The market talks

I checked that page out some time back. It went through an extended phase of no winners with lots of odds-on losers.

How often do you check it yourself, bj? Is the above more typical of your experience?

Also, that graphic has obviously been posted after racing.
 
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Does this allow for withdrawals? E.g. Just Don’t Know would never have gone off odds on if Elvia Mail hadn’t been withdrawn


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Viking - often a top market mover is just because a decent price horse(s) has been withdrawn, so all is not always at it seems.

Desert - I usually look for interest because I like to see if my trackers are being well supported (I will have already checked the price against the previous evenings early price which is the more important for me and which I use to decide whether to add or not). Can’t say I’ve seen many days pass without a couple of winners appearing in the table.

I do pay a lot of attention to the market and I hate drifters and love shorteners. A chaser of poorer value, that’s me :D
 
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Forgive me,BJ but isn't the whole concept of 'value' built around beating the sp,often by taking the price early - before it shrinks?
 
reet hard said:
Forgive me,BJ but isn't the whole concept of 'value' built around beating the sp,often by taking the price early - before it shrinks?
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Yes, that’s true. Often, though, people watch the price drift and talk about getting better value for their selection. My experience over the years is that more often than not price drifting indicates not on for it this time (although some do win, of course, usually when some other horse has been backed down unjustifiably). Thus, for me, the better price often signals worse value. Conversely, a strengthening price shows greater interest (not always by those in the know unfortunately) and an indication that the horse is up for it. Thus, for me the shorter price often signals better value. Just the way I think of value.
 
Krabat 6/1 to 11/4 not 7/4. What I would like to know where was the money put on?

Looks like it's been early money as it opened at 11/4 on course.

Most would be unaware of the gamble if it was early money which you could do with 1000 pounds

Not easy to work out what Gambles are real and which onces are cuased by one over zealous punter.

In a race like this one you could get about 5 grand or more on at 6/1 or better on the exchange if you and your trainer put everyone else away ir say it has a chance but don't have anymore than a fiver EW

Changed days and following money and getting it right gets harder by the day
 
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Tan, rightly or wrongly I assume that those sure a horse is ready to rock will snap up the early price and that camp followers will add to it as word gets around. They are not necessarily gambles, but perhaps an indication that the horse is up for it.
 
I don't want to go into details on here because 4 of the people are still very much alive.

One was the husband of a Permit Holder the other the biggest losing punter since sliced bread.

In one fell swoop they took over 1 million pounds from the bookies at lowly Sedgefield.

Only 5 people on the planet knew they were going for a touch My best friend who rode it, the Permit holder (lady with no interest in training) Her husband who was actually an on course bookie under another name, the mad punter and myself.

I actually found out but was told no betting until the money is on and only at SP

It was said of the punter if he lost 2 million by Friday that was agood week.

He could get huge money on at forecast prices because even if he won £2million quid he'd lose it the next day.
He had a huge string of horses but lost vast sums of money including £57 to £58 million on racetrack gambling

The Husband arranged with the mad punter to have 30K on at the forecast price of 33/1 then when the money was on it opened at 12/1 and he and his freind backed it down to 7/2 fav with another 30k

The horse won at Sedgefield by 30 lengths and the Husband and wife moved to the South of France where they trained for many years.

That is how you do it....If you want to land a touch on a Nicky Henderson horse you don't stop the horse or ever try to land a gamble by doing so. If you do everyone and there uncle with grab a price before you can when it's off.
Most of the higher up lads at Seven Barrows have their own punters,

Run a good horse on it's merits and when it loses it could be beacuse it scoped dirty but the bookie doesn't know that......then next time if he has shown he is well even ih a lesser race no one is going to risk too much because they don't know he scoped badly.

Stable lad tells the guys in the pub he thinks it could win and know one listens.
 
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barjon said:
Tan, rightly or wrongly I assume that those sure a horse is ready to rock will snap up the early price and that camp followers will add to it as word gets around. They are not necessarily gambles, but perhaps an indication that the horse is up for it.
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I would worry about the logic here, BJ. I suspect that for a normal race it takes only small money to move markets until quite close to the off, especially if it’s coming from significant sources. Therefore connections of a fancied one might well prefer to wait as late as possible, especially if other horses in the race are also being fancied.

And if there’s no money for other horses in the race, those placing bets on behalf of one especially large owner whom we all know might be tempted to create a few smokescreens. Sometimes a stablemate or a horse in the same colours is backed as a decoy and the real money comes later for the fancied one.

And sometimes it is bookies themselves who try to start a stampede for a particular horse.
 
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Tanlic said:
I don't want to go into details on here because 4 of the people are still very much alive.

One was the husband of a Permit Holder the other the biggest losing punter since sliced bread.

In one fell swoop they took over 1 million pounds from the bookies at lowly Sedgefield.

Only 5 people on the planet knew they were going for a touch My best friend who rode it, the Permit holder (lady with no interest in training) Her husband who was actually an on course bookie under another name, the mad punter and myself.

I actually found out but was told no betting until the money is on and only at SP

It was said of the punter if he lost 2 million by Friday that was agood week.

He could get huge money on at forecast prices because even if he won £2million quid he'd lose it the next day.
He had a huge string of horses but lost vast sums of money including £57 to £58 million on racetrack gambling

The Husband arranged with the mad punter to have 30K on at the forecast price of 33/1 then when the money was on it opened at 12/1 and he and his freind backed it down to 7/2 fav with another 30k

The horse won at Sedgefield by 30 lengths and the Husband and wife moved to the South of France where they trained for many years.

That is how you do it....If you want to land a touch on a Nicky Henderson horse you don't stop the horse or ever try to land a gamble by doing so. If you do everyone and there uncle with grab a price before you can when it's off.
Most of the higher up lads at Seven Barrows have their own punters,

Run a good horse on it's merits and when it loses it could be beacuse it scoped dirty but the bookie doesn't know that......then next time if he has shown he is well even ih a lesser race no one is going to risk too much because they don't know he scoped badly.

Stable lad tells the guys in the pub he thinks it could win and know one listens.
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Lovely story, tan. ‘Course, if anyone had followed the money they would have done ok without knowing anything about the plot.
 
Grey said:
I would worry about the logic here, BJ. I suspect that for a normal race it takes only small money to move markets until quite close to the off, especially if it’s coming from significant sources. Therefore connections of a fancied one might well prefer to wait as late as possible, especially if other horses in the race are also being fancied.

And if there’s no money for other horses in the race, those placing bets on behalf of one especially large owner whom we all know might be tempted to create a few smokescreens. Sometimes a stablemate or a horse in the same colours is backed as a decoy and the real money comes later for the fancied one.

And sometimes it is bookies themselves who try to start a stampede for a particular horse.
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Absolutely, grey, if the route was clearly signposted we’d all be millionaires :). However, I think it is reasonable to assume that if a horse is ready to rock then money is likely to come for it, even from a non-betting stable, as word gets around. I also think it is reasonable to assume that those in the know will want to get a decent price, which is likely to be the early one. I’m not advocating just using market action to make selections, though. In my case I’ve already made the selection, but the market action does indicate how hard I will pursue it.
 
Unfancied on course Clay Rogers drifted from 12/1 to 18/1 but was backed from 75 down to 24 on the machine so someone had a nice touch
 
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