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The 2025 Queen's Cup Handicap

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

Apprentice
Joined
May 7, 2023
Messages
1,724
Location
Hampshire
The weights for this 1m6f Class 2 extravaganza at Musselburgh next Saturday have been out for quite a while, but other events have had priority and no one, not even the sponsor, has priced it up so far.

But the five-day confirmations are tomorrow so I think it's time it saw the light of day.

Wild Waves, whose in-form yard is just up the road from me, nestling in the shadow of Watership Down, catches the eye if you take his St Leger sixth literally (even if the winner did get beat, though over 1m2f, yesterday), but I'll have a proper look tomorrow.

Ante-Post betting link when I see one.
 
When people were singing the praises of juvenile hurdler East India Dock after an impressive early days Cheltenham win James Owen reckoned he had an even better one at home in Lavender Hill Mob (who had run a respectable race in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot). Turned out not be the case, but I wonder if he’ll run here?
 
It's always a race I look at and it's an even better one since they gave it proper money (£100k nowadays), plus it's usually quite easy to find the winner.

I haven't checked the weather forecast for the week but it's often fast at Musselburgh and it's a course, like Ayr, that drains fast due to the sandy subsoil (beng right next to the firth). I'd anticipate good ground at the very least but no point really in speculating for now.

One piece of advice, though, is that there are only two reasons hold-up horses win there: either the pace is stupid-strong or whichever horse manages to do so is a class apart.
 
Wise Eagle has never ran a bad race at Musselburgh so I’m not going to desert him. Thankfully they seem to have decided not to pursue his hurdling career. Adams horses are running well at the moment, too.
 
No offence, Maurice, but you said this about Ayr and later revealed they'd put a HUNDRED millimetres on the track since the last meeting! 😂

Fortunately, stick readings and then the time (just 6.61s slow) of the very first race on the Friday revealed the reality.

I'll keep an open mind as to what the ground will be like - the stick reading is always our friend.

I'll be looking at any stick reading there issued in advance and/or today and the subsequent race times today to give me a base for what a Saturday stick reading back there on Saturday might mean.

It was 6.7 there on Friday, though slit and verti-drained, and I make an adjustment for that based on my past research.

The bone-idle ******* haven't issued a stick reading for today yet, but that's nothing new - they have zero interest in providing helpful data for punters who are actually daring to try to win and thus make a net negative contribution to the Levy - but I can just about make do (I've had to learn to) with what little data they have issued.
 
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Do they allow dogs at Musselburgh? Probably too far for us to go but it’s a track I’ve never been to. Mind you, it’ll be rammed next week.
 
Ian_Davies said:
No offence, Maurice, but you said this about Ayr and later revealed they'd put a HUNDRED millimetres on the track since the last meeting! 😂

Fortunately, stick readings and then the time (just 6.61s slow) of the very first race on the Friday revealed the reality.
Click to expand...

None taken, Ian. Historically the ground at Ayr is fast and even Willie Mullins referenced it not being as fast as he was expecting. I was also watching the stick readings and kept thinking - I think I said at the time - 'that can't be right' and it is very unlike Ayr to water so enthusiastically. It's something worth keeping in mind for the future.

They hadn't quantified how much they were adding, merely going with the catch-all 'watering to maintain' line, until Saturday morning, I think it might have been.

One of the issues I have with raw times, eg 6.61s slow, is that they don't allow for rail movements. Moving the rails out 5y adds over 30y per circuit, that's about 50y over a 2m race at Ayr, which would account for about 3s. If the time for a 2m race was 3s slow people would be saying the ground was good.

Saturday's times suggested they had put an awful lot of water on after racing on Friday as the times were much slower.

But we do need more transparency about it, which Paul Kealy made strong mention of in his RP column on Friday.
 
I never just look at raw times Maurice - as I'm sure you know, the race-by-race rail movement is published - in the case of the first race at Ayr on Friday it was relatively minor, but any movement at all affects my calculations.

I would agree with you Saturday's times suggested they watered after racing on Friday.

Paul's not wrong, but it just isn't in the BHA's interests to provide data for serious punters, as serious punters tend to lose less, or even win, and that has a net negative impact on the Levy revenue racing receives.

Some consequently want a return to a turnover-based Levy, but there are very good reasons why that is a bad idea, not least because it would kill the betting exchange business model and could herald a return to betting tax.

The abolition of betting tax was the single best thing any Labour government ever did for me! 😂
 
barjon said:
When people were singing the praises of juvenile hurdler East India Dock after an impressive early days Cheltenham win James Owen reckoned he had an even better one at home in Lavender Hill Mob (who had run a respectable race in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot). Turned out not be the case, but I wonder if he’ll run here?
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Lavender Hill Mob (great movie) declared for the Earl Of Sefton, possibly as Ambiente Friendly's pacemaker, at Newmarket on Tuesday.

Cracking opportunity to ruin an OR of 97 if he gets anywhere near....Maurice! 😂
 
23 five-day confirmations - ante-post betting link if and when I see one.

I have a tale to tell regarding one of the entries once I see some betting....
 
I've taken early interests in Align The Stars at 12/1 and 10/1 (restricted at the former). Only four firms are pricing the race up but there's no way it should be a double-figure price if it runs.

I suspect when the new ORs are published in the morning ATS will be up 5/6lbs so would effectively be a winner without a penalty, plus it is a prominent racer.

Tbh, I'm half-expecting it not to run because it will only be 10 days after its run last week but the yard definitely targets the race and if they take it out and leave something else in I would take that as a route to recoup the money.
 
Wild Waves and Align The Stars are both 6/1 with the William Hill Orgsnisation (as Peter O'Sullevan was fond of saying) but 14/1 and 12/1 with SkyBet.

No prizes for guessing which firm I've arranged to have a bet with. 😂
 
Kihivah, Robert Johnson, Emiyn and Gibside are the other quartet Hills are well out of line over, though this is in a 133% book with, as Maurice says, only four firms pricing up so far - bizarrely the race sponsors aren't among those four! 😂
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken early interests in Align The Stars at 12/1 and 10/1 (restricted at the former).
...
I suspect when the new ORs are published in the morning ATS will be up 5/6lbs so would effectively be a winner without a penalty, plus it is a prominent racer.
Click to expand...

Either I've got this one wrong or the BHA has because ATS is only up one pound. That's a real surprise but it doesn't put me off.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Wild Waves, whose in-form yard is just up the road from me, nestling in the shadow of Watership Down, catches the eye if you take his St Leger sixth literally (even if the winner did get beat, though over 1m2f, yesterday), but I'll have a proper look tomorrow.

Ante-Post betting link when I see one.
Click to expand...
Wild Waves looks great EW value to me @8/1 ( Bet365 ) , yard is in great shape as you say and trip looks ideal - he was very progressive last season and has been rested since a gelding operation back in September - can see him starting around the 5/1 mark.
There is rain forecast on Wednesday but mainly dry after that, so going should be on the Good side.

At a Double figure price Chillingham 12/1 4 Places ( PP ) can also make his presence felt.
 
Wild Waves looks like the one for me, too. 2.5L behind Tabletalk last year doesn't look too bad now, given TT is up to 108. Hopefully the gelding and some natural improvement will do the trick for Wild Waves.

I also quite like Wiltshire Lad in the Royal Mile for Andrew Balding. If you compare his form v Brindavan against Invited's against the same horse, they shouldn't be far apart, but Wiltshire Lad is nearly twice the price on 365. Another one where you hope the gelding has had the intended affect.
 
Only this and Wolves on the Flat on Easter Saturday really poor. Kempton should never have been allowed to move the Rosebury card and those tossers at Great British Racing should never have been allowed conniving with the bookies to have racing on Good Friday when Easter Monday racing is so crap in the UK.
 
Personally, I would still prefer there to be no racing during the Christian Holy Triduum but have come to accept that it was inevitable that it would happen.

I also still think there should be one day of the week without racing to give staff in betting shops a day off, ideally a Monday other than bank holiday Mondays when maybe the Tuesday could be the day, but these are arguments for another day.
 


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