yes, I have sickness insurance on it after last time. I was about to post it when I saw you'd got there first.
 
Tropical Storm 410 York 28-1 generally

Has a good record at York over 5f, two listed wins, and proven in a big field for the first of those. Has put in several promising enough group-level runs. Took a knock at Ascot last time, which partly (maybe wholly) explains the run. 6f at York is expected to be within reach, with potential improvement.

I'm hoping for 33 or higher, but 28-1 seems just about enough.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
I'm hoping to clean up with Sanitiser in the 4.25 at Goodwood tomorrow, currently 25/1.

3 Poor runs this season after 6 months off, which followed 4 runs over hurdles. Prior to those hurdles runs he ran two good races over 1m 4f off 82 and 85 - tomorrow he runs off 65. The first of those two runs was in the Amateurs Derby at Epsom, which I would have thought a very likely target this season, having been beaten by less than 5 lengths in that race in 2024 (at 100/1) when 17lb higher. He is actually still entered in this years renewal of that race next Monday, so if he runs here, that is interesting. Gary (& Josh) Moore get some good winners at Goodwood, and this one looks interesting at the price.
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They have washed their hands of Sanitiser in this race (Non-Runner - Going) - so presumably it's to be Epsom on Monday? He has been declared there (8 runners).
 
Flight Leader 3.00 San 66-1 several

Jamie/Saffie O combination that's prepared/ridden one or two to run well in valuable handicaps in recent years. FL won a Group 3 in France as a youngster and won other soft-ground races while with A Fabre.

Chances are the ground was too fast in the Duke of Edinburgh in June (likely that was the primary target after coming over from France and following a respectable Chester run first time out), while potentially Chelmsford didn't suit last time.

+ It's worth giving consideration to Frankel's in handicaps.

Plenty to beat, hard to rule anything out in fact (although haven't checked ground preferences, maybe one or two will dislike it), but 66-1 looks interesting enough for (hopefully) a fun run.
 
chaumi said:
Flight Leader 3.00 San 66-1 several

Jamie/Saffie O combination that's prepared/ridden one or two to run well in valuable handicaps in recent years. FL won a Group 3 in France as a youngster and won other soft-ground races while with A Fabre.

Chances are the ground was too fast in the Duke of Edinburgh in June (likely that was the primary target after coming over from France and following a respectable Chester run first time out), while potentially Chelmsford didn't suit last time.

+ It's worth giving consideration to Frankel's in handicaps.

Plenty to beat, hard to rule anything out in fact (although haven't checked ground preferences, maybe one or two will dislike it), but 66-1 looks interesting enough for (hopefully) a fun run.
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Win or lose, unless it's lost a leg or the horse has his own Betfair account and has been laying himself on the machine, this is a ridiculously big price.

It shows it retains ability at Chester and it showed in France what it can do in the mud.

I'm no fan of the trainer for various reasons, but this has no business being the price it is and I've been nibbling away at three figures on the machine.
 
Talis Evolvere Ascot 4.40 tomorrow.
Last time he ran with the word soft in the going description, he was a good 3rd in the Spring Cup at Newbury last season. With the jockeys claim he's very well handicapped on that. Hasn't been running too badly this season. 50s can be got. Could well outrun his odds.
 
Seagolazo 2.10 Ascot 25-1 Hills and 365

HP tries again, 10 points for perseverance.

He had (plausible) excuses for the last run. 25s seems daft enough in a 6-runner race where there are debatable question marks over the (current) favorite. If that excuse has legs (words to the effect of "ran lazily, got too far back in the big field at York, and couldn't make up the ground"), we might see a different horse today.

But last chance saloon, methinks.
 
Haydock 3.35 If this race turns messy and there's about a quarter of a length between the first ten horses home then Rage Of Bamby could prove overpriced. The mare put up a career best on her penultimate start and the drop to six furlong looks right. 40/1 a decent longshot perhaps.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Haydock 3.35 If this race turns messy and there's about a quarter of a length between the first ten horses home then Rage Of Bamby could prove overpriced. The mare put up a career best on her penultimate start and the drop to six furlong looks right. 40/1 a decent longshot perhaps.
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Pleased with the each way returns

Makes up for the day I've had.
 
Donny 3:00 Chorus - The grandsire is Pivotal and therefore I'm thinking she's bred to appreciate soft ground conditions?
Anyone know what the progeny of her sire Kingman prefer?
Ha'way, tell one what he wants to hear! :)
 
Kingman's progeny have a 15% strike rate on turf (16% AW).

On ground officially described as Heavy it's 13%, Soft 11%, Good to Soft 13%, Good 14%, Good to Firm 17% and Firm 9%.

My source for these numbers is Walsworth who calculates stats for literally everything in racing using an abacus he allegedly stole from a charity shop in Hertfordshire in 1978.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
My source for these numbers is Walsworth who calculates stats for literally everything in racing using an abacus he allegedly stole from a charity shop in Hertfordshire in 1978.
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For some reason thats really tickled me, firstly I spat my beer out so thanks for that. Sitting here chuckling to myself then realising I love Walsworth, then I got sad because Walsworth is poorly then realised I must stop doing edibles at bedtime.
 

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