The Hennessy

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Only a couple of weeks away now.

You have to respect Big Bucks on his stable alone, and Nicholls does seem pretty confident about his chances. But at 4/1 and 9/2 he is surely a little too short based on what he has actually achieved?

Any strong fancies? A few I like would be Albertas Run, Slim Pickings and High Chimes.

Albertas Run will improve a ton for his comeback run which had Hennessy prep written all over it imo. Probably did not get the credit he deserved last season when most where comparing his SunAlliance win to Denman's the year before.

Slim Pickings is the type of horse you would love to own. Rarely runs a bad race, so consistent, good attitude and a talented sort as well. Fine comeback run over a trip too short, plenty will have him written off as just a National type horse but that argueably stretches his stamina too much. Sounds claims.

High Chimes was last seen impressing at Cheltenham last season. A bit in/out performer but stays really well, yard always on form this time of year and could be a live one. Less confident about him than the other two but he still catches my eye.

Any fancies?
 
I pray for lots and lots of rain for Verasi - other than that, I'm probably going to be a watcher.
 
Air Force One for me. Ran a cracker at Ascot the other day and as a second season chaser fits the profile of past winners.
 
It's a very open race this year, with Denman out, but Big Buck's will be a tough nut to crack.

I fancy at least four others of those mentioned above too! - but it might be a non-betting race for me as I love many of the runners (which have all won for me in the last year or two) and would hate to feel sorry if any of those won LOL
 
All Nicholls' horses tend to be ridiculous prices - and they are not ALL that good - but some are; and he can get them ready for the big ones. And at this stage of the season they are usually big improvers

Charlie Mann's current strike rate is notably good so far this year - I wonder if his senior staff has changed LOL
 
I can't have Big Buck's at all.

The comment about Charlie Mann - tongue in cheek? I'm assumuing you know that he has Mr & Mrs Jeremy Young in the yard now...
 
I actually think Dear Villez has the best prospects of the Nicholls entries. Wants this trip, and handles soft ground well.
 
I was only pointing out they were there dj - not making assumptions about how much they can improve things! They've trained a few PTP winners and Jeremy was head lad at Nicholls for long enough - he and Bridget, as a former Mrs Nicholls, must have picked up something along the way though!
 
It's interesting that Martin has given Patsy Hall an entry. Ran well at Cheltenham and a fair enough intro. A return to his best would make him very tough to beat.
 
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I suppose weight wise it would make sense to run Royal County Star in the Hennessy and Patsy Hall in the Troytown. I don't think I could trust Royal County Star again after the Irish National last year.
 
I would like to say air force one to win as i have him in the same line as imperial commander, binocular, crack away jack and kauto star in my ttf. Do have a soft stop for alberta`s run though backed him every race last season.
 
I would have to be a lot more convinced about Big bucks jumping holding up in a testing field before taking that price

Albertas last run was a worry. Charlie Mann is a bigger worry
 
Ladbrokes prices...

Big Buck's 9/2
Air Force One 6/1
Character Building 6/1
Island Flyer 7/1
Oedipe 7/1
Albertas Run 12/1
Dear Villez 12/1
Slim Pickings 12/1
High Chimes 16/1
New Alco 16/1
Royal County Star 16/1
Snoopy Loopy 16/1
Knowhere 20/1
Ornais 20/1
Verasi 20/1
Parsons Legacy 25/1
Patsy Hall 25/1
Always Waining 33/1
Madison Du Berlais 33/1
Monkerhostin 40/1
My Will 40/1
 
I think it's far more open than the already open betting suggests. There is not one horse that I would rule out with any level of confidence. Character Building is my idea of the most likely winner, but marginal whether he represents value. I still like Patsy Hall but he's not going to win at 25/1 and if he shortens you feel like you've missed the boat. I'm not happy backing him at this stage while Martin still has 2 left in.
 
Albertas Run for me - Jonjo has run horses down the field in grad chases before and lined them up for a big handicap (see Exotic Dancer) and he has the class to take a race like this for sure. Would be half the price but for that warm up run.
 
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