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The 2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Thread

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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May 7, 2023
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Hampshire
Gold Cup Confirmations
Coltrane
Dubai Future
Sweet William
Trueshan
Trawlerman
Wonder Legend
Yashin
Candelari
Illinois
Jan Brueghel
-11 Confirmed Entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/ascot-gold-cup/winner

Ribblesdale Entries
Caspi Star
Catalina Delcarpio
Ecstatic
Garden Of Eden
Go Go Boots
Hollys Graces
Island Hopping
Kate O'Riley
Lady Vivian
Life Is Beautiful
Serenity Prayer
Understudy
-12 Entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/ribblesdale-stakes/winner

Norfolk Stakes Entries
Afjan
Ameeq
Azizam
Charles Darwin
Clear Force
Comical Point
Dickensian
Exclamation
First Approach
First Legion
Gaga Mate
Graft
Havana Hurricane
Hey Tru Blue
Irish Fighter
Kansas
Lil Brother
London Boy
Military Code
Naval Light
Old Is Gold
Paris Carver
Raakeb
Rising Power
Rogue Legend
Rogue Supremacy
Sandal's Song
Sovereign Spell
Star Material
Utmost Respect
Wise Approach
Wyle Cop
-32 Entries-

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/norfolk-stakes/winner
 
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King George V (Handicap) Stakes - 40 Entries

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/king-george-v-stakes/winner

Britannia (Handicap) Stakes - 56 Entries

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/britannia-stakes/winner

Hampton Court Stakes Hunt Cup (Handicap) - 24 Entries

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/hampton-court-stakes/winner

Buckingham Palace (Handicap) Stakes - 60 Entries

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/royal-ascot/buckingham-palace-stakes/winner
 
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Desijo said:
Does anyone have a strong opinion in the Norfolk stakes?
Charles Darwin has achieved a high RPR
All opinions appreciated👍🏻
Click to expand...

Anything by No Nay Never is either fast or no good. They set their stall out in no uncertain terms that the Norfolk was his aim and a positive he's had three starts. The question now is should it be 5/4 or 5/2. Much depends on what shows up.
 
The thing about RPR (or Timeform or any other rating organisation) is their numbers are in the public domain - what you can see, everyone can see.

I'd also say that with 2yos in June, they're a bit more of a guess than usual - ditto time figures which are often based on flimsy comparative evidence the day they were recorded.

I'd be far more interested in how the trainer feels Charles Darwin compares to his Royal Ascot 2yo prospects in previous years.

That's not something you can necessarily put a number on, but it can be far more instructive.

I've been studying time figures for 50 years - I went to school with a guy who ended up doing Phil Bull's time figure job at Timeform Man with time on his side - but some students of time are pedantically one-dimensional about it, it's just one factor.

A lot of "time lords" got excited about Visinari a few years ago - I couldn't see it myself, the comparative evidence didn't seem that strong to me and I was more interested in the times of Pinatubo, though he himself turned out better at two than three.

Asadna was another more recently - his time was on a moderate card at Ripon, again with a lack of reliable comparative evidence in my book.

There are occasions when the vibe from a yard with previous in a race trumps the numbers in terms of gauging the probability of the final outcome IMO.
 
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3.05: King George V (Handicap) Stakes
Masai Moon
Nautical Force
Boatswain
Daiquiri Bay
Serious Contender
Sing Us A Song
Chess Dad
Merchant
Omni Man
Gunship
Propose
Light As Air
The Cursor
Pantile Warrior
Ammes
Lightening Mann
Mafting
Grecian Legacy
Waterford Flow
-19 declared-
Reserves: Meblesh, Criminal, Novelista

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-06-19-royal-ascot/15:05/winner
 
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5.00: Britannia (Handicap) Stakes
Wolf of Badenoch
La Botte
Hott Shott
Supido
Arabian Story
Afentiko
Seagolazo
Teroomm
Mr Chaplin
Thunder Wonder
Hawksbill
Consolidation
Dividend
Brise Noir
Serengeti
God of War
Defence Minister
Fearnot
Linwood
Shameful
Iceford
Shout
The Fingal Raven
Tribal Nation
Raafedd
Parole d'Oro
Fifth Column
Brave Mission
Arctic Grey
The Lost King
-30 declared-
Reserves: Competizione, King Casper, Mississippi River

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-06-19-royal-ascot/17:00/winner
 
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6.10: Buckingham Palace (Handicap) Stakes
Roi de France
Tarkhan
Never So Brave
Aafoor
Witch Hunter
Array
Two Tempting
Watch My Tracer
Northern Express
Holguin
Myal
English Oak
Jayyash
Oliver Show
Inside Matters
Yorkshire
Apiarist
No Retreat
Thunder Ball
Cerulean Bay
Ramazan
Spangled Mac
Run Boy Run
Akkadian Thunder
Mirsky
Gleneagle Bay
Fifty Nifty
Divine Libra
Billyjoh
-30 declared-
Reserves
Gorak
Treasure Time
Lou Lou's Gift

Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-06-19-royal-ascot/18:10/winner
 
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The second one of George Weaver's I like is Sandal's Song in the Norfolk Stakes.

Like his stablemate Tough Critic, he didn't seem particularly fancied on debut, he was slowly away, but made headway turning for home, led at circa the eighth pole and won going away over 5f110yds at Gulfstream Park.

This again gives me hope he will see out this stiff 5f.

16/1 best at the moment, I think.

But for the truly appalling 😂 music in this short clip, he'd surely be half those odds, despite the daunting task of trying to floor the mighty Charles Darwin:
 
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This must be the worst card in living memory.

Hopefully Charles Darwin will live up to the hype but the rest of the races?

Bandit Derby.
A G2 in which the top rated filly is only 100??
Gold Cup - top rated 118??
3yo Hunt Cup for bandits
The HC looks a decent G3 with every runner rated in three figures and many with G1 entries so worth watching.
An out for bandits and sleepers who wouldn't win the Hunt Cup or Wokingham.

Today's glass is most definitely half-empty... :(

(Hopefully by the end of the day I'll be able to fill it with something worth glugging.)
 

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