The 2026 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

In tomorrow's [brilliant] Grimthorpe, I've taken 25/1 Moroder.

The non-runners and the ground were bad enough but the jockey on Some Scope ruined the race for everyone backers of the eventual winner.

I'm not going to give up on Moroder. I reckon they'll find a decent enough Saturday race for it but it might struggle to get into the £100k ones without being a long way 'wrong'.

We'll see.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Meydan 2.05

Sweet Sunshine. 25/1

One of only two distance winners in the field. Worth an e/w bet.

A close third, I see, Slim, beaten in a three-way photo. Unlucky but a great shout.

 

[Slim]

A close third, I see, Slim, beaten in a three-way photo. Unlucky but a great shout.

A shame. Was very hard to work out how he could end up 33/1.

 

[Nonannyimfine]

1.20 too bossy for us 50/1
3.20 filanderer 50/1

 

[smartpredator]

I'm struggling to see why Wendigo is 9/1 and Thomas Mor is 66/1 in the 2:00 @ Cheltenham.
I think this test will favour Thomas as much as Wendigo so I've taken the 66/1 with Powers e/w. Don't think he'll win but at the price I think he's worth a nibble e/w.

 

[chaumi]

Think I read somewhere the yard are struggling to understand it, too.

 

[Nonannyimfine]

2.00 Argento boy and predator gold 33/1
2.40 colonel mustard 66/1
3.20 velvet Elvis 80/1

 

[Robicheaux]

I'm struggling to see why Wendigo is 9/1 and Thomas Mor is 66/1 in the 2:00 @ Cheltenham.
I think this test will favour Thomas as much as Wendigo so I've taken the 66/1 with Powers e/w. Don't think he'll win but at the price I think he's worth a nibble e/w.

Think the ground will suit Thomas Mor as well.

 

[Robicheaux]

Buddy One 2,40. Has some grade one + good course form in his locker. Could go well here. 50s available.

 

[Jayhawk]

4:40 race ( Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase ) - Jasko Des Dames ( 22/1) - Henry De Bromhead and Darragh O'Keeffe. 5th in this race last year off 131 and now 5 pounds higher. Ground will suit and it is probably best to ignore his last run at Leopardstown last month on heavy ground.

Calico ( 28/1) -Dan Skelton and Tristan Durrell - may sneak into a place, but his two autumn wins ( up from 142 to 153 ) mean that he is probably too high to win. Course and distance winner in October, finishing 7 lengths ahead of Jasko Des Dames.

 

[smartpredator]

4:40 race ( Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase ) - Jasko Des Dames ( 22/1) - Henry De Bromhead and Darragh O'Keeffe. 5th in this race last year off 131 and now 5 pounds higher. Ground will suit and it is probably best to ignore his last run at Leopardstown last month on heavy ground.

Calico ( 28/1) -Dan Skelton and Tristan Durrell - may sneak into a place, but his two autumn wins ( up from 142 to 153 ) mean that he is probably too high to win. Course and distance winner in October, finishing 7 lengths ahead of Jasko Des Dames.

I'd give Calico a squeak too.

 

[Marble]

Cheltenham 4.00 - JPR One has to be as good a longshot at 50/1 or thereabouts that I've seen in a long time. Fact To File is an absolute machine of course on a going day and this fella has no right to get near him. However, there's a lot to like about JPR One, especially since they put on some new headgear, and maybe he saw the trip out better because of this the last day, when arguably putting in a career best in a handicap. He gave 17lb and near enough 3 length beating to the second horse Tommy's Oscar, who is a decent enough yardstick. Again on ratings JPR One has no right to get near the favourite, or put more generously, probably has about a stone to find, but he'll jump for fun and love the ground, so I can see him pinching a place, with the nine runners and three places on offer.

 

[vikingflagship]

Moon Rocket in the second race at Cheltenham tomorrow 50/1 e/w

VF x

 

[chaumi]

Moon Rocket in the second race at Cheltenham tomorrow 50/1 e/w

VF x

Kim doesn't typically run anything at the Festival unless he thinks it has a real chance. I'm a little worried the Rocket hasn't met more than 5 other runners in a chase so far, and got pulled up on **'too good' ground over hurdles once. But maybe there'll be some rain, or maybe some extra water. There's a good chance he really does need it soft.

**too good ; the stable excuse for that run, though it might have been a guess. And it was a 3 mile Grade 1.

Comes into this off a wind op and first-time tie. Could make the difference.

Good luck, nice enough price.