The Ebor
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
My least favourite as it happens. It's over such a weird distance I've never been able to get a handle on it.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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I think the weights are released Wednesday 21st July.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I thought the weights were already out a while ago.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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Entries are out, weights aren't.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Cheers, dj. Kinda fecks up something I wrote recently!
I'd checked the card and noticed the ORs and presumed they were the current ORs. Presumably they were the ORs at the time of entry and will change before the publication of the weights.
Like Gal, though, this is another of my favourite races and I find it pretty easy to narrow the field down to a small number.
I'd checked the card and noticed the ORs and presumed they were the current ORs. Presumably they were the ORs at the time of entry and will change before the publication of the weights.
Like Gal, though, this is another of my favourite races and I find it pretty easy to narrow the field down to a small number.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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It's a fantastic race, and I like having a cut at these big handicaps ante-post these days as it's quite easy to work out what will or won't get it, and from that you can quickly identify only 3 or 4 improvers.
swedish chef
At the Start
I love the Ebor meeting - I picked this up off another site a couple of years ago and to be honest I found it long winded and somewhat complicated. Although surprisingly worked very well in the two-year-old races if you concentrated on colts and fillies and ignored geldings (don't ask me why) I'd be very interested in some of your thoughts on here as personally I found it cumbersome.
As you may be aware I am nuts about stats, and thus far this year (2008), it has stood me in good stead, providing profits at most of the main meetings throughout the year. Most Notably, Cheltenham, Aintree and the Dante meeting. Chester was a bit of a spanner in the works, whilst Goodwood was not spectacular, and Brighton the following week, hung on to profits gained on the first day to prove profitable over the three days.
Well I have now run through the EBOR meeting figures, and am looking at some specific angles, in respects of Trainers, Sp's, Ratings, LTO performances, and personal efficiency scores. I will put a note out now that the jockey figures drew a complete blank as far as outstanding strike rates, LSP returns or any other factor to note, so I shall be ignoring the little blighters this time round.
I have run the full figures through, picked out some pointers and run again with a couple of filters thrown in to produce a sensible number of selections, and what we would hope will throw up a nice strike rate and more importantly PROFIT over the course of the meeting.
Look out for LUCA! Study Stoutes strike rate! Which price ranges provide the best SR's and profits, and what is the going going to do for the performances of our fancied runners. Also included are trainers who you will want to avoid, the big names with only a single winner in 7 years from 30+ runners. The ones from who you get no value, and don’t let the Jane Chapple Hyam 100/1 winner skew your figures when looking at the stats yourself.
I will add further posts in this section entitled "York EBOR Meeting", this evening and in the coming days whilst posting up daily selections the night before racing.
Be sure to check back on the blog for the latest information, stats and form views.
Well firstly let me thank you for having a look at this blog in advance, or maybe even during the meeting.
I have run through each of the races that have taken place at this meeting since 2002, to see if we can find any trends or pointers for this year’s event.
I have found some trends that may be worth some closer attention and some statistics which hopefully will steer us away from losers too. Including the top trainer who has managed just a single victory from 30+ runs at this meeting since 2002.
Here come the facts and figures then.
Just before I start I will point out that some of the returns you will see, include a 100/1 shocker from Jane Chapple-Hyams yard, so please take this into account when looking at some of the Level Stakes Profits figures.
First of all, these figures come from a review of 140 races and 1680 runners.
Ready
I will start with Trainers for no other reason than....well there is no other reason.
First of all, by LSP
Best first
Trainer: M H Tompki 3-29 (10%) +£42.50 ROI (146%)
Trainer: J G Given 3-21 14% +£21.50 ROI (102%)
Trainer: D Nicholls 5-39 (12%) +£19.87 ROI (50%)
Trainer: J L Dunlop 4-21 (19%) +£15.00 (71%)
Trainer: L M Cumani 7-26 (26%) +£11.50 ROI (44%)
Now the worst
There are some surprising names in amongst these
Trainer: M Johnston 6-77 (7%) -£56.14 (-73%)
Trainer: R Hannon 0-41 (0%) -£41.00(-100%)
Trainer: B W Hills 6-63 (9%) -£29.50 (-47%)
Trainer: M A Jarvis 1-31 (3%) -£27.50 (-89%)
Trainer: A P O’Brien 5-41 (12%) -£26.43 (-65%)
Trainer: M W Easter 0-26 (0%) -£26.00 (-100%)
Trainer: K A Ryan 2-48 (4%) -£23.00 (-48%)
Trainer: K R Burke 0-20 (0%) -£20.00 (-100%)
Trainer: M R Channo 3-43 (6%) -£19.61 (-46%)
I am sure you will agree, that the appearance of the likes of APO and Mark Johnson in there is a surprise, but to also find that Richard Hannon has not had a single winner and that Michael Jarvis has mustered just a single victory in 6 years at this meeting is quite astounding.
Certainly there are some strong pointers here for which trainers to avoid.
Let’s try by strike rate now. I shant bother with the worst this time as it pretty much reflects what we have already seen..
Trainer: L M Cumani 7-26 (26%) +£11.50
Trainer: W J Haggas 4-21 (19%) -£1.50
Trainer: J L Dunlop 4-21 (19%) +£15.00
Trainer: Sir Michael 13-74 (17%) -£5.00
A slightly different picture this time around, there are others of course with 100% and 50% records with 1 winner from 1 runner or 1 from 2 but I see no value in adding then to this list.
Interesting to see that Sir Michael Stoute has managed to maintain a 17% Strike Rate with many more runners, but still shows an overall lost to level stakes, as does Haggas albeit small. John Dunlop’s 4 from 21 is ok, but may not guarantee us a winner over the course of this years meeting, as we are looking at 4 winners in 6 years.
I do like the fact that Luca Cumani has caught the eye in two tables for the trainers, and I will be keeping a look out for his runners, particularly handicappers as he does have the ability to get one ready for a big race.
STARTING PRICES
I am going to move onto Sp's now, as it is always interesting to see where the majority of winners come from in the final market.
SP: 1/2- 3-3 (100%) +£1.32
SP: 1/2=><1/1 5-8 (62%) +£0.86
SP: 1/1=><2/1 12-37 (32%) -£6.59
SP: 2/1=><5/1 48-197 (24%) +£8.50
SP: 5/1=><10/1 36-368 (9%) -£102.00
SP: 10/1=><20/1 22-439 (5%) -£142.00
SP: 20/1=><50/1 13-514 (2%) -£80.00
SP: 50/1=><100/1 3-181 (1%) +£22.00
SP: 100/1+ 1-55 (1%) +£46.00
SP: FAV 45-150 (30%) +£5.75
SP: RAG 4-180 (2%) -£3.00
Well if you had been patient enough to concentrate on simply the odds on shots in isolation over the last 6 years you would be rather chuffed with yourself, having landed 8 of 11 bets, and you would have been sitting pretty atop a level stakes profit of £2.18 to a £1 stake...
No, not enough action or profit for me either...
The strike rate for runners going off between evens and 15/8 is no where near high enough to return a profit over the tested period, and in turn, immediately look like bad value bets. Even when you look at the total of 12 winners in 6 years, you would want a bit more winning action than that per year averaging out at 2 winners, not enough to guarantee a winner a day at short odds!
2/1-9/2 gives us a nice regular strike rate and can even muster a level stakes profit over betting every qualifier, so this may be an area to look a little closer at later on.
Even more interesting is spotting the fact that had we bet on every favourite in every race since 2002 we would have been in pocket again. This time by £8.50 for every £1 wagered.
It may be worth a look at favs that fall in this price bracket, but certainly not if they fall in the lower one.
you will notice that the winner I was talking about earlier from the 100/1+bracket gives us an overall profit, and they stats never lie and they don’t here, but its not an angle I’ll be looking at following, despite a big LSP profit in excess of anything else that size in this section. The 50/1-100/1 section likewise, shows us that with three winners, we can expect to find one from this nice big drop zone bi-annually and although in profit over the period, my heart would not stand me waiting on a system with a 1% strike rate. There is nothing to shock in these results and the percentages, with the exception of the evens to 15/8 section, return what you would normally expect.
FITNESS
Lets look at the results when taking into account DAYS SINCE LAST RUN.
DSR: 001 to 010 days 15-212 (7%) -38.25
DSR: 011 to 020 days 32-545 (5%) -274.26
DSR: 021 to 040 days 64-544 (11%) +189.7
DSR: 041 to 060 days 17-177 (9%) -87.72
DSR: 061 to 100 days 10-103 (9%) -49.91
DSR: 101 to 200 days 0-25 (0%) -25.00
DSR: 201 to 300 days 0-2 (0%) -2.00
DSR: 301 days + 0-15 (0%) -15.00
Certainly there is a big bias for runners coming here and competing after a break of between 21 and 40 days. It is without doubt that this area is where Jane Chapple-Hyams 100/1 winner has come from, but even taking that one out of the equation we still have a seriously good level stakes profit return of 89.7points. Interesting that if your cut off point for freshness comes at 100+ days, it would seem that nothing comes to the Ebor meeting and wins fresh, with a 0-42 record to prove it. It also doesn’t look to be the very best results to be reappearing here too quickly after the last run, with results for those coming back within 20 days managing just 47 wins from 757 runs and a massive level stakes loss of -£300+ to £1 stakes. A quick way to the poor house.
I will almost certainly run this filter through again to see what we come up with.
In fact, that is such a strong figure even taking the 100/1 winner out that I am going to run it now. I will also filter out those runners returning after 100+ days. This will bring down the bets to a more reasonable level.
POINTS TO TAKE FROM THESE OVERALL FIGURES:
I think it could be worth keeping an eye on both Luca Cumani and John Dunlop, whilst Michael Stoute will almost certainly find one of his entries in the winner’s enclosure.
Make note of the 'big names' to avoid from the training ranks.
Look for runners making reappearance after 21-40 days, but not those having first run for over 100 days.
As far as the Sp's are concerned, the jury is out, as we don’t want to filter out the possibility of a nice double figure odds winner. We can have another look at this later.
Well, I have run this filter through and once again, we have some nice angles to look at, and a selection of possible bets, which fall into realistic numbers without having to Dutch several runners per race. One quick note, these results include 53 races with 474 runners. ALSO TO NOTE: these results are from 2003 onwards instead of 2002 as the first run. The singular reason is that I clicked the wrong button when getting the software running. SORRY!
If you had bet every runner that was returning to the track within 21-40 days since its last run you would ended up with these figures
53-474 (11%) +155.30 ROI (32%)
Remember this still includes a 100/1 winner!! which I am trying to disregard, you may like to do the same.
TRAINERS
I'll start with the trainers again, albeit briefly this time
This time with the filter applied I am looking for those trainers with the highest number of winners.
Trainer: L M Cumani 3-7 (42%) +£8.50 ROI (121%)
Trainer: J L Dunlop 3-9 (33%) +£14.00 ROI (155%)
Trainer: M Johnston 3-14 (21%) -£1.25 ROI (-8.93%)
Trainer: Sir Michae 3-19 (15%) +£0.75 (3.94%)
So interesting to see that even though we have applied the filter, both luck Cumani, and john Dunlop still appear in our lists. This is a fairly strong looking angle now, so I shall be keeping a look-out for both these stables runners, especially if coming off a break of between 21 and 40 days.
Mark johnsons figures improve dramatically with this, and Michael Stoute is still there although his strike rate is still poor in comparison, and still shows an overall level stakes loss.
STARTING PRICES
Sorted by Strike rates...
SP: 1/2- 1-1 (100%) +£0.44
SP: 2/1=><5/1 18-65 (27%) +£10.75
SP: FAV 11-44 (25%) -£3.95
SP: 1/1=><2/1 3-15 (20%) -£6.88
SP: 5/1=><10/1 15-119 (12%) -£4.00
SP: 100/1+ 1-12 (8%) +£89.00
SP: 10/1=><20/1 10-126 (7%) +£11.00
SP: 50/1=><100/1 3-46 (6%) +£157.00
SP: 20/1=><50/1 5-119(4%) +£72.00
Well you would certainly expect to see this list run from the shortest price down to the longer shots, which it does do to an extent, but when you spot things out of line, it is worth taking note.
Significantly, even though with the filter we have seen improvements in overall figures, the same evens to 15/8 price bracket that was so unsuccessful overall, has in fact got worse with the filter, with just three winners from 15 runners. The place to be once again is the 2/1-9/2 mark, with a good enough strike rate to produce profits, this time the strike rate for favourites is not so good at 25%, neither has it produced a profitable line in the results.
ONE MORE THING
The next factor will not mean a great deal to you, unless you use the DATAFORM software that I also use, but I have just found a filter on there which has produced the following results over the period.
Eff: DIS Best 15-53 (28%) +£134.55 ROI (253%) Average Sp = 11.5/1
This is effectively according to the software analysis, the best runner in the race over the distance of the race they are competing in. The LSP figure of +134.55 is massive. I am not sure if it includes the 100/1 shot or not, but if not then we have found where those other big priced winners have fallen in.
Finally, one thing that does concern me is that the systems it wools stand now, has not been consistent over the years.
Year: 2003 12-81 (14%) +99.61
Year: 2004 7-91 (7%) -33.50
Year: 2005 18-140 (12%) +59.50
Year: 2006 5-75 (6%) +49.94
Year: 2007 11-87 (12%) -20.25
My fear would be. "Are we going to have a 2005/2006 year, or do we get a repeat of 2007 or 2003. The swings in the figures are quite unusual, and quite unnerving from a potential investment point of view.
We may need to find something a bit more regular
I will run this filter through to see what we find.
Apart from that we are looking at runners returning to the track within 21-40 days, priced between 2/1 and 9/2. Particular attention, if these first two criteria are met, and then we find they are trained by Luca Cumani or John Dunlop.
Let’s run the Distance filter
This is it then, the final set of analysis from a few days work to find the most likely winners for the upcoming few days at York, encompassing the Tote Ebor.
We have run the figures through the software, right from looking at every runner and winner of every race, in the search of some trends and angles to give us an edge for 2008.
Jane Chapple-Hyams 100/1 Ebor shock winner MUDAWIN threw itself into the mix, to make some angles look somewhat better than they were, and in fact, it created a few problems in popping into major losing figures and making them look overall profitable since 2002. We have filtered that out and come up with nice criteria for qualifying.
The selections won’t be many, in fact they will be few, but if they can replicate results from 5 of the last 6 years, we should be laughing into our champagne come the end of day three.
Year: 2003 3-5 (60%) +£11.87 ROI +237% Av Sp 5.62
Year: 2004 3-6 (50%) +£7.50 ROI +125% Av Sp 4.5
Year: 2005 4-7 (57%) +£27.50 ROI +392% Av Sp 8.62
Year: 2006 1-6 (16%) -£4.57 ROI -77% Av Sp 1.44
Year: 2007 3-5 (60%) +£15.25 ROI +305% Av Sp 6.75
Just thought I would add the place figures to this too for further evidence of what a good system this could be.
Year: 2003 3-5 (60%)
Year: 2004 5-6 (83%)
Year: 2005 5-7 (71%)
Year: 2006 2-6 (33%)
Year: 2007 5-5 (100%)
These returning LSP's may not look huge, but remember, these figures are for just three days racing each year. Can you imagine ever having to work again if you could turn over this type of profit every three days throughout the year?
Think of it this way, here are the figures for the entire tested period from 2002 to 2007.
ALL 14-29 (48%) +£57.55 ROI +198% AvSp 6.18
If you take note of the ROI figure, this is the average over the period, as is the Average starting price. Can you just picture not only doubling your money, but trebling it every three days. That’s pretty much what this system is doing each year.
EXCITING ISNT IT?
What About the GOING?
Hopefully you will agree that these are quite an exciting set of results from the past 5 years. The exception of course being 2006 when the system could only muster a single winner in the form of ALEXANDROVA at odds on from 6 qualifiers. I had to question why this was such a poor performing year. Here are the runners from 2006
22/08/2006 PUTRA SQUARE(GB) 4th 7/1 GS
22/08/2006 SOAPY DANGER(GB) 5th 4/1 GS
23/08/2006 FUTUN(GB) 7th 4/1 GS
23/08/2006 ALEXANDROVA(IRE) 1st 1.44 GS
24/08/2006 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE(GB) 6th 12/1 S
24/08/2006 COCKNEY REBEL(IRE) 2nd 6/1 S
It may a consequence of the going being good to soft on the 22nd and 23rd, and deteriorating to Soft on the final day 24th. Other than these races, the only other time that soft had appeared in the official going was on 18th in 2004
18/08/2004 GALEOTA(IRE) 5th 20/1 GS
18/08/2004 MEPHISTO(IRE) 1st 6/1 GS
18/08/2004 RAJWA(USA) 2nd 6/4 GS
19/08/2004 SOAR(GB) 1st 2/1 S
As we scored winners on both goings including on soft from a single qualifier on the 19th, I can’t attribute the going as the deciding factor. The reason for the slump in 2006 remains a mystery.
To look at the performance of the system from the going point of view here is the list.
Going: G 7-13 (53%) +£41.75 ROI +321% AvSp 7.82/1
Going: GF 4-6 (66%) +£14.37 ROI +239% AvSp 5.09/1
Going: GS 2-7 (28%) +£1.44 ROI +20% AvSp 4.22/1
Going: S 1-3 (33%) £0.00 ROI 0% AvSp 3/1
It would seem apparent that the system is more reliable on faster ground, which does raise a concern over how the weather will treat us this week. But what is also interesting is the Average Sp's of the winners. Time and time again when I have run this type of test, the slower the ground the higher the Average Sp's have tended to be, another mystery is quite why this is the total opposite.
Starting Prices
Moving on to the starting prices then, here is a breakdown for all the qualifiers over the past 5 meetings.
SP: FAV 4-10 (40%) +£0.81 ROI +8.14% AvSp 2.7/1
So there are the favourites, a 40% SR is reasonable, but as the average Sp has been just under 3/1, it has only scraped a small LSP.
The full price ranges
SP: 1/2- 1-1 (100%) +£0.44 ROI +44% AvSp 1.44
SP: 1/1=><2/1 1-2 (50%) +£0.87 ROI +43% AvSp 2.87
SP: 2/1=><5/1 6-12 (50%) +£9.25 ROI 77% AvSp 3.54
SP: 5/1=><10/1 4-8 (50%) +£27.00 ROI 337% AvSp 8.75
SP: 10/1=><20/1 2-5 (40%) +£21.00 ROI 420% AvSP 13
SP: 20/1=><50/1 0-1 (0%) -£1.00 ROI -100%
It is pleasing to see that the strike rates for all qualifiers remain at the same 50% for all selections through EVENS to 10/1. Also looking at the Averages within these groups, they fall pretty much right in the middle, so we haven’t been mislead by 6 2/1 winners in the 2/1-5/1 group. Things are pretty even. normally you would expect the strike rates to fall as you move up the bigger prices, but a 50% strike rate for selections falling between 5/1 & 10/1 is fantastic, If only I could find a system that could produce that every week of the year!!!. Even better, one that could give me a 40% strike rate with selections returning 10-/-20/1!!!!!!!!!! I can almost taste retirement.
Race Distances
It may not mean much in the great scheme of things, but nevertheless worth publishing, The performances in differing distanced races.
Dist: 05f 2-3 (66%) +£18.00 ROI +600% AvSp 10.5
Dist: 06f 4-8 (50%) +£22.00 ROI +275% AvSp 7.5
Dist: 07f 4-6 (66%) +£7.62 ROI +127% AvSp 3.4
Dist: 08f 0-2 (0%) -£2.00 ROI -100%
Dist: 09f to 10f 0-2 (0%) -£2.00 ROI -100%
Dist: 11f to 12f 2-4 (50%) +£0.94 ROI +23% AvSp 2.47
Dist: 13f to 14f 2-4 (50%) +£13.00 ROI +325% AvSp 8.5
There certainly seems to be a preference for qualifying the sprinters in this system, with the 5 and 6f races along with the specialist distance of 7f complimenting by making up another 66% of the winners from the second largest sample from a distance. Then there is a gaping hole for 8 and 9f races were qualifiers have drawn a blank from four selections. In fact I can elaborate on that and explain that only one placed from those four runners. That was DOCOFTHEBAY from last year. Does this mean that we should eliminate qualifiers should they be in races of this length? I would suggest not. A hit in either distance in the next race makes a 33% strike rate 1-3, which we would be happy with, so not just yet.
What I also found out with the distance filter when I run it was that it did not produce a single winner who failed to finish either first or second on the prior visit to a race course. This to me is pretty significant.
Placed1stLTO: 9-20 (45%) +£23.55 ROI +117% AvSp 4.84
Placed2nd LTO: 5-9 (55%) +£34.00 ROI +377% AvSp 8.6
CLASS OF RACE
Here is the table to show how the qualifiers performed based on prize monies.
Prize: 07K=><10K 2-2 (100%) +£14.50 ROI +725% AvSp 8.25
Prize: 10K=><20K 2-7 (28%) +£6.50 ROI +92% AvSp 6.75
Prize: 20K=><50K 5-8 (62%) +£16.11 ROI +201% AvSP 4.82
Prize: 50K=> 5-12 (41%) +£20.43 ROI +170% AvSP 6.48
It seems that the system will throw out qualifiers from all ranges of race, right up to Group 1 Class. In fact with closer inspection, we find that the netter the class of race, the better the system seems to be at finding us a winner.
I've included the old classification here from when the classification moved from ALPHA to NUMERIC in 2005. Nevertheless, the strike rates are very impressive in these competitive races.
I keep saying things are interesting, but the most interesting thing here is the system seems able to find an upset too. Obviously the hardest fought races will be the group 1 events, and generally as s rule of thumb the favourites do very well in them. But if you notice the average starting prices of the system winners for group 1s from these results since 2002, 13/2 would suggest we can find the upset 75% of the time. UNBELIEVABLE!!
Class 1 5-8 (62%) +£21.69 ROI +271% AvSp5.93
Class A 4-8 (50%) +£5.37 (67%) AvSP 3.34
Class Gr1 3-4 (75%) +£18.44 ROI +461% AvSp 7.48
Class Gr2 2-5 (40%) +£2.00 ROI +40% AvSp 3.5
Class Gr3 1-2 (50%) +£1.75 ROI +87% AvSP 3.75
FITNESS
Well, we already know that these qualifiers have run between 21 to 40 days previous to appearing at the EBOR festival, but what about previous to that run. Well once again, I have found an amazing little trend. Without exception, each of the qualifiers including all the winners of course had their 2nd to last run between 41 and 100 days before today’s run.
None shorter, none longer all between 41 and 100 days!!!
I have split this into two groups.
DSR2: 041 to 060 days 4-12 (33%) +£26.00 ROI +216% AvSp 9.5
DSR2: 061 to 100 days 5-7 (71%) +£16.80 ROI +240% AvSP 4.76
____________________
It would seem the system has no preference for either handicap or Stakes races either.
Type: Handicaps 3-9 (33%) +£21.00 ROI +233% AvSP 10
Type: Stakes 11-20 (55%) +£36.54 ROI +182% AvSP 5.14
Handicap winners have produced some nice exciting winners, but the system certainly gets more involved with the stakes races. Another quick titbit worth a mention is a 100% record in Fillies races.
SpecType: Fillies 4-4 (100%) +£7.94 ROI +198% AvSp 2.98
SpecType: Maiden 2-3 (66%) +£10.50 ROI +350% AvSp 6.75
It’s also been fairly handy at finding a maiden winner too!.
The final thing I will leave you with is a list of qualifiers and results from the tested period.
Date Qualifier Placed Going Trainer Jockey
19/08/2003-MINGUN(USA) 4th GF A P O'Brie M J Kinane
19/08/2003 YAWMI(GB) 8th GF B W Hills R Hills
19/08/2003 RULE OF LAW(USA) 1st GF D R Loder J P Spence
21/08/2003 JAGGER(GB) 1st GF G A Butler E Ahern
21/08/2003 CARRY ON KATIE(USA)1st GF J Noseda L Dettori
17/08/2004 ELLIOTS WORLD(IRE) 1st G M Johnston J Fanning
17/08/2004 OUDE(USA) 2nd G Saeed Bin L Dettori
18/08/2004 GALEOTA(IRE) 5th GS R Hannon R Hughes
18/08/2004 MEPHISTO(IRE)1st GS L M Cumani D Holland
18/08/2004 RAJWA(USA) 2nd GS Saeed Bin L Dettori
19/08/2004 SOAR(GB) 1st S J R Fansha J P Murtag
16/08/2005 FIRENZE(GB) 6th G J R Fansha J P Spence
17/08/2005 JOHANNES(IRE)1st G D Nicholls A Nicholls
17/08/2005 BALKAN KNIGHT(GB) 4th G D R C Elsw J F Egan
17/08/2005 COLORUS(IRE) 4th G R A Fahey K Fallon
18/08/2005 LA CUCARACHA(GB) 1st G B W Hills M Hills
27/08/2005 SIR NOD(GB) 1st G Miss J Fei T Eaves
31/08/2005 CHARLIE COOL(GB) 1st GF W J Haggas K Fallon
22/08/2006 PUTRA SQUARE(GB) 4th GS P F I Cole E Ahern
22/08/2006 SOAPY DANGER(GB) 5th GS M Johnston K Darley
23/08/2006 FUTUN(GB) 7th GS L M Cumani N Mackay
23/08/2006 ALEXANDROVA(IRE) 1st GS APO'Brien MKinane
24/08/2006 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE(GB) 6th S W J Knight P Doe
24/08/2006 COCKNEY REBEL(IRE) 2nd S G A Huffer D O'Donoho
21/08/2007 FAST COMPANY(IRE) 1st G B J Meehan R L Moore
22/08/2007 SCRIPTWRITER(IRE) 3rd G Saeed Bin K McEvoy
23/08/2007 KINGSGATE NATIVE(IRE)1st G J R Best J Quinn
23/08/2007 DOCOFTHEBAY(IRE) 2nd G J A Osborn R L Moore
23/08/2007 WANNABE POSH(IRE) 1st G J L Dunlop E Ahern
If anyone would like the full spreadsheet of either the breakdown of results categories or the full qualifiers list with classifications too, then just let me know your e-mail address and I will forward the information. These spreadsheets may also give anyone who wants to start recording results, the type of spreadsheet template that would be idea, either as it is or modified.
Anyway, there we have it. After running the dataform system analyser a couple of times we would seem to have a fairly safe little system for this years meeting. Once again, a small warning for the weather, and lets hope we get a full compliment of around 6 or 7 qualifiers split equally over the three days to give us some good interest. better still lets keep out fingers crossed for some similar success to that already witnessed in previous years.
As you may be aware I am nuts about stats, and thus far this year (2008), it has stood me in good stead, providing profits at most of the main meetings throughout the year. Most Notably, Cheltenham, Aintree and the Dante meeting. Chester was a bit of a spanner in the works, whilst Goodwood was not spectacular, and Brighton the following week, hung on to profits gained on the first day to prove profitable over the three days.
Well I have now run through the EBOR meeting figures, and am looking at some specific angles, in respects of Trainers, Sp's, Ratings, LTO performances, and personal efficiency scores. I will put a note out now that the jockey figures drew a complete blank as far as outstanding strike rates, LSP returns or any other factor to note, so I shall be ignoring the little blighters this time round.
I have run the full figures through, picked out some pointers and run again with a couple of filters thrown in to produce a sensible number of selections, and what we would hope will throw up a nice strike rate and more importantly PROFIT over the course of the meeting.
Look out for LUCA! Study Stoutes strike rate! Which price ranges provide the best SR's and profits, and what is the going going to do for the performances of our fancied runners. Also included are trainers who you will want to avoid, the big names with only a single winner in 7 years from 30+ runners. The ones from who you get no value, and don’t let the Jane Chapple Hyam 100/1 winner skew your figures when looking at the stats yourself.
I will add further posts in this section entitled "York EBOR Meeting", this evening and in the coming days whilst posting up daily selections the night before racing.
Be sure to check back on the blog for the latest information, stats and form views.
Well firstly let me thank you for having a look at this blog in advance, or maybe even during the meeting.
I have run through each of the races that have taken place at this meeting since 2002, to see if we can find any trends or pointers for this year’s event.
I have found some trends that may be worth some closer attention and some statistics which hopefully will steer us away from losers too. Including the top trainer who has managed just a single victory from 30+ runs at this meeting since 2002.
Here come the facts and figures then.
Just before I start I will point out that some of the returns you will see, include a 100/1 shocker from Jane Chapple-Hyams yard, so please take this into account when looking at some of the Level Stakes Profits figures.
First of all, these figures come from a review of 140 races and 1680 runners.
Ready
I will start with Trainers for no other reason than....well there is no other reason.
First of all, by LSP
Best first
Trainer: M H Tompki 3-29 (10%) +£42.50 ROI (146%)
Trainer: J G Given 3-21 14% +£21.50 ROI (102%)
Trainer: D Nicholls 5-39 (12%) +£19.87 ROI (50%)
Trainer: J L Dunlop 4-21 (19%) +£15.00 (71%)
Trainer: L M Cumani 7-26 (26%) +£11.50 ROI (44%)
Now the worst
There are some surprising names in amongst these
Trainer: M Johnston 6-77 (7%) -£56.14 (-73%)
Trainer: R Hannon 0-41 (0%) -£41.00(-100%)
Trainer: B W Hills 6-63 (9%) -£29.50 (-47%)
Trainer: M A Jarvis 1-31 (3%) -£27.50 (-89%)
Trainer: A P O’Brien 5-41 (12%) -£26.43 (-65%)
Trainer: M W Easter 0-26 (0%) -£26.00 (-100%)
Trainer: K A Ryan 2-48 (4%) -£23.00 (-48%)
Trainer: K R Burke 0-20 (0%) -£20.00 (-100%)
Trainer: M R Channo 3-43 (6%) -£19.61 (-46%)
I am sure you will agree, that the appearance of the likes of APO and Mark Johnson in there is a surprise, but to also find that Richard Hannon has not had a single winner and that Michael Jarvis has mustered just a single victory in 6 years at this meeting is quite astounding.
Certainly there are some strong pointers here for which trainers to avoid.
Let’s try by strike rate now. I shant bother with the worst this time as it pretty much reflects what we have already seen..
Trainer: L M Cumani 7-26 (26%) +£11.50
Trainer: W J Haggas 4-21 (19%) -£1.50
Trainer: J L Dunlop 4-21 (19%) +£15.00
Trainer: Sir Michael 13-74 (17%) -£5.00
A slightly different picture this time around, there are others of course with 100% and 50% records with 1 winner from 1 runner or 1 from 2 but I see no value in adding then to this list.
Interesting to see that Sir Michael Stoute has managed to maintain a 17% Strike Rate with many more runners, but still shows an overall lost to level stakes, as does Haggas albeit small. John Dunlop’s 4 from 21 is ok, but may not guarantee us a winner over the course of this years meeting, as we are looking at 4 winners in 6 years.
I do like the fact that Luca Cumani has caught the eye in two tables for the trainers, and I will be keeping a look out for his runners, particularly handicappers as he does have the ability to get one ready for a big race.
STARTING PRICES
I am going to move onto Sp's now, as it is always interesting to see where the majority of winners come from in the final market.
SP: 1/2- 3-3 (100%) +£1.32
SP: 1/2=><1/1 5-8 (62%) +£0.86
SP: 1/1=><2/1 12-37 (32%) -£6.59
SP: 2/1=><5/1 48-197 (24%) +£8.50
SP: 5/1=><10/1 36-368 (9%) -£102.00
SP: 10/1=><20/1 22-439 (5%) -£142.00
SP: 20/1=><50/1 13-514 (2%) -£80.00
SP: 50/1=><100/1 3-181 (1%) +£22.00
SP: 100/1+ 1-55 (1%) +£46.00
SP: FAV 45-150 (30%) +£5.75
SP: RAG 4-180 (2%) -£3.00
Well if you had been patient enough to concentrate on simply the odds on shots in isolation over the last 6 years you would be rather chuffed with yourself, having landed 8 of 11 bets, and you would have been sitting pretty atop a level stakes profit of £2.18 to a £1 stake...
No, not enough action or profit for me either...
The strike rate for runners going off between evens and 15/8 is no where near high enough to return a profit over the tested period, and in turn, immediately look like bad value bets. Even when you look at the total of 12 winners in 6 years, you would want a bit more winning action than that per year averaging out at 2 winners, not enough to guarantee a winner a day at short odds!
2/1-9/2 gives us a nice regular strike rate and can even muster a level stakes profit over betting every qualifier, so this may be an area to look a little closer at later on.
Even more interesting is spotting the fact that had we bet on every favourite in every race since 2002 we would have been in pocket again. This time by £8.50 for every £1 wagered.
It may be worth a look at favs that fall in this price bracket, but certainly not if they fall in the lower one.
you will notice that the winner I was talking about earlier from the 100/1+bracket gives us an overall profit, and they stats never lie and they don’t here, but its not an angle I’ll be looking at following, despite a big LSP profit in excess of anything else that size in this section. The 50/1-100/1 section likewise, shows us that with three winners, we can expect to find one from this nice big drop zone bi-annually and although in profit over the period, my heart would not stand me waiting on a system with a 1% strike rate. There is nothing to shock in these results and the percentages, with the exception of the evens to 15/8 section, return what you would normally expect.
FITNESS
Lets look at the results when taking into account DAYS SINCE LAST RUN.
DSR: 001 to 010 days 15-212 (7%) -38.25
DSR: 011 to 020 days 32-545 (5%) -274.26
DSR: 021 to 040 days 64-544 (11%) +189.7
DSR: 041 to 060 days 17-177 (9%) -87.72
DSR: 061 to 100 days 10-103 (9%) -49.91
DSR: 101 to 200 days 0-25 (0%) -25.00
DSR: 201 to 300 days 0-2 (0%) -2.00
DSR: 301 days + 0-15 (0%) -15.00
Certainly there is a big bias for runners coming here and competing after a break of between 21 and 40 days. It is without doubt that this area is where Jane Chapple-Hyams 100/1 winner has come from, but even taking that one out of the equation we still have a seriously good level stakes profit return of 89.7points. Interesting that if your cut off point for freshness comes at 100+ days, it would seem that nothing comes to the Ebor meeting and wins fresh, with a 0-42 record to prove it. It also doesn’t look to be the very best results to be reappearing here too quickly after the last run, with results for those coming back within 20 days managing just 47 wins from 757 runs and a massive level stakes loss of -£300+ to £1 stakes. A quick way to the poor house.
I will almost certainly run this filter through again to see what we come up with.
In fact, that is such a strong figure even taking the 100/1 winner out that I am going to run it now. I will also filter out those runners returning after 100+ days. This will bring down the bets to a more reasonable level.
POINTS TO TAKE FROM THESE OVERALL FIGURES:
I think it could be worth keeping an eye on both Luca Cumani and John Dunlop, whilst Michael Stoute will almost certainly find one of his entries in the winner’s enclosure.
Make note of the 'big names' to avoid from the training ranks.
Look for runners making reappearance after 21-40 days, but not those having first run for over 100 days.
As far as the Sp's are concerned, the jury is out, as we don’t want to filter out the possibility of a nice double figure odds winner. We can have another look at this later.
Well, I have run this filter through and once again, we have some nice angles to look at, and a selection of possible bets, which fall into realistic numbers without having to Dutch several runners per race. One quick note, these results include 53 races with 474 runners. ALSO TO NOTE: these results are from 2003 onwards instead of 2002 as the first run. The singular reason is that I clicked the wrong button when getting the software running. SORRY!
If you had bet every runner that was returning to the track within 21-40 days since its last run you would ended up with these figures
53-474 (11%) +155.30 ROI (32%)
Remember this still includes a 100/1 winner!! which I am trying to disregard, you may like to do the same.
TRAINERS
I'll start with the trainers again, albeit briefly this time
This time with the filter applied I am looking for those trainers with the highest number of winners.
Trainer: L M Cumani 3-7 (42%) +£8.50 ROI (121%)
Trainer: J L Dunlop 3-9 (33%) +£14.00 ROI (155%)
Trainer: M Johnston 3-14 (21%) -£1.25 ROI (-8.93%)
Trainer: Sir Michae 3-19 (15%) +£0.75 (3.94%)
So interesting to see that even though we have applied the filter, both luck Cumani, and john Dunlop still appear in our lists. This is a fairly strong looking angle now, so I shall be keeping a look-out for both these stables runners, especially if coming off a break of between 21 and 40 days.
Mark johnsons figures improve dramatically with this, and Michael Stoute is still there although his strike rate is still poor in comparison, and still shows an overall level stakes loss.
STARTING PRICES
Sorted by Strike rates...
SP: 1/2- 1-1 (100%) +£0.44
SP: 2/1=><5/1 18-65 (27%) +£10.75
SP: FAV 11-44 (25%) -£3.95
SP: 1/1=><2/1 3-15 (20%) -£6.88
SP: 5/1=><10/1 15-119 (12%) -£4.00
SP: 100/1+ 1-12 (8%) +£89.00
SP: 10/1=><20/1 10-126 (7%) +£11.00
SP: 50/1=><100/1 3-46 (6%) +£157.00
SP: 20/1=><50/1 5-119(4%) +£72.00
Well you would certainly expect to see this list run from the shortest price down to the longer shots, which it does do to an extent, but when you spot things out of line, it is worth taking note.
Significantly, even though with the filter we have seen improvements in overall figures, the same evens to 15/8 price bracket that was so unsuccessful overall, has in fact got worse with the filter, with just three winners from 15 runners. The place to be once again is the 2/1-9/2 mark, with a good enough strike rate to produce profits, this time the strike rate for favourites is not so good at 25%, neither has it produced a profitable line in the results.
ONE MORE THING
The next factor will not mean a great deal to you, unless you use the DATAFORM software that I also use, but I have just found a filter on there which has produced the following results over the period.
Eff: DIS Best 15-53 (28%) +£134.55 ROI (253%) Average Sp = 11.5/1
This is effectively according to the software analysis, the best runner in the race over the distance of the race they are competing in. The LSP figure of +134.55 is massive. I am not sure if it includes the 100/1 shot or not, but if not then we have found where those other big priced winners have fallen in.
Finally, one thing that does concern me is that the systems it wools stand now, has not been consistent over the years.
Year: 2003 12-81 (14%) +99.61
Year: 2004 7-91 (7%) -33.50
Year: 2005 18-140 (12%) +59.50
Year: 2006 5-75 (6%) +49.94
Year: 2007 11-87 (12%) -20.25
My fear would be. "Are we going to have a 2005/2006 year, or do we get a repeat of 2007 or 2003. The swings in the figures are quite unusual, and quite unnerving from a potential investment point of view.
We may need to find something a bit more regular
I will run this filter through to see what we find.
Apart from that we are looking at runners returning to the track within 21-40 days, priced between 2/1 and 9/2. Particular attention, if these first two criteria are met, and then we find they are trained by Luca Cumani or John Dunlop.
Let’s run the Distance filter
This is it then, the final set of analysis from a few days work to find the most likely winners for the upcoming few days at York, encompassing the Tote Ebor.
We have run the figures through the software, right from looking at every runner and winner of every race, in the search of some trends and angles to give us an edge for 2008.
Jane Chapple-Hyams 100/1 Ebor shock winner MUDAWIN threw itself into the mix, to make some angles look somewhat better than they were, and in fact, it created a few problems in popping into major losing figures and making them look overall profitable since 2002. We have filtered that out and come up with nice criteria for qualifying.
The selections won’t be many, in fact they will be few, but if they can replicate results from 5 of the last 6 years, we should be laughing into our champagne come the end of day three.
Year: 2003 3-5 (60%) +£11.87 ROI +237% Av Sp 5.62
Year: 2004 3-6 (50%) +£7.50 ROI +125% Av Sp 4.5
Year: 2005 4-7 (57%) +£27.50 ROI +392% Av Sp 8.62
Year: 2006 1-6 (16%) -£4.57 ROI -77% Av Sp 1.44
Year: 2007 3-5 (60%) +£15.25 ROI +305% Av Sp 6.75
Just thought I would add the place figures to this too for further evidence of what a good system this could be.
Year: 2003 3-5 (60%)
Year: 2004 5-6 (83%)
Year: 2005 5-7 (71%)
Year: 2006 2-6 (33%)
Year: 2007 5-5 (100%)
These returning LSP's may not look huge, but remember, these figures are for just three days racing each year. Can you imagine ever having to work again if you could turn over this type of profit every three days throughout the year?
Think of it this way, here are the figures for the entire tested period from 2002 to 2007.
ALL 14-29 (48%) +£57.55 ROI +198% AvSp 6.18
If you take note of the ROI figure, this is the average over the period, as is the Average starting price. Can you just picture not only doubling your money, but trebling it every three days. That’s pretty much what this system is doing each year.
EXCITING ISNT IT?
What About the GOING?
Hopefully you will agree that these are quite an exciting set of results from the past 5 years. The exception of course being 2006 when the system could only muster a single winner in the form of ALEXANDROVA at odds on from 6 qualifiers. I had to question why this was such a poor performing year. Here are the runners from 2006
22/08/2006 PUTRA SQUARE(GB) 4th 7/1 GS
22/08/2006 SOAPY DANGER(GB) 5th 4/1 GS
23/08/2006 FUTUN(GB) 7th 4/1 GS
23/08/2006 ALEXANDROVA(IRE) 1st 1.44 GS
24/08/2006 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE(GB) 6th 12/1 S
24/08/2006 COCKNEY REBEL(IRE) 2nd 6/1 S
It may a consequence of the going being good to soft on the 22nd and 23rd, and deteriorating to Soft on the final day 24th. Other than these races, the only other time that soft had appeared in the official going was on 18th in 2004
18/08/2004 GALEOTA(IRE) 5th 20/1 GS
18/08/2004 MEPHISTO(IRE) 1st 6/1 GS
18/08/2004 RAJWA(USA) 2nd 6/4 GS
19/08/2004 SOAR(GB) 1st 2/1 S
As we scored winners on both goings including on soft from a single qualifier on the 19th, I can’t attribute the going as the deciding factor. The reason for the slump in 2006 remains a mystery.
To look at the performance of the system from the going point of view here is the list.
Going: G 7-13 (53%) +£41.75 ROI +321% AvSp 7.82/1
Going: GF 4-6 (66%) +£14.37 ROI +239% AvSp 5.09/1
Going: GS 2-7 (28%) +£1.44 ROI +20% AvSp 4.22/1
Going: S 1-3 (33%) £0.00 ROI 0% AvSp 3/1
It would seem apparent that the system is more reliable on faster ground, which does raise a concern over how the weather will treat us this week. But what is also interesting is the Average Sp's of the winners. Time and time again when I have run this type of test, the slower the ground the higher the Average Sp's have tended to be, another mystery is quite why this is the total opposite.
Starting Prices
Moving on to the starting prices then, here is a breakdown for all the qualifiers over the past 5 meetings.
SP: FAV 4-10 (40%) +£0.81 ROI +8.14% AvSp 2.7/1
So there are the favourites, a 40% SR is reasonable, but as the average Sp has been just under 3/1, it has only scraped a small LSP.
The full price ranges
SP: 1/2- 1-1 (100%) +£0.44 ROI +44% AvSp 1.44
SP: 1/1=><2/1 1-2 (50%) +£0.87 ROI +43% AvSp 2.87
SP: 2/1=><5/1 6-12 (50%) +£9.25 ROI 77% AvSp 3.54
SP: 5/1=><10/1 4-8 (50%) +£27.00 ROI 337% AvSp 8.75
SP: 10/1=><20/1 2-5 (40%) +£21.00 ROI 420% AvSP 13
SP: 20/1=><50/1 0-1 (0%) -£1.00 ROI -100%
It is pleasing to see that the strike rates for all qualifiers remain at the same 50% for all selections through EVENS to 10/1. Also looking at the Averages within these groups, they fall pretty much right in the middle, so we haven’t been mislead by 6 2/1 winners in the 2/1-5/1 group. Things are pretty even. normally you would expect the strike rates to fall as you move up the bigger prices, but a 50% strike rate for selections falling between 5/1 & 10/1 is fantastic, If only I could find a system that could produce that every week of the year!!!. Even better, one that could give me a 40% strike rate with selections returning 10-/-20/1!!!!!!!!!! I can almost taste retirement.
Race Distances
It may not mean much in the great scheme of things, but nevertheless worth publishing, The performances in differing distanced races.
Dist: 05f 2-3 (66%) +£18.00 ROI +600% AvSp 10.5
Dist: 06f 4-8 (50%) +£22.00 ROI +275% AvSp 7.5
Dist: 07f 4-6 (66%) +£7.62 ROI +127% AvSp 3.4
Dist: 08f 0-2 (0%) -£2.00 ROI -100%
Dist: 09f to 10f 0-2 (0%) -£2.00 ROI -100%
Dist: 11f to 12f 2-4 (50%) +£0.94 ROI +23% AvSp 2.47
Dist: 13f to 14f 2-4 (50%) +£13.00 ROI +325% AvSp 8.5
There certainly seems to be a preference for qualifying the sprinters in this system, with the 5 and 6f races along with the specialist distance of 7f complimenting by making up another 66% of the winners from the second largest sample from a distance. Then there is a gaping hole for 8 and 9f races were qualifiers have drawn a blank from four selections. In fact I can elaborate on that and explain that only one placed from those four runners. That was DOCOFTHEBAY from last year. Does this mean that we should eliminate qualifiers should they be in races of this length? I would suggest not. A hit in either distance in the next race makes a 33% strike rate 1-3, which we would be happy with, so not just yet.
What I also found out with the distance filter when I run it was that it did not produce a single winner who failed to finish either first or second on the prior visit to a race course. This to me is pretty significant.
Placed1stLTO: 9-20 (45%) +£23.55 ROI +117% AvSp 4.84
Placed2nd LTO: 5-9 (55%) +£34.00 ROI +377% AvSp 8.6
CLASS OF RACE
Here is the table to show how the qualifiers performed based on prize monies.
Prize: 07K=><10K 2-2 (100%) +£14.50 ROI +725% AvSp 8.25
Prize: 10K=><20K 2-7 (28%) +£6.50 ROI +92% AvSp 6.75
Prize: 20K=><50K 5-8 (62%) +£16.11 ROI +201% AvSP 4.82
Prize: 50K=> 5-12 (41%) +£20.43 ROI +170% AvSP 6.48
It seems that the system will throw out qualifiers from all ranges of race, right up to Group 1 Class. In fact with closer inspection, we find that the netter the class of race, the better the system seems to be at finding us a winner.
I've included the old classification here from when the classification moved from ALPHA to NUMERIC in 2005. Nevertheless, the strike rates are very impressive in these competitive races.
I keep saying things are interesting, but the most interesting thing here is the system seems able to find an upset too. Obviously the hardest fought races will be the group 1 events, and generally as s rule of thumb the favourites do very well in them. But if you notice the average starting prices of the system winners for group 1s from these results since 2002, 13/2 would suggest we can find the upset 75% of the time. UNBELIEVABLE!!
Class 1 5-8 (62%) +£21.69 ROI +271% AvSp5.93
Class A 4-8 (50%) +£5.37 (67%) AvSP 3.34
Class Gr1 3-4 (75%) +£18.44 ROI +461% AvSp 7.48
Class Gr2 2-5 (40%) +£2.00 ROI +40% AvSp 3.5
Class Gr3 1-2 (50%) +£1.75 ROI +87% AvSP 3.75
FITNESS
Well, we already know that these qualifiers have run between 21 to 40 days previous to appearing at the EBOR festival, but what about previous to that run. Well once again, I have found an amazing little trend. Without exception, each of the qualifiers including all the winners of course had their 2nd to last run between 41 and 100 days before today’s run.
None shorter, none longer all between 41 and 100 days!!!
I have split this into two groups.
DSR2: 041 to 060 days 4-12 (33%) +£26.00 ROI +216% AvSp 9.5
DSR2: 061 to 100 days 5-7 (71%) +£16.80 ROI +240% AvSP 4.76
____________________
It would seem the system has no preference for either handicap or Stakes races either.
Type: Handicaps 3-9 (33%) +£21.00 ROI +233% AvSP 10
Type: Stakes 11-20 (55%) +£36.54 ROI +182% AvSP 5.14
Handicap winners have produced some nice exciting winners, but the system certainly gets more involved with the stakes races. Another quick titbit worth a mention is a 100% record in Fillies races.
SpecType: Fillies 4-4 (100%) +£7.94 ROI +198% AvSp 2.98
SpecType: Maiden 2-3 (66%) +£10.50 ROI +350% AvSp 6.75
It’s also been fairly handy at finding a maiden winner too!.
The final thing I will leave you with is a list of qualifiers and results from the tested period.
Date Qualifier Placed Going Trainer Jockey
19/08/2003-MINGUN(USA) 4th GF A P O'Brie M J Kinane
19/08/2003 YAWMI(GB) 8th GF B W Hills R Hills
19/08/2003 RULE OF LAW(USA) 1st GF D R Loder J P Spence
21/08/2003 JAGGER(GB) 1st GF G A Butler E Ahern
21/08/2003 CARRY ON KATIE(USA)1st GF J Noseda L Dettori
17/08/2004 ELLIOTS WORLD(IRE) 1st G M Johnston J Fanning
17/08/2004 OUDE(USA) 2nd G Saeed Bin L Dettori
18/08/2004 GALEOTA(IRE) 5th GS R Hannon R Hughes
18/08/2004 MEPHISTO(IRE)1st GS L M Cumani D Holland
18/08/2004 RAJWA(USA) 2nd GS Saeed Bin L Dettori
19/08/2004 SOAR(GB) 1st S J R Fansha J P Murtag
16/08/2005 FIRENZE(GB) 6th G J R Fansha J P Spence
17/08/2005 JOHANNES(IRE)1st G D Nicholls A Nicholls
17/08/2005 BALKAN KNIGHT(GB) 4th G D R C Elsw J F Egan
17/08/2005 COLORUS(IRE) 4th G R A Fahey K Fallon
18/08/2005 LA CUCARACHA(GB) 1st G B W Hills M Hills
27/08/2005 SIR NOD(GB) 1st G Miss J Fei T Eaves
31/08/2005 CHARLIE COOL(GB) 1st GF W J Haggas K Fallon
22/08/2006 PUTRA SQUARE(GB) 4th GS P F I Cole E Ahern
22/08/2006 SOAPY DANGER(GB) 5th GS M Johnston K Darley
23/08/2006 FUTUN(GB) 7th GS L M Cumani N Mackay
23/08/2006 ALEXANDROVA(IRE) 1st GS APO'Brien MKinane
24/08/2006 ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE(GB) 6th S W J Knight P Doe
24/08/2006 COCKNEY REBEL(IRE) 2nd S G A Huffer D O'Donoho
21/08/2007 FAST COMPANY(IRE) 1st G B J Meehan R L Moore
22/08/2007 SCRIPTWRITER(IRE) 3rd G Saeed Bin K McEvoy
23/08/2007 KINGSGATE NATIVE(IRE)1st G J R Best J Quinn
23/08/2007 DOCOFTHEBAY(IRE) 2nd G J A Osborn R L Moore
23/08/2007 WANNABE POSH(IRE) 1st G J L Dunlop E Ahern
If anyone would like the full spreadsheet of either the breakdown of results categories or the full qualifiers list with classifications too, then just let me know your e-mail address and I will forward the information. These spreadsheets may also give anyone who wants to start recording results, the type of spreadsheet template that would be idea, either as it is or modified.
Anyway, there we have it. After running the dataform system analyser a couple of times we would seem to have a fairly safe little system for this years meeting. Once again, a small warning for the weather, and lets hope we get a full compliment of around 6 or 7 qualifiers split equally over the three days to give us some good interest. better still lets keep out fingers crossed for some similar success to that already witnessed in previous years.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
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With the weights now out it's time to crack this race. The lowest rated horse in the last 6 runnings has been 91/91@Newbury/92/88/92/90 so it seems pointless even considering anything rated lower than that. As has been reported in the press Harris Tweed is very much a borderline case with regards to whether he'll get in or not and if he does he'll obviously have a pretty good chance, but he will need to improve again after being raised for his second at Newmarket.
There's a couple I like and they are both trained by Sir Michael Stoute, namely Imposing and Rosika. Imposing remains a well handicapped horse with lots of solid form to his name and a greater test of stamina looks sure to be the making of him. Even if Harros Tweed gets in it's difficult to see Imposing not being around 6/1 on the day. I haven't backed Rosika yet as I suspect she may not run in the race as being a filly chasing black type is of greater importance (also entered in Yorkshire Oaks) than prize money but she is crying out for the step up to a mile and three quarters. She's entered in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood next week and if she runs there I'd be amazed if she didn't show improvement and prove herself officially well in for the race.
There's a couple I like and they are both trained by Sir Michael Stoute, namely Imposing and Rosika. Imposing remains a well handicapped horse with lots of solid form to his name and a greater test of stamina looks sure to be the making of him. Even if Harros Tweed gets in it's difficult to see Imposing not being around 6/1 on the day. I haven't backed Rosika yet as I suspect she may not run in the race as being a filly chasing black type is of greater importance (also entered in Yorkshire Oaks) than prize money but she is crying out for the step up to a mile and three quarters. She's entered in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood next week and if she runs there I'd be amazed if she didn't show improvement and prove herself officially well in for the race.
BackHander
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I like Red Cadeaux @20s with Lads.
What does everyone think of Rosika?
She looks on a very favourable mark to me, and that's before you consider her profile with respect to her trainer. Looks the ideal type, and I'd almost back her at half the price..
Edit: Just saw your post now DJ. Glad to have read it!
She looks on a very favourable mark to me, and that's before you consider her profile with respect to her trainer. Looks the ideal type, and I'd almost back her at half the price..
Edit: Just saw your post now DJ. Glad to have read it!
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Gamla Stan
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Tricky contest. Got it down to four or five, in no particular order...
Hillview Boy (Would like some rain I suspect)
Dangerous Midge (Proper horse, very very quick time LTO and looks the most progressive)
Rosika (Could be on a very very good mark)
Elyaadi (Got a terrible ride LTO)
Demolition
Hillview Boy (Would like some rain I suspect)
Dangerous Midge (Proper horse, very very quick time LTO and looks the most progressive)
Rosika (Could be on a very very good mark)
Elyaadi (Got a terrible ride LTO)
Demolition
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Shadow Leader
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Dangerous Midge has been crying out for a trip for a long time so far as I can see. I think he's classy enough to win this off top weight and have been waiting for him to run this far for over a year now.
Agree with you on Elyaadi and the ride last time, the ground will not put me off Hillview Boy though.
Prospect Wells interests me too. Plenty of weight on the face of it but some of his 3yo form is solid.
What is it about NH trainers that has them monopolising the big staying handicaps in recent years?
Martin, Pipe, Henderson, Mullins, McCain, Elliott, the list goes on.
And are the likes of Nicholls missing a trick by not running some of their horses in these races?
Martin, Pipe, Henderson, Mullins, McCain, Elliott, the list goes on.
And are the likes of Nicholls missing a trick by not running some of their horses in these races?
I think you're on the right track.
Sesenta, Overturn, Caracciola, Mamlook, Junior, Arc Bleu and the rest of them all started on the flat before going over hurdles, while Nicholls has relatively few ex-flat types in his yard.
Celestial Halo would be one of the exceptions, though, and there were others in the past such as Sporazene and Azertyuiop. But I suppose they were too good for the flat.
Sesenta, Overturn, Caracciola, Mamlook, Junior, Arc Bleu and the rest of them all started on the flat before going over hurdles, while Nicholls has relatively few ex-flat types in his yard.
Celestial Halo would be one of the exceptions, though, and there were others in the past such as Sporazene and Azertyuiop. But I suppose they were too good for the flat.
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Shadow Leader
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Nicholls even has a licence for the flat. Not that it would be a problem for him to get one of course, I just don't think he was one at present.
I was slightly disappointed with Dangerous Midge today as I've long thought he's a very good horse. That said they did go off very fast and he so maybe he didn't run so badly, considering he had top weight, was up behind the leaders for much of the race before having nowhere to go and having to come wide in the end, racing virtually alone for the final couple of furlongs.
I was slightly disappointed with Dangerous Midge today as I've long thought he's a very good horse. That said they did go off very fast and he so maybe he didn't run so badly, considering he had top weight, was up behind the leaders for much of the race before having nowhere to go and having to come wide in the end, racing virtually alone for the final couple of furlongs.