The Lincoln

I can't have Donncha this year.

Usually i'd be thinking he's three pound lower than last season when he was third, but this renewal looks a much better race than last seasons, with horses like Lord Glitters, Fire Brigade and the Haggas horse, (whose name I cannot spell off the top of my head), surely looking to be more progressive types than the favourites last season, (Yuften and Oh This Is Us).

Cards on the table - I've been backing Fire Brigade since Monday, so hoping he can win, but Lord Glitters and the other favourite are big dangers. If Lord Glitters can defy that weight he is a very good horse.
 
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I'm not sure it is a better race. As usual a few of these are unknown quantities.

I've done my trawl and am not sure I'm any wiser!

I'll wait now until either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning and take my chances then. My problem is that I want 25/1 or bigger about something I think should be less than 10/1 and I'm struggling to identify one.
 
I'm sure at the end of this flat season Lord Glitters and Fire Brigade (and the Haggas horse) will turn out to be faster horses than Yuften and Oh This Is Us.

You are trying to back 25/1 chances that you think should be 10/1, I'm happy with my 12/1 vouchers (thanks Ladbrokes and Paddy Power for being so stupid) on Fire Brigade who is 5/1!!!!!! :)
 
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Best weighted horse in the race, based on form, is Fire Brigade. Surprised if he's not a few pound well in. 5/1 the right price and will get shorter once the lemmings join in (they always do!).
 
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Kings Gift

Has not lived up to high hopes of connections, as is a great work horse at home. Indeed its not that long since he was running in a Group 1 race.

So 33-1 appeals to me each way as I don't think this is a vintage Lincoln
 
PlaceBacker said:
So 33-1 appeals to me each way as I don't think this is a vintage Lincoln
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Makes last years look like a class 4 though, how can honestly say its not a quality renewal based on the evidence in front of you. I don't understand at all.
 
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Fair enough. You know, young Marble would be the first one searching for 25/1 value outsiders but he doesn't see many worth backing in this. The reverse combo forecast on the front three doesn't seem a bad bet to potentially maximise returns. Someone on this thread will have egg on their face by the end of this race I'm hoping its not me, haha.
 
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Marble said:
Best weighted horse in the race, based on form, is Fire Brigade.
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How did you arrive at that conclusion, Marble? It's 5lbs off the top-rated on RPRs and only 4lbs above the bottom-rated.

Marble said:
Best weighted horse in the race, based on form, is Fire Brigade. Surprised if he's not a few pound well in.
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Nearly all of them should be considered [by connections] a few pounds well in, which is why they're running :)
 
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PlaceBacker said:
Kings Gift

Has not lived up to high hopes of connections, as is a great work horse at home. Indeed its not that long since he was running in a Group 1 race.

So 33-1 appeals to me each way as I don't think this is a vintage Lincoln
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I've gone in on this one at 33/1 too. I'm working on the basis that low numbers will be favoured and he has a nice balance between the draw and high rating (on my figures).

As PlaceBacker says, he might be one of those that didn't do as well as hoped as a 3yo and might take a nice step up this season. If low draws dominate the consolation race his price could halve.
 
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Can I ask Marble if this is an info punt ? It has to be doesn't it ? I can't see anything that makes him look well handicapped.

He raced 10 times last season and won 4 which is fair enough the last of those a fairly slowly run affair at Leicester for which Bravery is 9lb better off for a couple of lengths and he eased down and certainly wasn't suited by the way the race was run. You could go with the blind argument that Fire brigade is younger and possibly has more improvement to come but that being said how do you get past something like Addyebb who beat him fair and square in the Silver Cambridgeshire and is now better off at the weights. Addyebb's profile he's run 5 times got beat on debut over 7f and got beat at one try over 10f at trips inbetween those distances he's 3/3 so not only has he beat Fire Brigade and is better off at the weights but he's also more lightly raced so would have more potential for improvement. Fire brigade has never won off the back of a break either.

Lord Glitters was fairly impressive at Ascot and I remember reading a sectional analysis which compared favourably with the group race on the card although if memory serves I though it was more of a negative for the group horses on the card than a positive for Lord Glitters. I do like him but I'd think Saturday isn't the be all and end all for him he'll have bigger targets for later in the year. When he won at Ascot he wasn't that far clear of Gabrial who re-opposes 7lb better off and with race fitness on his side. Gabrial had the worst of the draw at Ascot too and although not the most straight forward (same could be said for Lord Glitters) he is 4 times the price and at least has course form on his side.

At least with Lord Glitters and Addyebb I can see the positives although I might not like the prices I just can not fathom how Fire Brigade can be favourite unless he's absolutely working the house down at home.
 
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Wouldn't worry too much about Lord Glitter's fitness. He was bought to replace the same connections' Mondialiste, who was produced to finish a nk 2nd in the 015 Lincoln, on his first run for the stable - after a 9 month absence.
As it stands, LG is top on RPRs, top on t/s, acts on the ground, is the choice of Danny Tudhope, and has strong straight mile form in one of the most valuable handicaps ever run over the distance.
Ladbrokes 8/1 will do nicely for me, though I will also have a rfc, in case Ryan Moore does produce a rabbit out of the hat.
 
reet hard said:
As it stands, LG is top on RPRs, top on t/s, acts on the ground,
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The figures I have from the card published on Thursday have LG 3lbs off the top RPR (Donncha) and 7lbs off the top on TopSpeed (Grey Britain) so they must have adjusted them since then.

In his stable tour, O'Meara said he wasn't sure he wanted to ask LG to carry top weight in heavy ground. He also said he wasn't sure Bravery would be ready in time for the Spring Mile (so he wasn't expecting to make the cut for this).

I have no idea if he tells the truth in these stable tours...
 
I wouldn't normally be worried about Lord Glitters' fitness but you have to consider the form of the trainer too. O'Meara hasn't had a winner on the AW this calendar year, from 72 runners. With only 26 of those reaching the places.

Admittedly he's not known for his AW exploits but that has to be a worrying stat.

I'll have a saver on him in case the advent of the turf season springs the yard into life but I like the Haggas horse with a slight concern as to why Moore was seemingly so quick to jump ship to Fire Brigade.
 
Your figures are probably correct,DO, just the way they are formatted on the website.
There won't be any heavy ground tomorrow, it was 6.0 on the going stick yesterday, and looks unlikely to get softer.
 
Danny said:
Can I ask Marble if this is an info punt ? It has to be doesn't it ? I can't see anything that makes him look well handicapped.
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Sorry just seen this, Danny. Is not an info punt, no.

I looked at the race last Sunday. I cast my eye over the form. I thought Fire Brigade did everything right last season as a 3 year old. He was always on the premises at the business end of his races. To my naked eye he looked the horse that would most likely/probably end this season on a higher rating than what he starts off the season, (98), compared to everything else in his race, which is why he gets the vote.

There's every chance the first three in the betting will face off again more than once this season. It wouldn't surprise me, (in the slightest) to see them running against each other later this season off level weights in group races. For this reason, I do believe, (in theory at least), that Fire Brigade has a clear advantage on Lord Glitters because he is in receipt of nine pounds. My feeling is that Lord Glitters will have to be a Queen Anne horse, or a horse that could place in a race like the Queen Anne, to win this off 9:10.

The Haggas horse could be good too, but I prefer Fire Brigade who has had more racing experience. This is no bad thing in a race like this, because you want something that's well handicapped (which I reckon Fire Brigade is), but also had enough racing experience to deal with whatever the race throws at him. This is where Fire Brigade may have a slight advantage over the Haggas Horse, who is a bit too lightly raced or my liking.
 
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Fair enough Marble.

Just had a quick look through the Spring Mile and one that sticks out a bit is Sir Roderic at around 14/1. Rubbish season last year and been dropped massively in the handicap as a result. Has won when fresh and straight mile on soft ground seems to be ideal. Has had a wind op since he last ran, if that was the problem last term he's incredibly well handicapped if that has sorted him out, might be worth a chance on the nut as you'd think he hacks up or runs like a sack of cack.
 
50/1..let that be a warning to all and we haven't yet got the 2year olds to worry about.:lol:.......show me a 2 year old fav and I will show you a lay
 
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