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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

luckyme said:
I have gone for MILLDAM 50/1 e/w with powers
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I thought this was too big at 50s there are not many horses that will be in love with the ground and sometimes bad ground is a great leveller............
it has to rain most of the next three days so the going will be heavy and MILLDAM'S form on heavy reads 1111633 and the only reason it was not 2pts e/w was at this moment its an ante post bet and we have had no luck with them so far this season hence 1pt e/w

I also thought it was not a bad run the last time we backed it as he was off the bridle after the 3rd hurdle and didn't really deserve to finish so close in 5th as the winner and 3rd horse are improving 5yr olds plus MILLDAM is sliding down to very near his last winning mark
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Desert Orchid said:
It's [for me at least] hard to believe it, but the current top weight Tutti Quanti (OR 138, 12-0) would have been 4lbs out of the handicap the year Richard Johnson got Rooster Booster beat by Geos in 2004.

In recent years marks in the low-mid-120s have made the cut, presumably a sign that Cheltenham now matters more for a lot of people...
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Just thinking about this a bit more.

Why on earth wouldn't a yard with a 160+ horse leave it in the race to allow a well-handicapped stablemate rated around 135 to get in at the bottom of the weights and keep everything below 132 out of the handicap?

It would be a useful way to get a run into the better horse without giving it a hard race - a half-dozen fresh-air flails from two out would make sure the stewards ignored it - while inconveniencing the majority of the rest of the field.

Would Let It Rain be a 3/1 shot from 8lbs out of the weights?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just thinking about this a bit more.

Why on earth wouldn't a yard with a 160+ horse leave it in the race to allow a well-handicapped stablemate rated around 135 to get in at the bottom of the weights and keep everything below 132 out of the handicap?

It would be a useful way to get a run into the better horse without giving it a hard race - a half-dozen fresh-air flails from two out would make sure the stewards ignored it - while inconveniencing the majority of the rest of the field.

Would Let It Rain be a 3/1 shot from 8lbs out of the weights?
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Have you considered not thinking and just backing the Greatrex yoke to win the Schwepps?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just thinking about this a bit more.

Why on earth wouldn't a yard with a 160+ horse leave it in the race to allow a well-handicapped stablemate rated around 135 to get in at the bottom of the weights and keep everything below 132 out of the handicap?

It would be a useful way to get a run into the better horse without giving it a hard race - a half-dozen fresh-air flails from two out would make sure the stewards ignored it - while inconveniencing the majority of the rest of the field.

Would Let It Rain be a 3/1 shot from 8lbs out of the weights?
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One of the greatest ones. The icing on the cake was the 'bing bong' on course when the jockey change was announced. I was on course with Lord Hartigan and it was his NAP of the meeting.
 
Danny said:
That's actually one of the outsiders that caught my eye although I was probably holding out hope that the price somewhat holds up until the day and I could pick up a price about place only and maybe even something like a first 5 - 7 finish . The case for him I suppose is fairly simple in just looking at what he achieved at Windsor where everything seemed to be happening a stride too quick for him but despite being niggled and urged from start to finish he kept on gamely for 5th and wasn't beaten all that far. He has a win to his name on heavy ground at Haddock from only a couple of pounds below what he is now. Snowden who's a fairly shrewd trainer with the ammunition he has deploy Isabel Ryder for the first time on himto claim 5lbs. As I've said previously I haven't really got my finger on the pulse these days and I'm unsure of who she is but she is operating a 16% strike rate this season with plenty of placed efforts so I'm presuming she's fairly decent. The claim puts him 8lb better off for the six lengths with Hot fuss and he's 4 times the price. I think the lengths beaten are a fair reflection as the way the race was run nothing was really left to the imagination. I'd really struggle to think that at least 1 or 2 of the lesser exposed wouldn't beat him and probably a couple more but I'd think he'd be in the sake up for minor honours.

I'm not really sure how all these place markets work with the bookies as it wasn't something I looked at when I used to punt but I'd imagine at you'd get a similar price to him finishing in the first 5 or 6 as what you would as the Skelton horse winning which to me might be the better bet.

Well you can strike all that as Lucky me moves markets the things halved in price now. Blink and you miss em folks.
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Danny we actually had 2pts e/w on it in that race you spoke about so really I am taking my old man's advise.....always look for yer money were you lost it.
 
Tbf Lucky thats not really a bad record when you consider the prices of most of them.

In fact 3 of those got placed first five at big prices. So if you had a £1 each way on all those selections you're actually in profit. And that's at industry SP not early prices.
 
luckyme said:
Danny we actually had 2pts e/w on it in that race you spoke about so really I am taking my old man's advise.....always look for yer money were you lost it.
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You've certainly got the best of the prices and with a going stick read of 3.3 on the hurdle course I think you have a great bet. I completely missed the bus with that one but good luck.
 
Slim said:
Have you considered not thinking and just backing the Greatrex yoke to win the Schwepps?
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I've watched its races this season.

My first thought was that nothing that ran against it then will beat it now but I've come back round to the idea that Let It Rain (124) is probably another Joyeuse who won this off 123 and two runs later was competing off 142 in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle, probably the equivalent of 146/147 over here. Certainly based on her NHF form she could be in that bracket. Quite a few of those around her in the handicap were 20lbs inferior in that discipline.

What was the winner your referenced Lord H in above?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've watched its races this season.

My first thought was that nothing that ran against it then will beat it now but I've come back round to the idea that Let It Rain (124) is probably another Joyeuse who won this off 123 and two runs later was competing off 142 in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle, probably the equivalent of 146/147 over here. Certainly based on her NHF form she could be in that bracket. Quite a few of those around her in the handicap were 20lbs inferior in that discipline.

What was the winner your referenced Lord H in above?
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Full Result 5.45 Cheltenham | 18 March 2004 | Racing Post

Full Race Result from the 5.45 at Cheltenham on 18th March 2004.
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've watched its races this season.

My first thought was that nothing that ran against it then will beat it now but I've come back round to the idea that Let It Rain (124) is probably another Joyeuse who won this off 123 and two runs later was competing off 142 in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle, probably the equivalent of 146/147 over here. Certainly based on her NHF form she could be in that bracket. Quite a few of those around her in the handicap were 20lbs inferior in that discipline.

What was the winner your referenced Lord H in above?
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I'm surprised you've got sucked in by the Skelton horse. It's all priced in. All In You is ridiculously well handicapped off 129. He'll be about 141 by seasons end.
 
Of course!

Caused a bit of a stink at the time.

Saturday's top weight would have had 10-0 in that race as well. Changed days.
 
Slim said:
I'm surprised you've got sucked in by the Skelton horse. It's all priced in. All In You is ridiculously well handicapped off 129. He'll be about 141 by seasons end.
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I haven't backed it yet and my plan is just to have enough on it to cover all my other bets on the day.

I can also see AIY being 140+ in due course but if LIR is already a mid-140s they've kept a lid on then 11/4 might look generous at half three on Saturday. I do get that the price suggests it is the case when it hasn't yet been proven but it's maybe a gift horse whose mouth we shouldn't be inspecting too closely.

FWIW, I'm also interested in the top weight. I reckon it is probably a 150+ horse already.
 
Slim said:
I'm surprised you've got sucked in by the Skelton horse. It's all priced in. All In You is ridiculously well handicapped off 129. He'll be about 141 by seasons end.
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I agree with you Slim but don't you think most of the form goes out of the window when it's as heavy as it's looking like being on Saturday. It puts me off completely I just think these races end up being a case of whatever goes through the ground features in the finish, whilst everything else just gets beaten a distance.
 
As oft stated Newbury racecourse is nearby for me - and we haven't half had some rain!

And as we know the Hurdles course tends to be more testing than the Chase course.
 
Milldam 12/1 now ...a crazy price considering his only real thing in his favour is the heavy going but as I said earlier during the week the heavy ground can be a great leveller but should be 16s or 20s at least
 
Barjon has said " Un Sens A La Vie " and it looks that it has a good chance (y) but I would bet win only

I've also been pondering about Wellington Arch as an e/way bet & maybe his last race at Windsor in Jan when he was 9th was just because he needed the run after a long break. He seems to be @ 18/1
Not sure yet...some people seem to suggest that Jonjo O'Neill Jr can't judge pace & can be a poor finisher
 
Oxford said:
Barjon has said " Un Sens A La Vie " and it looks that it has a good chance (y) but I would bet win only

I've also been pondering about Wellington Arch as an e/way bet & maybe his last race at Windsor in Jan when he was 9th was just because he needed the run after a long break. He seems to be @ 18/1
Not sure yet...some people seem to suggest that Jonjo O'Neill Jr can't judge pace & can be a poor finisher
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It looked like a cobweb blower at Windsor, your right about the jockey as well

He's a 2 and a half miler but on this ground it might suit one
 

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