The Cesarewitch (and the other races)

34 runners, now there's a race for trends analysis. How do we reduce the field to a manageable shortlist?

Off the top of my head, I'd want horses with no more than 6 runs so far this season; a win over at least 2m, hurdles included; at least one win this season. I would also give extra attention to horses from NH stables and less attention to younger horses.

Does that list have any validity? And what else should we take into account? I've heard some say the draw is a big factor. Given the number of runners it probably is.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Favourite St Michel has got in as number 33 in the 34-runner race
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even though it looks a handicap snip..it will need to be to overcome the number of lbs that draw will cost it

the average beaten opponent IV in the cesarewitch is 1.10,,the draw as follows

low = 1.28
middle = 1.06
high = 0.97

st michel will need those lbs in hand to overcome it imo..not for me at the crazy price it is

i've slung a tenner on each of these based on trainers/draw record in the race

Alan King 1.35 GRUMETI 65/1
Alan King 1.35 FIRST MOHICAN70/1
AJ Martin 1.49 GOLDEN SPEAR 85/1
D Simcock 1.22 THE CASHEL MAN 40/1

any of those to win will be very nice
 
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A Fabre obviously thinks enough of Double Lady (2.05) to send her for a recce of the Rowley Mile, and the hint should be taken against what appears a modest bunch otherwise.
Richard Pankhurst (2.40) blew in off a strong pace at Newbury, and appeared thwarted by the lack of similar at Donny. Looks a solid win and place bet @ Hiill's 15/2.
 
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The 3yo handicap at 3:45 tomorrow looks such a hard race to work out, but I've given Saunter for in form Jim Crowley the verdict.
 
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Anybody thinking St Michel is a handicap snip needs to consider Sweet Selection was 5.5L behind him at Donny, giving him 11 lb. On Saturday he gives him 2.

The way St Michel travelled impressed but there shouldn't be much between them and one is double the price of the other.
 
wilsonl said:
Anybody thinking St Michel is a handicap snip needs to consider Sweet Selection was 5.5L behind him at Donny, giving him 11 lb. On Saturday he gives him 2.

The way St Michel travelled impressed but there shouldn't be much between them and one is double the price of the other.
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i think the draw will do for both tbh...the trainer with the best IV in the race is Mullins (1.98)..but his renneti is drawn 30..so i left it out of my bets
 
Never Can Tell came from 36 in 2011 and Quick Jack came from 30 last year to place.

I got 16s on St Michel after his win at Goodwood the start before last and I have no fucks to give about the draw. He'll win if he's good enough.
 
Agree it'll make life difficult and I possibly won't back either but the price differential is wrong. Sweet Selection's price is about right but the jolly is too short.
 
Grey said:
34 runners, now there's a race for trends analysis. How do we reduce the field to a manageable shortlist?

Off the top of my head, I'd want horses with no more than 6 runs so far this season; a win over at least 2m, hurdles included; at least one win this season. I would also give extra attention to horses from NH stables and less attention to younger horses.

Does that list have any validity? And what else should we take into account? I've heard some say the draw is a big factor. Given the number of runners it probably is.
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Only one trend matters for me: the winner will be very well handicapped.

Finding it is the problem :)

(Just starting my own figures for the race now.)
 
Euronymous said:
Never Can Tell came from 36 in 2011 and Quick Jack came from 30 last year to place.
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which is irrelevant really..the figures don't say its impossible to run well from that draw..thats not the point of them..they tell you that horses do not beat the number of opponents they should do...its not a hard and fast rule..its a % play

i'd really expect people to understand that rather than..oooh fook draw...mine will win if its good enough..or some other old chestnut drawn from archives.

i'm not seeing the concept is that hard to understand tbh..its a guide to aid folk..its not there for any other reason..best be grateful someone can be arsed to try and help on here..there are enough takers who never post anything to help..i'd be cherishing the givers mesen:)

i hope it wins for you Euro
 
The Newmarket cards are excellent both tomorrow and Saturday.

Mark Johnston is a difficult trainer to read and he runs two similar types on Friday. Both Yalta and Lumiere have form and times in the book which would give them first-class chances in their respective races but both are inconsistent to say the least and neither showed anything like their best form last time out.

Yalta is 8/1 this evening and Lumiere 11/1. I wouldn't take a short price about either but I don't regard those as short prices and I'm having a crack at both.

I've ante-post bets for next year's classics on Sobetsu, Rhodedendron and Easy Victory, all of whom run in the Fillies' Mile. Of the three I like Sobetsu best and by some way and I've backed her at 5/2. It should be highly informative.
 
I'm not asking you to do the research myself, EC1, but my comment above allied to your other research had me thinking:

Is there a way of researching the IV of horses with xlbs in hand either on ORs, RPRs, Timeform, etc?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not asking you to do the research myself, EC1, but my comment above allied to your other research had me thinking:

Is there a way of researching the IV of horses with xlbs in hand either on ORs, RPRs, Timeform, etc?
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your best bet would be Timeform DO..unless any helpful person on here has Raceform interactive or Timeform..they should be able to point you in right direction
 
If St Michel was still available at 14s/16s, then I think you'd be less inclined to be worried about the draw, but at 6/1, you can see why folks are prepared to take him on. Draw advantage can be displayed different ways, one way is in average distance beaten which can obviously be then converted into lbs. As Euro says, although the draw isn't ideal, there are other factors like the WFA and the fact he's well ahead of his mark that are in his favour. Personally I don't think the draw is a disaster. Think he wants covering up as long as possible and I'd rather Morris go the brave route, try and pick his way through and meet trouble than have him seeing too much daylight out wide.

I like it when there is the opportunity to play up a particular formline across 2 horses, so in the Rockfel and Fillies Mile I'm taking the 2 from the May Hill in singles and an EW double. Think 7f suits Grecian Light better than a mile and hopefully she can step up on her Irish effort away from soft ground. Can see the appeal of the unexposed ones in the Fillies Mile, but I thought Rich Legacy showed real battling qualities at Doncaster. Her form is at least as good as most and I see no reason she won't give her running, the Beckett stable is fast becoming one of my favourites.
 
For those of you 'into' such issues, St Michel is 15lbs well in on Saturday.

Sweet Selection is 17lbs well in.
 
edgt said:
David Pipe expects to win Cesarewitch i have been informed for what it is worth.
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Ryan Moore booked. Ran the race of his life when stepped up in trip latest, and usually held up - so his 29 draw wouldn't be a massive inconvenience.
There'd be worse bets in what's basically a cavalry charge.
 
Close seconds to Dabyah and Rhodedendron on her first two runs read very well in the light of recent events and make Amabilis of serious interest in the 7f nursery off a mark of 85. The debut run was backed up by a good time. She ran just OK against colts in Listed company at Newbury on her third run and could only dead heat at 4/9 at Beverley last time out but the joint winner had shown reasonable form beforehand and they were five lengths clear of the third. She showed a good attitude there as well.

I think Blue Point has decent prospects of staying 7f today and 7/1 looks a big price to me in the Dewhurst. The general view seems to be that he's all speed but he was very strong at the finish in the Gimcrack. It's at least plausible that last time out he couldn't quite muster the pace to get past The Last Lion after that horse had been allowed an easy lead and then quickened it from the front. Churchill beat a blatant non-stayer last time but briefly looked in trouble when that horse took it up and I just wonder if 7f on fast ground might be on the sharp side for a colt that was winning over the trip back in June.
 
Havana Beat is the one in the Ceserewitch. The horse hinted at having some ability when winning a listed race 2 years ago. Went off the boil since then, trying to find his feet in group races. Just recently he ran better, now in the big handicap off a sweet mark. I'm sure running in those group races has made him tough and he'll need to be today. He's one of the best backed horses in the race according to Oddschecker this morning which might be significant. Further market support would certainly increase my confidence levels.
 
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reet hard said:
Ryan Moore booked. Ran the race of his life when stepped up in trip latest, and usually held up - so his 29 draw wouldn't be a massive inconvenience.
There'd be worse bets in what's basically a cavalry charge.
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He might have meant Starchitect :whistle:
 
By the way, Pythagoras would tell you that if the horse runs in a straight line from the outside draw to the inside rail at the bend, he's only forfeiting about a foot in distance so presumably it's the turn that makes all the difference...
 
Well done on getting 10-1., Maurice. Sweet Selection was so well-in, I don't know where my heads been. I didn't have much time to look at the race, anyway clicked on his form on the RP site and saw 104, thought the handicapper had him. Then saw he ran off 80 something! Excuses excuses I know...At least a very well handicapped horse won, its nice to see.
 
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