The Fugue

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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Poring over yesterday's betting record got me thinking of The Fugue.

I thought going into the Oaks she didn't have a snotter's chance so I was a wee bit surprised by how well she ran and she did look a wee bit unlucky in running. The debate on the sectional times brought forward the argument that she'd run the Epsom straight faster than Camelot.

I bought it and reckoned on that basis that she was a bit of a good thing yesterday but she didn't seem to run particularly well.

I'm just wondering:

Did she have an off day yesterday?
Did it come too soon after the Oaks?
Are those sectional conclusions/interpretations inaccurate?
Have I got too much time on my hands?
 
Top horses will always struggle at Royal Ascot when it is their 4th run since the day of the Guineas. She ran really well however, and I would say for now the winner is top class, and The Fugue may be better than she looked yesterday.
 
I think she ran ok, although I expected her to reverse the form with Shirocco Star much more authoratively and she didn't stretch away from Twirl like you might have expected after York. No chance with the winner, though.
 
whether running faster than Camelot late on is meritworthy or not depends on how much faster than Camelot she went early on..she didn't go faster early so that has to be balanced against the late speed

its like quoting bare times as evidence of superiority.

Frankel ran relatively slowly in the latter part of the guineas...just looking at his finish time tells you nothing without knowing the early sectionals..just based on his finishing effort..if quoted as Fugues has been..he would look like a carthorse
 
I am looking forward to backing her again after a break on quicker ground. I backed her for the Oaks and felt she was unlucky not to win, or at the very least have her chance at winning. I thought the quick runs (Guineas, Musidora, Oaks and then Ribblesdale) and the ground was against her yesterday so left her alone. She looked very flat to me yesterday.
 
I'm not sure I entirely buy the ground excuse really.

The Fugue was almost certainly poorly placed given the way the race panned out at Epsom, but that isn't necessarily to suggest that she would be suited to a thorough test at the trip, which the Ribblesdale certainly seemed to be.

I may be way off base, but I wasn't convinced that The Fugue saw out her race in the Ribblesdale. Granted, she nosed out Shirocco Star close home, but she had set what looked a (possibly over?) strong gallop while also racing keenly through the early stages. I thought the Morrison filly emerged a clear second best actually, for all that she looks a tricky ride.
 
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