The Lincoln
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
I know a few who was emailed this from peter naughton at 16/1.
My choices are WHAT A STORY 25/1 caught my eye at doncaster at doncaster winning over 7f on soft.impressed me.
Up 8lb for that and ran 3rd in january.obviously didnt want to win that and get put up again.runs off a mark of 92.
Trained by Keith Dalgeish.
The other one is Lord Glitters stablemate Bravery who won it last year and is 5lb lower.25/1
My choices are WHAT A STORY 25/1 caught my eye at doncaster at doncaster winning over 7f on soft.impressed me.
Up 8lb for that and ran 3rd in january.obviously didnt want to win that and get put up again.runs off a mark of 92.
Trained by Keith Dalgeish.
The other one is Lord Glitters stablemate Bravery who won it last year and is 5lb lower.25/1
Nonannyimfine
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I'll never forget last year. Bravery cost me the guts of 5k ''twas a sickener moore couldn't complete the Yankee for me and no doubt many other punters. I'm gonna throw a dart at one of faheys say another touch at 25-1.
gigilo
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All its form is on soft ground and its best run was when it won at ascot and the race was slow by over 7 seconds made up ground from impossible position,anything faster than gd/sft I can't see it running to form..it obviously loves desperate ground even if trainer doesn't want him running on it that could just be because its first time out and he hasn't had a winner in 70+ runs..
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Dunno, Giggs; the horse ran a blinder - over an inadequate trip - on his debut for the stable, on Ascot ground the RP timed as g/s.
I live not too far from Donny and - all but a few sheltered spots - the snow's virtually disappeared already. The forecast's for drying ground, with light rain for Friday evening/Saturday morning, and there looks every chance he'll run; given those circumstances. D. O'M clearly thinks he's group class, but a gelding, and would earn more for winning this than he would most gp2's later.
Having said all that, I'm intrigued by the early booking of Ryan Moore for Fire Brigade. He's ridden the Haggas' 2nd fav on his last 2 outings, so FB must be showing plenty at home. A real danger, imo, though your selection might do him for toe.
I live not too far from Donny and - all but a few sheltered spots - the snow's virtually disappeared already. The forecast's for drying ground, with light rain for Friday evening/Saturday morning, and there looks every chance he'll run; given those circumstances. D. O'M clearly thinks he's group class, but a gelding, and would earn more for winning this than he would most gp2's later.
Having said all that, I'm intrigued by the early booking of Ryan Moore for Fire Brigade. He's ridden the Haggas' 2nd fav on his last 2 outings, so FB must be showing plenty at home. A real danger, imo, though your selection might do him for toe.
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What is depressing is that the race is worth less than in 2009 yet Arc Can find enormous amounts of cash to throw at its tedious AW championships handicaps.
Desert Orchid
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gigilo
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Didn't have you down as a drinker, gigilo
Havn't had a drink for 7 years unfortunately,with health problems only makes me feel unwell with the medications to have to take me and my partner havn't been out for a nightout since..Fire brigades 6/1 and think some of that is because lord glitters not going to run,on betfair 12/1 now 7/1 with books yesterday was around 13/2 on betfair.If it doesn't run Saturday you won't even see it till the autumn.
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Desert Orchid
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No offence intended, gigilo
gigilo
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No offence intended, gigilo
No offence at all fella,would love to have a drink and a night out am determined at some point through the summer going to have a night out with my partner daughters 16 soon so can look after herself,want to go racing again as well get some fresh air..
Won't get in to the Lincoln I should have thought - interestingly though the RP card shows Ryan Moore having been booked for What A Story in the Spring Mile .
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I've just wrote a place for my place it repeats some of the above so apologies for that but I thought it might be of interest so I'll copy it over.
Saturday 24th March
The Lincoln and the Spring Mile
So I thought it best I cast my eye over these 2 races as we start to put our brains into flat mode.
The first one to catch my eye in the Lincoln from a value point of view is Donncha 25/1. Third in last years event doing all his best work at the finish but all to late...no prizes for guessing who was in the saddle on that occasion That was off a mark of 100. The year before he went even closer just being beaten a neck into second off a mark of 97 and that is the mark he will line up off on Saturday. Both times he came to the race first time out as he does this year I can see no reason why he won't run a big race again this time around. You could say last years form was slightly flattering as 3 of the first 4 home were probably the 3 back markers at the 2 pole so they'd obviously gone off too fast in front but even so Donncha should run a big race here from 3lb lower. The most likely scenario is that he'd bump into one or two more progressive types and perhaps the place bet only represents the better value however with Atzeni set to be jocked up he's no stranger to lifting big prizes at this venue so perhaps he may just be able to coax him into the winners enclosure and make it Third time lucky.
Apologies for the tedious link but it is Third Time Lucky who catches my eye for the spring mile (although he too may squeeze in to the Lincoln but it looks doubtful) . No prices as yet but I'd expect that he'd go largely unnoticed. Since being well beaten in the Lincoln Last year he has been kept to All weather surfaces. His record on the All weather 1/13 with three, 3rd place finishes. His record on turf 5/17 with three, 2nd's and one, 3rd place finish. His last 6 efforts on turf have come off marks of 100 or over and there have been some fine efforts in defeat. 4th in the Cambridgeshire and solid very close efforts in big Ascot and York handicaps. The most disappointing effort on turf was probably in the Lincoln last year where he was off 106 and travelled far to keenly on the front end and as said in the Lincoln analysis above the front runners had gone off too fast and fell in a heap and he was the worst offender. For the most part of the winter he's looked a non jigger until the weights came out for this. He had one try in headgear where he went off like a scalded cat. However the first signs of life came in the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton where he didn't get into a good position pulled hard but finished very tidily indeed. Given that all his best form has come on straight tracks and given he's run so well at Wolverhampton with its sharp bend when not really getting the run of the race I think he might just be ripening up for this. Back here off a mark of 97 only 2lb higher than his Cambridgeshire win and 9lb lower than what he attempted the Lincoln off and first try back on turf since. Very interesting runner if they can get him settled in behind runners here and just keep a a lid on him then I fancy him to go very close at quite a price.
Just to mention that the case I've made for Donncha could quite as easily be made for Gabrial who dropped out last year (although he's made a habit of doing so) and has also eased to a workable mark. Also Last years Winner Bravery who won't make the cut this year but could quite possibly go well in the Spring Mile. Overall though I'd be a bit wary of taking last years form at face value but wouldn't be surprised to see any of the above run a big race.
I might have a more in depth look at the races once decs are out just to keep the cogs turning.
Last edited by broadsword; Today at 04:09 PM.
Saturday 24th March
The Lincoln and the Spring Mile
So I thought it best I cast my eye over these 2 races as we start to put our brains into flat mode.
The first one to catch my eye in the Lincoln from a value point of view is Donncha 25/1. Third in last years event doing all his best work at the finish but all to late...no prizes for guessing who was in the saddle on that occasion That was off a mark of 100. The year before he went even closer just being beaten a neck into second off a mark of 97 and that is the mark he will line up off on Saturday. Both times he came to the race first time out as he does this year I can see no reason why he won't run a big race again this time around. You could say last years form was slightly flattering as 3 of the first 4 home were probably the 3 back markers at the 2 pole so they'd obviously gone off too fast in front but even so Donncha should run a big race here from 3lb lower. The most likely scenario is that he'd bump into one or two more progressive types and perhaps the place bet only represents the better value however with Atzeni set to be jocked up he's no stranger to lifting big prizes at this venue so perhaps he may just be able to coax him into the winners enclosure and make it Third time lucky.
Apologies for the tedious link but it is Third Time Lucky who catches my eye for the spring mile (although he too may squeeze in to the Lincoln but it looks doubtful) . No prices as yet but I'd expect that he'd go largely unnoticed. Since being well beaten in the Lincoln Last year he has been kept to All weather surfaces. His record on the All weather 1/13 with three, 3rd place finishes. His record on turf 5/17 with three, 2nd's and one, 3rd place finish. His last 6 efforts on turf have come off marks of 100 or over and there have been some fine efforts in defeat. 4th in the Cambridgeshire and solid very close efforts in big Ascot and York handicaps. The most disappointing effort on turf was probably in the Lincoln last year where he was off 106 and travelled far to keenly on the front end and as said in the Lincoln analysis above the front runners had gone off too fast and fell in a heap and he was the worst offender. For the most part of the winter he's looked a non jigger until the weights came out for this. He had one try in headgear where he went off like a scalded cat. However the first signs of life came in the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton where he didn't get into a good position pulled hard but finished very tidily indeed. Given that all his best form has come on straight tracks and given he's run so well at Wolverhampton with its sharp bend when not really getting the run of the race I think he might just be ripening up for this. Back here off a mark of 97 only 2lb higher than his Cambridgeshire win and 9lb lower than what he attempted the Lincoln off and first try back on turf since. Very interesting runner if they can get him settled in behind runners here and just keep a a lid on him then I fancy him to go very close at quite a price.
Just to mention that the case I've made for Donncha could quite as easily be made for Gabrial who dropped out last year (although he's made a habit of doing so) and has also eased to a workable mark. Also Last years Winner Bravery who won't make the cut this year but could quite possibly go well in the Spring Mile. Overall though I'd be a bit wary of taking last years form at face value but wouldn't be surprised to see any of the above run a big race.
I might have a more in depth look at the races once decs are out just to keep the cogs turning.
Last edited by broadsword; Today at 04:09 PM.
gigilo
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Was a huge advantage to be drawn low at Donny in the Lincoln and spring mile last season,it just happens that bravery and donncha ran unbelievable races from their draws only two horses that ran well drawn near side,donnchas my cliff horse as I put it up most of the runs last season and for that Lincoln.It should've won at ascot off 100 when finished 9th was cantering and stopped in run in October 2016,looked on downgrade end of season although only had 25 runs at age of 7 could run well after a break.
Just realised another of my night shift fog mistakes I thought I'd read that third time lucky was number 35 on the list...he's number 25... doh ! Much more likely to get a run in the Lincoln but at the prices I don't mind playing both if that's the case.
Desert Orchid
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I plan to trawl the weights today but Donncha is a bit of a cliff horse for me too, especially if Atzeni rides but if he's been tempted on to another...
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The RP shows Atzeni as booked for Donncha but Zabeel Prince is in at the 5 days and if he runs AA will be claimed by Varian and Sheikh Obaid.
Desert Orchid
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Azeni rides Donncha...
Sorry if this is a bit brief but I'm a bit busy today.
Just woke up Third time lucky a NR all together so he must be being aimed elsewhere I'll have to add him to the notebook. No harm done as I haven't backed him.
I have backed Donncha and he makes the line up. Somehow Bravery has managed to squeeze in 20/1 with Ladbrokes so I've boosted that to 25's and had a slice of that pie. They are also 40's on Gabrial so took a saver on that crazy mutt.
So nothing fancy there as its the 1st, 3rd and 4th from the race last year all returning on lower marks here.
Just woke up Third time lucky a NR all together so he must be being aimed elsewhere I'll have to add him to the notebook. No harm done as I haven't backed him.
I have backed Donncha and he makes the line up. Somehow Bravery has managed to squeeze in 20/1 with Ladbrokes so I've boosted that to 25's and had a slice of that pie. They are also 40's on Gabrial so took a saver on that crazy mutt.
So nothing fancy there as its the 1st, 3rd and 4th from the race last year all returning on lower marks here.