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The 2026 Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

I think it's the most interesting Imperial Cup for years and that's coming from the bloke who put up Go Dante at 20/1 or 16/1 for it last year.

Can't wait.
 
Wish you'd nudged me DO when the weights came out as I have just had so much going on that I missed your 25 which is a bit irritating in the extreme. Ah well - I was never one who made money on anything.
 
Well if you haven't had a few sexual abuse accusations flung your way I'd ask the question have you ever even been to church ?
 
Well I'm sure they'll give you a breather when I get suspended for making fun of the forums favourite fogey.

I know it's borderline but I mean no harm.

D x
 
viking said:
Jack Hyde for me. Missed the 16/1 unfortunately and he’s been backed in to 11/1
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Always surprises me when people come out with stuff like this. 11/1 is still a handsome price if the horse actually wins. It's as if some punters don't actually want to be part of gambles anymore.

Or, only.if they got the original price.

Just be greatful to back a winner I say.
 
Marble said:
Always surprises me when people come out with stuff like this. 11/1 is still a handsome price if the horse actually wins. It's as if some punters don't actually want to be part of gambles anymore.

Or, only.if they got the original price.

Just be greatful to back a winner I say.
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Unfortunately Marb its the difference between winning and losing long term . The question though is still what price do you make it ? If you make it 9/2 then its a bet at either price. It's frustrating to have missed the very best price but in this day and age you have to accept that and ask if its still value. The key is having the discipline not to bet it if the price has gone past the point where you think the value has gone, comparable to putting down those AA hold cards once you know your beat on the flop. If you imagine the more succesful punters among us like Slim, Ian, Pawras and the rest they could sit around moaning about the prices things were overnight that they couldn't get on at or they just make the most of what they can get. At least in Pawras's case he'd like just to be able to get on at all with accounts rather than be limited to more or less exchange only.

So i'd agree moaning about what you missed is fairly pointless but been guilty of that myself. But if your still getting prices about double what you think they should be then you should be pretty pleased about that.

As a side note there were a glut of NR's in that race so most the runners have shortened if youre betting after that you probably missed a R4.
 
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Just to be clear, I have backed Jack Hyde at 11/1. Would I rather have got 16s? Of course I would but still think 11/1 is a good prive
 
Marble said:
Always surprises me when people come out with stuff like this. 11/1 is still a handsome price if the horse actually wins. It's as if some punters don't actually want to be part of gambles anymore.

Or, only.if they got the original price.

Just be greatful to back a winner I say.
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Can't agree with this at all.

The only thing I "want to be a part of" is making a long-term profit - for ME.

If I make a horse 12/1 in a 100% tissue then I might want to be with it at 16/1 but not at 11/1.

And experience tells me that's the way to win in the long run, the only caveat being that money for a horse with some connections can indicate the horse has a better chance than might hitherto have appeared the case.
 
Trends:

Cheltenham hasn't even started and I've learned enough to confirm the doubts Slim expressed early in my Trends thread about the suitability of AI for form analysis.

It seems to do OK if the trends data is all you give it, once you ask it to refine it gets in a right tangle. I'll talk more about it on that orginal thread later, but, FWIW, here is the outcome when I put the Horseracebase trends into chatGPT and Claude.

Claude first
⭐ JACK HYDE is the standout trends horse — age 8 ✅, finished 2nd last time ✅, last ran 23 days ago ✅, OR 124 in range ✅, weight fine ✅. Hits almost every box at 10/1.


⭐ TOP JIMMY is the second-best fit — age 6 is neutral but Twiston-Davies trainer is a big positive, 2nd last time is a strong positive, OR 128 and weight 11-3 both good. Slightly outside the days-since-run window but not badly. 9/1.


⭐ WRECKLESS ERIC has the timing right (28 days), OR 124 fits, was 2nd in this race last year, and is now in cheekpieces which often triggers improvement. 9/1.


⚠️ MONDO MAN — market leader but ran too recently, won last time (negative flag), and Moore has never won this race. The trends don't support him despite his talent.
-------------------------------------------------------------
chatGPT

Two horses stand out purely on trends before Timeform interpretation:


Jack Hyde


  • Age right
  • Ideal weight zone
  • Placed last run
  • Stamina edge
  • Good time gap

Top Jimmy


  • Age right
  • Improving profile
  • Strong stamina
  • Placed last run
 
Danny said:
Unfortunately Marb its the difference between winning and losing long term . The question though is still what price do you make it ? If you make it 9/2 then its a bet at either price. It's frustrating to have missed the very best price but in this day and age you have to accept that and ask if its still value. The key is having the discipline not to bet it if the price has gone past the point where you think the value has gone, comparable to putting down those AA hold cards once you know your beat on the flop. If you imagine the more succesful punters among us like Slim, Ian, Pawras and the rest they could sit around moaning about the prices things were overnight that they couldn't get on at or they just make the most of what they can get. At least in Pawras's case he'd like just to be able to get on at all with accounts rather than be limited to more or less exchange only.

So i'd agree moaning about what you missed is fairly pointless but been guilty of that myself. But if your still getting prices about double what you think they should be then you should be pretty pleased about that.

As a side note there were a glut of NR's in that race so most the runners have shortened if youre betting after that you probably missed a R4.
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I'm not that bothered about the 'long term', I could be dead next week, if I see a horse shorten up a point or two you won't see me complaining. Keep it simple I say.

At the end of the day, if I wanted 20 quid on the nose on a horse, and I really fancied it, I'd still stick the 20 quid on at 11s, regardless of whether it had been 16s.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Can't agree with this at all.

The only thing I "want to be a part of" is making a long-term profit - for ME.

If I make a horse 12/1 in a 100% tissue then I might want to be with it at 16/1 but not at 11/1.

And experience tells me that's the way to win in the long run, the only caveat being that money for a horse with some connections can indicate the horse has a better chance than might hitherto have appeared the case.
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So does that mean if it opened at 11/1 and then drifted to 16/1 you’d leap in? To me that’d be a death knell. On the other hand if it opened at 16/1 and kept on shortening through 11/1 and shorter I’d be in and adding all the way (taking worse and worse “value”).

Or, if you left your 12/1 alone because it was 11/1 and it won, might you not conclude that you’d been wrong to make it 12/1? Personally, my first thought if the price is much different from what I think it should be is that I’ve probably got it wrong and that I might be short of information.
 
barjon said:
So does that mean if it opened at 11/1 and then drifted to 16/1 you’d leap in? To me that’d be a death knell.
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Not necessarily - with certain yards it's a bad sign, but plenty of horses drift (to backable prices) and deliver.
barjon said:
Personally, my first thought if the price is much different from what I think it should be is that I’ve probably got it wrong and that I might be short of information.
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Lack of self belief is the downfall of many punters - the market doesn't always "tell yer," as many punters like to believe as they lick their wounds and tell themselves the whole world is against them and it's never their own fault.
 

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