The Champion Bumper

Of course the winner could be still in a paddock, without a name, and very few people know it exists. My money will be on one in particular who fills that criteria at the present time.
 
Have they changed the rules in recent years do you know Galileo? I've looked into horses in sales catalogues whose dams may have won a bumper but sometimes did so at about the eighth attempt!
 
Right then having crunched through 248 bloody horses, we have some lists. Surprisingly, it was quite easy to eliminate about 80%, and further 15% on top of that who fall into a category of being in 'the last chance saloon', but who might yet join the 'short-list' if they can win NTO.

Basically, the first filter takes out those who've run over hurdles, on the flat, had to many runs, or will be to old by March 2010. That's quite an easy one to apply and is quite definitive.

The next filter looks more closely at performance. It was a feature of the 9 most recent winners that all of them came first on second on their NHF debut apart from Missed That who came 13th and Total Enjoyment who came third (albeit it the much more competitive Punchestown Festival Bumper). Interestingly though, all of them won on their second start. This is moderately revealing, as it suggests that to be up to winning the Cheltenham Bumper a horse needs to be advertising their credentials by their second race at the latest. It's perhaps not to surprising as a horse who finsihed 3rd or 4th on debut has probably run close to form, and that's as good as they are etc. A horse that's run 13th though, might have a legitimate excuse for such a poor performance and it's easier to strike a line through that one run which can be forgiven provided they put it right with a win NTO.

In all but one case, a horse which hasn't run into the first two on their NHF debut appears on a list as being 'unlikely but just about possible'. Even if they do win NTO though, they're still clinging on by their fingernails, and still wouldn't be regarded as strict qualifiers or conforming to the atypical identikit profile of a prospective winner elect. Similarly, those that achieved a midfield position on debut (outside of the first 4), but followed up with a win are put into the same list for the time being.

Taking out horses that were zero from two or more races proved to be the single biggest elimination tool.

I've also included horses who won on debut but failed to register a second win NTO, (placing instead) on 'the last chance saloon' list ( a slightly better list to be on than the unlikely one), as I'm reasonably persuaded by the fact that we have a 100% correlation with the stat that suggests progressive types win their second race where as a decent run on debut that didn't result in a win can be forgiven.

I've also taken a negative view against fillies and mares and horses who've come through points. Again, Missed That (one p2p) and Total Enjoyment (mare) defied this negative indicator, but you still couldn't consider it a positive.

Finally horses who came second on their debut which isn't unheard of (Hairy Molly, Dunguib and Liberman) did this appear, on the same 'last chance' list, as they simply have to win NTO to move on to the short-list proper. There would be a reasonable expectation that about 50% will.

Even the short list proper (which is only 14 strong) will have a few fall off who fail NTO and have qualified so far by simply winning a bumper. There would be an expectation that horses could move between these two lists, whilst others will be falling off both all the time in line with injuries and changes in plans etc


So the 'unlikely list' is

Arkose
Baracas
Blazing Tempo (mare)
Brightside oflife
Cast In Stone
Corskeagh Shadow (mare)
Dare to Doubt (mare)
Dumitas
Five out of Five
Flash Scan
Ikidunot
Itdosnotbotherme
Kealigolane
King of the Night
Lend A Hand Son
Leney Lou (mare)
Lis Na Tintri (mare)
Lucy Stone (mare)
Milanette (mare)
Milbig Lass (mare)
Rossdara (mare)
Sheer Genius
Traffic Article
The Chazer
Walter Wallace
Wang
Woodmore

In the last chance saloon, (must win NTO - which strictly speakign they all have to anyway, it's just that some might be forgiven)

Ad Idem
Anshan Dreams
Boxer Joe
Frawley
Got Options
Happy New Year
Lean Times
Mighty Snazy
Old Charm
Quel Esprit (surely this one goes hurdling?)
Revelling (filly)
Sparkling Tara (struggled to allocate a list for this one put it here)
The Shepherd
Vardas Partner
Ucan Bolt

Finally the short-list

Baile Ui Cholmain
Bold Buccaneer
Buck Barrow
Dear Sam
Diamonds Return
Enterprise Park
Falcon Island
Imperial Cascade (I've cut this one a bit of leeway due to close proximity third on debut)
Loosen My Load
Midtown Boy
Quantitativeeasing
Regal Athlete
Sweeps Hill (got a note that says hurdling?)
Tri Na Gcapall (filly)


There will be a degree of movement between the Gold and Silver lists and the odd one from the bronze list could force their way into the gold list, but even if they did, they're already sufficiently far enough behind the ball for you to be worried that they aren't really in the shake up.

If you reduce it to game of stats, then there's probably something like a 40% - 50% chance that the winners name is on the gold or silver list (more likely the gold one) as doubtless some of these will fall off (about 50% will be qualifiers based purely on the snap shot in time that the list was generated and prove to be temporary phonies). Other horses could emerge with wins NTO to replace them though, and they're most likelt to come from the silver list, where they at least have a second place on their debut to reinforce their new claim to be considered. Even if horses from the bronze list could work their way into contention by virtue of winning NTO, they still possess sufficient negative to be worried about making them a selection, even if they would be technical qualifiers on the mid March to end of July filter


:cool:
 
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