Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Good stuff EC - would be wary that there appeared to be plenty of pace on in Glenridding's last run when he had to be hard ridden to take the lead and still went on to win.
The Grey Horse Race
- Thread starter EC1
- Start date
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Good call EC - Greensward goes in with a last to first stretch run 
EC1
On a break
even though emmebbe didn't make it - the race panned out nice
yes IS....speed of the speed..just thought there might be too much here..worked out nice
yes IS....speed of the speed..just thought there might be too much here..worked out nice
swedish chef
At the Start
Great work again EC1 - I think its time to sit up and take notice of these 
G
Gearoid
Guest
Missed this today but please keep posting.
EC1
On a break
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EC1
On a break
7.05 Bath
Kilburn - generally leads
Very Well Red - mainly leads
Captain Macarry - leads or presses lead
One Scoop Or Two - mainly leads
Petomic - mainly leads at trip
A decent pace should ensue here and the above are discarded just on pace angle.
Advertise - up in class and OHR - won amateur race last time - at the prices not one that stands out to me
Carnivore - 7f horse who won weak claimer at further - no
Peaceful Means - no
Rosenblat - no
3 Contenders
Flying Silks - Poor run last time out - 2nd run in visor then - will like stiff nature of pace and track here though and jockey booking interesting - Sanders just 1/2 in 5 years for stable. Not an obvious choice but one of those I can't clearly discount and the type you leave out that go and win. The price allows for doubts.
Effigy - Best recent run off 78 when just beaten so handicapped to win off 76 - recent stable form a slight concern - 1/25 - but again one of those that if discounted just on that.. will go and win.
Full Victory - well handicapped - recently run well off 64 at the track - now off 61. Mixture of run styles but most likely to be held up in this. Dwyer has not ridden for stable before - so could be viewed as interesting in that aspect.
currently the best prices away from Betfair are 12/1 - 8/1 - 16/1 respectively
will split a twenty between these later..10 on Effigy and a fiver each on the other two
Kilburn - generally leads
Very Well Red - mainly leads
Captain Macarry - leads or presses lead
One Scoop Or Two - mainly leads
Petomic - mainly leads at trip
A decent pace should ensue here and the above are discarded just on pace angle.
Advertise - up in class and OHR - won amateur race last time - at the prices not one that stands out to me
Carnivore - 7f horse who won weak claimer at further - no
Peaceful Means - no
Rosenblat - no
3 Contenders
Flying Silks - Poor run last time out - 2nd run in visor then - will like stiff nature of pace and track here though and jockey booking interesting - Sanders just 1/2 in 5 years for stable. Not an obvious choice but one of those I can't clearly discount and the type you leave out that go and win. The price allows for doubts.
Effigy - Best recent run off 78 when just beaten so handicapped to win off 76 - recent stable form a slight concern - 1/25 - but again one of those that if discounted just on that.. will go and win.
Full Victory - well handicapped - recently run well off 64 at the track - now off 61. Mixture of run styles but most likely to be held up in this. Dwyer has not ridden for stable before - so could be viewed as interesting in that aspect.
currently the best prices away from Betfair are 12/1 - 8/1 - 16/1 respectively
will split a twenty between these later..10 on Effigy and a fiver each on the other two
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EC1 - hope you backed the lovely LADY FLORENCE last meeting at Brighton, when she racked up her sixth triumph there? She does so love a quirky track!
KILBURN was rather ill-behaved at Goodwood in the pre-parade ring, not liking to be saddled in the boxes where he didn't like the bushes obscuring his view. If he can control himself before going to post, he might be a good thing. Alastair Lidderdale's modest string is picking up - a win a few days back for the hurdling grey mare KIJIVU and also for the previously lacklustre GROSS PROPHET, so he might have further luck with this lad, too.
KILBURN was rather ill-behaved at Goodwood in the pre-parade ring, not liking to be saddled in the boxes where he didn't like the bushes obscuring his view. If he can control himself before going to post, he might be a good thing. Alastair Lidderdale's modest string is picking up - a win a few days back for the hurdling grey mare KIJIVU and also for the previously lacklustre GROSS PROPHET, so he might have further luck with this lad, too.
EC1
On a break
no i didn't back Florence Kri
EC1
On a break
they went a good pace..got 3rd and 4th i think..the winner wasn't on the pace this time and still managed it
EC1
On a break
4.20 York 2m Good/Firm
trying to work a bit more numerically here
Giving rating for run style
1 = Led/Prominent
2 = Chase/Track leaders
3 =Middle/Held Up
putting those against the last 3 Flat runs for each horse
111 Wicked Daze
111 Abayaan
211 Simonside
112 Bergonzi
221 Ceoil An Aith
122 Callisto Moon
222 Hawridge King
213 Arab League
313 The Last Alzao
323 Rare Ruby
323 Aurorian
333 Theola
333 Satwa Gold
333 Markington
333 Beat The Shower
Then using this scale for the last 3 totalled up
3 = Will Lead
4 = Probably Lead
5 = Might Lead
6 = Chase
7 = Mid
8 = Mid/Held Up
9 = Held Up
gives:
3 Wicked Daze
3 Abayaan
4 Simonside
4 Bergonzi
5 Ceoil An Aith
5 Callisto Moon
6 Hawridge King
6 Arab League
7 The Last Alzao
8 Rare Ruby
8 Aurorian
9 Theola
9 Satwa Gold
9 Markington
9 Beat The Shower
With four horses having a rating of 4 or less - plus a couple rated 5 who may lead or try to lead - we have got 6 horses who should hopefully..in some combination ...make this a strongly run race - which should suit horses rated 7 or higher.
So just the seven horses to look at
The Last Alzao
40% s/r on fast ground
possibly 4lbs poorly handicapped
? at the trip
7/10
Rare Ruby
40% s/r on fast ground
possibly 4lbs poorly handicapped
Trip ok
8/10
Aurorian
Not won on fast ground
On a winning mark
? at Trip
7/10
Theola
29% on fast ground
On a winning mark
Trip ok
9/10
Satwa Gold
Not won on fast ground - close 3rd off 83 though
On a winning mark
Trip ok
9/10
Markington
40% on fast ground
just 1 lb poorly handicapped
Trip ok
Ignore last run - ran poorly last twice at Goodwood
9/10
Beat The Shower
50% on fast ground
5lb poorly handicapped
Trip only slight ? as has won on slow ground doing best work late
8/10
Theola + Satwa Gold + Markington make most appeal
Beat The Shower could be expensive to leave out - but has gone up a bit in the handicap after just beating Royal Trooper who himself was fairly handicapped
current prices on Betfair
THEOLA = 9/1
SATWA GOLD = 13/2
MARKINGTON = 9/1
will shove a tenner on each at some point
trying to work a bit more numerically here
Giving rating for run style
1 = Led/Prominent
2 = Chase/Track leaders
3 =Middle/Held Up
putting those against the last 3 Flat runs for each horse
111 Wicked Daze
111 Abayaan
211 Simonside
112 Bergonzi
221 Ceoil An Aith
122 Callisto Moon
222 Hawridge King
213 Arab League
313 The Last Alzao
323 Rare Ruby
323 Aurorian
333 Theola
333 Satwa Gold
333 Markington
333 Beat The Shower
Then using this scale for the last 3 totalled up
3 = Will Lead
4 = Probably Lead
5 = Might Lead
6 = Chase
7 = Mid
8 = Mid/Held Up
9 = Held Up
gives:
3 Wicked Daze
3 Abayaan
4 Simonside
4 Bergonzi
5 Ceoil An Aith
5 Callisto Moon
6 Hawridge King
6 Arab League
7 The Last Alzao
8 Rare Ruby
8 Aurorian
9 Theola
9 Satwa Gold
9 Markington
9 Beat The Shower
With four horses having a rating of 4 or less - plus a couple rated 5 who may lead or try to lead - we have got 6 horses who should hopefully..in some combination ...make this a strongly run race - which should suit horses rated 7 or higher.
So just the seven horses to look at
The Last Alzao
40% s/r on fast ground
possibly 4lbs poorly handicapped
? at the trip
7/10
Rare Ruby
40% s/r on fast ground
possibly 4lbs poorly handicapped
Trip ok
8/10
Aurorian
Not won on fast ground
On a winning mark
? at Trip
7/10
Theola
29% on fast ground
On a winning mark
Trip ok
9/10
Satwa Gold
Not won on fast ground - close 3rd off 83 though
On a winning mark
Trip ok
9/10
Markington
40% on fast ground
just 1 lb poorly handicapped
Trip ok
Ignore last run - ran poorly last twice at Goodwood
9/10
Beat The Shower
50% on fast ground
5lb poorly handicapped
Trip only slight ? as has won on slow ground doing best work late
8/10
Theola + Satwa Gold + Markington make most appeal
Beat The Shower could be expensive to leave out - but has gone up a bit in the handicap after just beating Royal Trooper who himself was fairly handicapped
current prices on Betfair
THEOLA = 9/1
SATWA GOLD = 13/2
MARKINGTON = 9/1
will shove a tenner on each at some point
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EC1
On a break
thats two long distance races where its not really worked too well.
will stick to the shorter distances where run style maybe a little more consistent
will stick to the shorter distances where run style maybe a little more consistent