The Cambridgeshire

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
13,884
Watch any bets on Sacred Act, he is "99% unlikely" to be declared, John Gosden says horse is stiff over a hindquarter this evening.
 
I wish someone had told me Magnus Maximus might not run last week.

I especially wish they had told me before I backed it ante-post on the Thursday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wish someone had told me Magnus Maximus might not run last week.

I especially wish they had told me before I backed it ante-post on the Thursday.
Click to expand...

Can't lay my hands on the quote but the horse became quite unwell at the course early afternoon on Saturday and was withdrawn on vet's advice. It wasn't ground-related (which was my initial reaction).
 
Yeah Gus I read he was cast in his box and had hurt his neck.

Shame for connections and ante post backers but I'm sure there will be other days as he was looking a progressive animal.
 
OK, thanks, gus. I wasn't aware. I tend only to watch the races and do other things when the guff is on. I'd presumed he and the other non-runner were taken out on account of the draw with other excuses being offered.

My brother (who, along with another brother, had backed the thing on my advice on Friday afternoon) was on the phone asking if he lost his money. I told him I didn't think so as he backed it on Friday afternoon so his wasn't an ante-post bet. Needless to say, he had a good laugh at my expense.

Anyway, I hope to have better luck with the Cambridgeshire which has been kinder to me down the years but I haven't started to look at the form yet in case I got tempted into another fruitless ante-post punt.
 
I have to back Stipulate in the Cambs tomorrow, before he got packed off to Australia I had the proud record of only backing him on his only 2 victories in Britain, in the Fielden stakes and on his debut at Leicester.

That's as good a reason as any for me but the fact that Brian Ellison takes 7lb off him with decent claimer Oisin Orr and that Stipulate's former trainer' dear old Sir Henry Cecil said that 1m1f was his best trip just clinches it!
 
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I thought Spark Plug would win a big handicap last season, so I'm sticking with him tomorrow. I'd kick myself if I deserted him in a race like this and he won.
 
shoved 20 quid on each of these..tough race as usual


<colgroup><col width="220"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 220, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Banksea
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Third Time Lucky(IRE)
[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"] Very Talented(IRE)
[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Far side (low): Third Time Lucky & Master The World with Chil The Kite entitled to run very well on his best form.

Near side: I expect Bravo Zolo to win this side with Erik The Red probably the main danger from Carry On Derek.

I reckon Bancnuanaheireann is the best rank outsider for those with a sense of adventure.
 
I like Gm Hopkins, Ryan Moore has won both times he has ridden him and the horse does well in hurly burly types of races.
 
Might be stale news but I've just had an email from RUK to say Skybet are paying out on first six in this race
 
I think they'll split into three groups. Yesterdays consolation race suggested that there was no disadvantage racing down the middle.
 
thought i'd have another look in a bit more depth at this race

Looking at the past runnings of the Cambridgeshire and Silver Cambrideshire and how trainers runners performed in those races gives some interesting figures. 17 races and 466 runners to go at..using this method that is plenty of data...extracting as much info from little data is key.

For this i've calculated the % of the field a trainer's horse's beats compared to the % the Betfair SP odds suggest each horse of the particular trainer should have beat...this gives a clearer picture of whether a trainers horses perform to what is expected..and gives more data to make a decision than the usual winners or places..which is flakey anyway...in races like these with so many runners..the % beaten method gives a more accurate picture. Even from a low number of runners you can glean some decent info.

An IV of 1.00 shows horses perform as expected.....above = better ..less = worse.

These are the market leaders

00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000% of field beat0000expected %0000000IV

Luca Cumani00000000Banksea000000000010 runners00000000000080%00000000000000051%0000000001.56
Saeed Bin Suroor000Very Talented000009 runners00000000000045%00000000000000046%0000000000.97
R A Fahey00000000003rd Time Lucky00014 runners00000000000037%00000000000000037%0000000001.00
B Meehan00000000000Spark Plug000000005 runners00000000000050%00000000000000030%0000000001.64
D B O'Meara00000000Treasury Notes00015 runners00000000000050%00000000000000042%0000000001.19
J Noseda00000000000Brave Zolo0000000 8 runners00000000000043%00000000000000046%0000000000.92
B Ellison0000000000Stipulate0000000023 runners00000000000052%00000000000000036%0000000001.45

no cambridgeshire data for Fanshawe so have used B handicaps at middle distances with 16+ runners..he has had 11 runners in such races

J Fanshawe0000000000Knight Owl0000000011 runners000000000056%00000000000000058%0000000010.96

looking at those figures its fair to say that BANKSEA.....SPARK PLUG...STIPULATE will give above par runs compared to their odds based on how well the trainers have performed in the past in either cambs race.
 
An enjoyable days racing no doubt about that but I think I've had an epiphany similar to the one I had after this years Grand National
After snaffling some 40/1 on Holywell and 66/1 on Buywise I was feeling extremely smug, only to see one tailed off after jumping like a pig and the other fall at the 2nd fence.
These sort of races are exciting and interesting to watch for us as racing fans but they are NOT for serious betting!
 
Well done Marble and EC1 with Spark Plug.

I'm in the middle of a very moderate run of punting. Been getting some money back lately but nowhere near enough to cover outlay but today was a serious wipeout.

I think I'll have to be ultra-selective between now and the end of the season.
 
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