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The 2026 2,000 Guineas

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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I know it's a "bit" (just the eight months) early to be starting this but, being a bit dim, I've got a few questions about it.

Why are nearly all the horses at the top of the market trained by Aidan O'Brien when he hasn't won it since 2019, had some right disasters (Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy) and didn't seem to much bother at all this year?

And these beasts heading the betting - they mostly look like 2yos who may not train on and/or sprinters to me.

O'Brien didn't even start banging in the winners until after the Guineas meeting this year, and the focus seemed to be on winning the trials at Chester then duly landing the Epsom Classics.

Maybe O'Brien will return to his former dominance of this race next May, but you wouldn't half have done some dough betting his horses in this in recent years and maybe the TH massive can identify a winner of this ante-post at a right price.

National Stakes coming up soon - it's all about to crank up a gear.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/2000-guineas/winner
 
Tbh Ian I think that's a fair angle you can probably back 2 or 3 outside of the O Brien Bunch and don't think you'd end up too badly. He may well pop one in next year but it's fairly obvious from the last few years that the approach to their season has changed and they don't seem to be too concerned about winning the Guineas. It's not my sort of thing as I'm not really up on 2yo form but if I saw any 2yo's outside of O Briens post anything close to a genuine GRP1 figure then it'd be probably worth having a pop.
 
Thanks for that, Danny.

Aidan O'Brien knows how to train a 2,000 Guineas winner - he's done it ten times with King of Kings (1998), Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Footstepsinthesand (2005), George Washington (2006), Henrythenavigator (2008), Camelot (2012), Gleneagles (2015), Churchill (2017), Saxon Warrior (2018), and Magna Grecia (2019).

But for all the reasons I stated in the OP I just wonder if the race is the same strategic focus for the operation it once was.

I get why traders would still be cautious when quoting his horses for it and taking on the yard, and not just the incumbent, historically can come back to bite you.

In the 70s Vincent O'Brien 2yos were routinely very short-priced Winter favourites for the 2,000 Guineas, none more so than Try My Best.

But he finished last in it, Storm Bird subsequently never even ran in it and in 1983, after winning the Dewhurst, El Gran Senor at 10/1 and 8s was the most aggressively-priced ante-post for the Guineas Dewhurst winner from Ballydoyle in years.

The traders sure picked the wrong year and the wrong horse to take on from Ballydoyle there as at IIRC 15/8 fav El Gran Senor beat Chief Singer, Lear Fan, Rainbow Quest snd Keen in what at the time proved the best 2,000 Guineas since Brigadier Gerard beat Mill Reef.

These things often run in cycles and the betting is often behind the curve as it often overreacts to too small a sample.

But given the recent string of Ballydoyle 2,000 Guineas debacles and given the pedigrees of the apparent current main contenders for 2026, it might be an idea to at least keep an open mind about the possibility of looking elsewhere for the winner.
 
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I think it’s important to point out how relatively devoid he’s been of colts over the last decade for the operation. One of these years he’ll have three Guineas winners in the yard. Coolmore are like the poor soul trying all his life for a son and ending up with five daughters.
 
"How can some 2yo who looked all out to win a poxy Listed race be 14/1 for the 2,000 Guineas?"

I think there's a lot to like about Bow Echo, actually.

I was there when Night Of Thunder, his sire, won the 2,000 Guineas and as a sire he's produced Economics, Ombudsman and 1,000 Guineas winner Desert Flower.

The dam was a sprinter, but Bow Echo saw out the mile really well at Haydock Park today.

If Bourbon Blues or Midnight Tango have run to their OR this form looks decent to me.
 
Bit of a shake up in the betting after the National Stakes.

There's a few 2yos I've got my doubts about training on tbh.

There's two types of juvenile experience over the years has taught me to be wary of.

The obvious type is the little pony with zero scope.

The other sort is the type built like a brick outhouse, the sort that looks like a 3yo, or even 4yo, at two, then doesn't make an ounce of further physical progress after their juvenile campaign.

The latter sort seem to be even being actively bred nowadays - often very fast at 5f and 6f as juveniles, but don't properly stay further and don't properly train on.
 
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Danny said:
Tbh Ian I think that's a fair angle you can probably back 2 or 3 outside of the O Brien Bunch and don't think you'd end up too badly. He may well pop one in next year but it's fairly obvious from the last few years that the approach to their season has changed and they don't seem to be too concerned about winning the Guineas. It's not my sort of thing as I'm not really up on 2yo form but if I saw any 2yo's outside of O Briens post anything close to a genuine GRP1 figure then it'd be probably worth having a pop.
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Not sure that's true. A few of the horses he had who were fav just needed time which they didn't have. It is true to say that the 10f group ones are now more important than the guineas for stud purposes so maybe they aren't as worried about not being spot on for the guineas.
 
You'd need a microscope to detect the difference between what you're saying and what Danny is saying imo.

The recent Ballydoyle 2,000 Guineas record ain't great and it seems to me in recent years they've had a mix of Little Big Bearesque infant school sprint bullies, who neither train on nor stay, and post Galileo middle distance types and not a great deal at a mile.

Gstaad, Albert Einstein, and Charles Darwin won't be carrying my cash for the 2,000 Guineas anytime soon, that's for sure.

Benvenuto Cellini might be more of a Derby horse, but I'd actually fancy him more at Newmarket - but look what happened to City Of Troy and Auguste Rodin.
 
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I'd love to be a fly on the wall when aidan and the lads discuss what to do with each horse. Horses like auguste rodin were always going to struggle to win the guineas but the lads still really value the triple crown. I often wonder how aidan would train the horses if he had full say in their schedule. He has the biggest pressure regards future stallion prospects of course. Gstaad looks very like delacroix to me in his profile so I wouldn't fancy him for the guineas but later on next season can see him developing into a top horse. Albert Einstein is pure guesswork on what he's done.
He's is probably brilliant at coolmore but that doesn't always translate to the racecourse. Another problem coolmore has is the wootton bassetts seem to be winning at loads of distances which makes planning their schedule very tricky. Trial and error the only sure way of finding out. The guineas winner might not even have run yet. I'd wait till after Doncaster at the end of the season to look at the most likely guineas winner.
 
I think John magnier has the final say from what I've read. They listen to ryan/Wayne and aidan suggests but the boss ultimately decides if they are not in agreement hence why aidan says he will wait to see what the lads want to do.
 
After the Dewhurst half of racing's media and social media are crying because there isn't a Frankelesque winter favourite for this race.

I personally find it fascinating - plus the best value ante-post bets are often to be had by being the first to realise a renewal isn't a vintage one.
 
As usual it all depends on who develops the most from 2 to 3. A few underperformed in the dewhurst so I wouldn't be looking at it for the winner. I'd wait for the trials first then look at it. Also depends if aidan actually targets the race plus of course whether Charles Darwin or Albert Einstein end up in the guineas. Definitely a watching brief.
 
Think Puerto Rico will go to the French 2000 guineas. Gstaad the 2000s guineas and maybe hawk mountain to the Irish version. Hard tell what's his best distance. Probably 10f.
 
I'd say he's totally suited to that then the eclipse. I'd be surprised if he ends up in the Derby. Has he not got enough contenders for that anyway. I know ballydoyle are always looking at middle distance types but boy are they way ahead of the rest when the races are 10f and upwards. I'm sure there was a stat that they have won 40% of group ones from 10f upwards and that despite kyprios being injured.
With all the wootton bassett and galileo crosses still to come it's ominous for the opposition.
 
We should revisit this thread next February. It wouldn’t surprise me if Aidan O’Brien wins everything next year. A related contingency multiple to get the f$%^ing lot.
 
Slim said:
We should revisit this thread next February. It wouldn’t surprise me if Aidan O’Brien wins everything next year. A related contingency multiple to get the f$%^ing lot.
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His recent record in the 2,000 Guineas would be a concern to me, but that could easily change.
 
Thus far the four 2yo colts I have thought might develop into significant 2,000 Guineas contenders next year are: Puerto Rico, Gewan, Raaheeb and Bow Echo.
 
I haven't been following this thread because I haven't really looked at the Flat form for some time.

However, I did see the race won by the Balding horse (Gewon or something like that - was it the Dewhurst) and subsequently checked where it sat on the Timeform top 2yos list.

It was - presumably still is after the Futurity - top rated.

I reckon if an AOB horse won the Dewhurst it would be a single-figure price, possibly favourite even, for the 2000G so I backed the winner for the Guineas at that point, not because I fancied it but because I thought the price was probably more generous than it should have been. I just wanted it onside. (I think I might still be in Spain when the race is actually run.)
 

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