The alternative Cheltenham Thread

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SlimChance

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This is the time of year when a lot of you will be putting together your Cheltenham portfolios. Some of you may overlook some good each way oppurtunities to get a small outlay of money in very good to add to you festival artillery. I'm going to use this thread to point these out as we go along. Please feel free to add your own.

Cheltenham Day 1

Just like last year we are looking at 4 short price Willie Mullins favourites. Bookmakers in general have only laid these horses and may be underestimating some animals further down the list. What I'm looking for here is a horse that is certain to run with strong place prospects.

Supreme Novice

A few judges on the forum and in the media think Altior has very strong form. It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to see him being second or third fav in an otherwise shallow betting market. 7/4 to place right now is worthy of being on the shortlist. Buveur Dair at 12/1 would also make it but its only available with Sportingodds.

Arkle

This is the second best e/w race at Cheltenham right now. I'd love to hear any strong opinions on horse to make the frame in this. I'll nominate Ar Mad at 16/1 because 4/1 to place is more likely to be around 5/2 if lining up. Its a great race for multiples.

Champion Hurdle

Easily the best e/w race of the festival for the third year in a row. Its hard to back anything e/w at this stage and NOT get your money in good. Last year I spent the months building up to the race getting Jexki 6/4 to place into as many multiples as possible. It was an expensive mistake but the BSP was 2.0 so I can't really complain.

Identify Thief at 7/2 to place could be as low as 9/4 at the off.

So an example.

A €10 e/w double with both placing:

Ar Mad 16/1
Identify Thief 14/1

Pays €225
Projected BSP place double pays €113.75

A €5 e/w treble with all three placing:

Altior 7/1
Ar Mad 16/1
Identify Thief 14/1

Pays €299.38
Projected BSP place double pays €119.43
 
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I'd argue the second day is even more of a good bad each way day.

RSA - NMH and More of That are both too short. I like Native River at 25s. Hated Kempton in the Feltham but finished the race really well - 25/1

QM - Felix Yonger and Gods Own are both 33s NRNB at 365
 
Euronymous said:
I'd argue the second day is even more of a good bad each way day.

RSA - NMH and More of That are both too short. I like Native River at 25s. Hated Kempton in the Feltham but finished the race really well - 25/1

QM - Felix Yonger and Gods Own are both 33s NRNB at 365
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Its certainly not better but I'll agree it offers good oppurtunities. The RSA had the dead 8 last year so anyone who found a runner e/w did well before the tapes went up.
 
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More my type of bets these. E/W trebles and Accas where happy to take bigger price for the place payout. Win clearly a bonus.

Day one still up in the air atm for me and can see one drifting so will wait. Some of mine rest later in the week. Though Buveur Dair would be my idea in the Supreme atm.
 
If it was guaranteed KV was RSA bound then he'd do for me. Surely won't pitch him in the JLT!
 
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Frankel said:
More my type of bets these. E/W trebles and Accas where happy to take bigger price for the place payout. Win clearly a bonus.

Day one still up in the air atm for me and can see one drifting so will wait. Some of mine rest later in the week. Though Buveur Dair would be my idea in the Supreme atm.
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What do you like in the other races with prices still available right now?
 
My kind of thread also; thanks Slim.

I have found it better to wait until the day though as I have a drawer full of dud ante post slips !

By the way, does NRNB in races at the moment apply to multiple bets also ?
 
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edgt said:
My kind of thread also; thanks Slim.

I have found it better to wait until the day though as I have a drawer full of dud ante post slips !
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I will too but if there is one to cash in it will be all worthwhile!

National Hunt Chase

Why is there a chunk of cash trying to back Rule The World for the National Hunt Chase at 10/1?
 
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Nichols Canyon @ 7/1 must be an E/W steal
It's far from certain he will end up there but I've been nibbling at the 50s for Windsor Park for the CH too
Jonjo's JLT talk has pissed me off but If More Of That runs where he should In the RSA there's no way IMO he's out of the 3
 
edgt said:
By the way, does NRNB in races at the moment apply to multiple bets also ?
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If you have a double on one NRNB race and another that isn't and the latter is a NR you lose your stake. To be avoided at this stage

Bet 365 are NRNB (only firm at the moment) about the Ryanair. Champagne West (25) Vibrato Valtat (14) Valseur Lido (12) and Apache Stronghold (20) are all viable prices given how this race could eventually look if Vautour and Cue Card go for the Gold Cup
 
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Lovely thread, cheers Slim.

I have an ew acca every day at Cheltenham and have had a bit of success over the years. I form opinions the nearer we get to Cheltenham and so far these bets are looking likely:

Altior at 7/1 in the Supreme
Peace and Co at 16/1 in the CH
Bitofapuzzle at 16/1 in the Mares
God's Own at 33/1 in the QMCC
Aux Ptits Soins at 16/1 in the WH
RTR at 20/1 in the GC
Croco Bay at 16/1 in the Grand Annual.
 
Extremely unlikely that both Annie and Vroum Vroum Mag will run in the Mares so Polly Peachum is a decent e/w price @ 12/1.

Especially considering there are slight chances that Annie will go World Hurdle or not be ready in time.
 
Looking through the bookmaker lists some of the firms have some stale prices. There is definitely an angle in attacking these in best price multiples. Its more a case of find the firm and then the bets rather than the other way around.
 
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Good thread. I've been thinking about having some each way bets in the Ryanair. Vautour makes the market but I still think he's more likely to be sent to the gold cup (wrongly in my view).

Half of the horses quoted won't run so there's money to be made if we can work out the running plans.
 
Ivanovich Gorbatov is a great example of horse the firms made a bollocks of pricing.He's shortened from 9/1 to 4/1 without anything happening since his last run.

How short can he go off?
 
Ma Filleule Ryanair 25. Runner up last year, most of the runners listed in the betting will go for Gold. Will go off single figures.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
Lovely thread, cheers Slim.
Bitofapuzzle at 16/1 in the Mares
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She's going down the RSA route I think Len

I''m with Euro and think the Ryanair is worth firing a few darts at. Road to Riches would interest me most, but 25/1 Champagne West and 16/1 Sound Investment are worthy of going in a few multis
 
I am still of the view that Nichols Canyon will run in the World Hurdle (20s) and should be doubled EW with Black Hercules (10s) in the NH chase.
 
Re: Vatour Ryanair

This brings up an excellent anomaly in the markets



Race .......................Betfair...........With A Run
Chamoion Chase.........13.5..................3.5
Ryanair......................3.05................2.0
Gold Cup....................10.5.................7.0

This implies that his odds to run in the race:

1/2 Gold Cuo
1/2 Ryanair
3/1 Champion Chase

At 160% he obviously the wrong price for one of these races. Do you know which one he will run in? More importantly, does Willie?!
 
Is he really going to throw a race away when he has the fav in the other. Would be bonkers.
 
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