The John Smith's Cup

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,754
Now that Ascot is out of the way, the next big thing, for me at any rate, is the John Smith's Cup. The stubborn old duffer in me still prefers to call it the Magnet Cup as it was known for long enough.

It's probably the top middle-distance handicap of the summer and always a challenge to unravel, which is part of the fun for me.

This year's renewal is back up to £200k so I expect more of the class entries to hold their ground than in the last two years' runnings.

For example, current top weight Majestic Dawn (OR 112, 10-0) doesn't have any other upcoming entries so it's probably either this or the Cambridgeshire for him and if it's the latter then a whip-flailing seventh or eighth place in this might get it down to 109 so I can see it standing its ground.

Last year a rating of 92 made the cut (22 max runners) but I can see it being 95/96 this time round because of the prize money. There are currently six entries on 97 occupying positions 19 to 24 on the card and they're all likely to make it. If I owned or trained anything rated 95 or 96 I'd probably take my chances and gamble on enough coming out rather than incur a penalty. That takes us down to entry #28, Winter Reprise (8-11).

It's the next dozen or so entries that might be worth watching over the next couple of weeks because they'll almost certainly need a penalty to have any chance of making the cut.

There won't be any bandit steep-curve 3yos in the race as they're too far down to have any chance, even with penalties. That eases the challenge a fair bit. The highest rated of that age is Oneforthegutter but a 5lbs penalty will only take him up to those currently in the mid-30s on the card.

I've made my first move in the ante-post market with Caradoc 25/1. At #27 on the card, I think it will be safe, will get in near the bottom of the handicap and it looks to me better than ever based on its second a couple of runs back when it did best of those coming from the back at Goodwood in a slowly-run race. I suspect its subsequent runs have been about keeping its mark below 100 for this race, in which it raced too freely when seventh to Sinjaari in 2020. It was a strongly backed second favourite to an even money favourite (which won) at Goodwood so I half-expect it to be nearer 10/1, possibly even shorter, come the day.
 
Last edited:
I'm on Mahrajaan at 12s for this. I thought he travelled really well before tiring on his seasonal bow and Contact franked the form in the DoE
 
I glanced at the list of runners yesterday to see if Faylaq was an entry. It's not, but Cockalorum is. There's a little evidence (as you already alluded to I think, DO) they may have been trying to get the mark down to have another go at this. 33s across the board. I'd have wanted 40-1 or higher at this stage, really, given it's going to be tough to make all for sure.

Marie's Diamond looks very interesting to me. 33-1 most, 50 PP and BF.

Some of the Meydan winter form over a mile and a quarter reads well, and I like the way MD didn't cave when the leaders went away in the recent mile listed race, and seemed to be closing again at the finish (or at a minimum keeping going strongly enough without folding). Suggested that over an extra 2f it could have been a different winner. We know that MD can handle strongly run races.

And an interesting note...both Cockalorum and Marie's are with Roger Fell (MD left Mark Johnston and Middleham Park prior to the Meydan efforts). So, we know Roger can go close in the Magnet with a 6 year old, and you'd have to say that on paper MD would appear to be a class higher than the Cockster??


I've gone for the double for now with Island B in the Plate. I didn't think he would be able to handle the younger ones in the Copper Horse over 1m6f. I think he ran as well as could be expected. I'd say they clearly had the Plate in mind since coming back from Dubai (and actually probably since last June, when he lost a shoe and still finished an admirable 4th).

But I don't know what was going on in their heads last year. Look at the Ascot 2 miler two summers ago. The quote after the race was along the lines of 'perfect ride, that's the way he wants it, turned off in last till storming home over the last two'......so why tf did Dawson go off in front in the plate?? I was gutted, and especially so since the ultimate winner came from stone last.

But, having said that, it was still an impressive run and he's proved since that going off in front isn't the end of the game. There's obviously a big chance he left the race behind last year and that was the big chance. It's going to be interesting to see whether they try to go from the front again or anchor out the back.
 
Last edited:
JEWEL IN MY CROWN 40/1 as come up in my alerts for this race.

Opinions welcome.

Dont think it will get in unless it wins in between.
 
Last edited:
chaumi said:
I glanced at the list of runners yesterday to see if Faylaq was an entry. It's not, but Cockalorum is. There's a little evidence (as you already alluded to I think, DO) they may have been trying to get the mark down to have another go at this. 33s across the board. I'd have wanted 40-1 or higher at this stage, really, given it's going to be tough to make all for sure.

Marie's Diamond looks very interesting to me. 33-1 most, 50 PP and BF.

Some of the Meydan winter form over a mile and a quarter reads well, and I like the way MD didn't cave when the leaders went away in the recent mile listed race, and seemed to be closing again at the finish (or at a minimum keeping going strongly enough without folding). Suggested that over an extra 2f it could have been a different winner. We know that MD can handle strongly run races.

And an interesting note...both Cockalorum and Marie's are with Roger Fell (MD left Mark Johnston and Middleham Park prior to the Meydan efforts). So, we know Roger can go close in the Magnet with a 6 year old, and you'd have to say that on paper MD would appear to be a class higher than the Cockster??
Click to expand...

Looks to me like most of MD's best form is around a mile. Its best RPRs are.

Cockalorum is certainly on my radar. He got in last year off this mark and was beaten in a photo but, as I say, I think it will struggle to get in due to more standing their ground thanks to the prize money.

Outsider said:
JEWEL IN MY CROWN 40/1 as come up in my alerts for this race.

Opinions welcome.

Dont think it will get in unless it wins in between.
Click to expand...

Not sure even a double penalty will get it in and if it does pick up the penalty or penalties, those will compromise his chances.

I suspect, unless something suddenly hits such a steep curve that it makes a penalty irrelevant, that connections will gamble on enough coming out, even those rated closer to 90.
 
chaumi said:
I've gone for the double for now with Island B in the Plate. I didn't think he would be able to handle the younger ones in the Copper Horse over 1m6f. I think he ran as well as could be expected. I'd say they clearly had the Plate in mind since coming back from Dubai (and actually probably since last June, when he lost a shoe and still finished an admirable 4th).
Click to expand...

This prompted me to look at the Newcastle race. I've taken Skycutter at 40s and the double with Caradoc to give me something to slaver over during the next couple of weeks :)

Skycutter is the one that Ben Curtis was "riding" at Haydock when he put his shoulder out. It was in the process of posting a career best and I love the idea of this injury being feigned. I'm not sure Dick Francis would have thought that believable. And we know the trainer is an utter bandit at the game.
 
I've took 20/1 boosted to 22/1 BRILLIANT LIGHT.

Ew trixie with FIND 45/1 And SKYCUTTER 45/1

got to do Skycutter after putting it up on the horses to follow thread.
 
I'll add Achelois into the mix as well. Doesn't look like it sees the 1m2f trip out on soft ground, but otherwise looks like the progressive sort that Balding does well with in these kind of races. He's very good at targeting them well out too, and I'd imagine this has been the target for some considerable time. I'd say his chances are weather dependant though.

Brilliant Light is definitely interesting if he runs here. I'd prefer to hear some noise that he's intended for the race though.

I'm with Euro though and I'm on Mahrajaan at 12/1. If it's won by a 4yo I suspect it'll be this one.
 
So the next entry stage for this race will be tomorrow.

Does anyone have any comments about Harry Redkapps horse Moktasaab?

He definately improved since his gelding op. Looked to me like he wanted 12F after Epsom but then ran no race at Ascot. He is young enough at four years of age to bounce back. I just wonder will they try some new headgear or a tongue tie or something like that.

Would anyone else give him any sort of an each way chance?
 
Last edited:
He's certain to make the cut, assuming he's going for the race (and why wouldn't he, given the quality of race he's been running in).

The winner gets over £100k here so I'd work on the assumption the plan has been this race since his last win. Looked a non-stayer at Ascot and hung badly at Epsom so not hard to strike those runs out of his record.

Definitely short-list material and a nice price at this stage. If he's declared tomorrow I might have a pop myself.
 
Last edited:
Yes and he has that Goodwood form when he beat Caradoc.

Be very interested if they put some headgear or him or a tongue tie.
 
Marb said:
So the next entry stage for this race will be tomorrow.

Does anyone have any comments about Harry Redkapps horse Moktasaab?

He definately improved since his gelding op. Looked to me like he wanted 12F after Epsom but then ran no race at Ascot. He is young enough at four years of age to bounce back. I just wonder will they try some new headgear or a tongue tie or something like that.

Would anyone else give him any sort of an each way chance?
Click to expand...

Not declared. Hope you held off on backing it, Marb.
 
I've done 4 at the moment.

Cockalorum 40s
Brilliant light 22/1
INTELLOGENT 16/1
Jewel in my crown 40/1
 
Good prices there, Outsider.

JIMC, which I mentioned on the other thread yesterday is up 6lbs - I thought it would be more - so will be officially well in on the day and at #22 on the card makes the cut.
 
Outsider said:
I've done 4 at the moment.

Cockalorum 40s
Brilliant light 22/1
INTELLOGENT 16/1
Jewel in my crown 40/1
Click to expand...

5 for me antepost:

Mahrajaan 12/1
Greatgadian 16/1
Brilliant Light 20/1
Achelois 25/1
Caradoc 25/1

I thought I'd backed Intellogent as well, but I can only assume I didn't hit the 'confirm bet' button, which is very annoying. I've missed the price now and he's too short at 8/1.

Not all of it will still be running as I prefer to lock a profit in on the exchange with these kind of races.
 
Back
Top