The Mullins accies

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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Min!!!!! Oh my gawd where does he get these machines?

ok he was 1/7 but he looked like 1/20 would have been value.

I assume Alan King will be seriously thinking about sending Yanworth for the Neptune after that.

Looks like we are to be treated to another opportunity to skin the bookies with a 5/6 horse accumulator.

Last year Annie Power beat a lot of us for a huge payout for semi huge money which horse will it be this year if any.

At current prices the most likely winners for the yard are

The Supreme Hurdle: Min 7/4

The Arkle : Douvan 8/11

The Champion Hurdle : Faugheen 8/13

The Mares: Annie Power 1/1

The QMCC: Un De Sceaux 7/4

The Ryanair: Vautour 7/4

$100 acc. nets you a cool $11,605.53 which you could have running on to Djakadam at 4/1 if you are really looking for luckies.


Remove Vautour as he has several options and you are still talking a 41/1 accumulator.

Which horse could be the one if any to let the 41/1 acc?

Min: Hasn't beaten much but looks every bit as good, if not better, as Douvan did last year (90% Chance he's a Winner)

Douvan: Awesome performance in the Supreme but Lami Serge didn't show his true form that day. The NJH novice really looked the business in his only run over fences. Must be a possible danger (75% Winner)

Faugheen: No doubting he is very good but Arctic Fire got a bit too close to him last year and the big question must be are there potentially better horses around this year?. Peace and Co is probably the only possible alternative and Faugheen might just end up a sitting duck. Not convinced Faugheen is the new Istabraq but very hard to oppose unless something happens very soon to change my mind (85% Chance he's a winner)

Annie: She'll win doing handstands if she is right on the day. Can't see a danger unless they have added 6 inches to the height of the last to catch her out again (95% winner)

Un De Sceaux : He's probably the most over rated horse in the Mullins yard. They have done an amazing job in placing him to win more than a few hurdle races and all 4 of his completed chases. However when you look at his Arkle win it was not the push all the buttons even most expected. He ended up slowing down so much over the last 4 fences even the ordinary Gods Own looked like he was going to peg him back. If he goes off like a bat out of hell again and Sprinter does his 4 out to 3 out gear changes UDS won't know what's hit him even if the champ is 10lbs below his best UDS has it all to do. He does have youth on his side and that is a major plus but not enough to convince me he should be so short. (60% Chance)

Un De Sceaux for me is the most likely to let the punters down so my alternative would be.

Min 7/4
Douvan 8/11
Faugheen 8/13
Annie Power 1/1
Un De Sceaux 7/4

$100 acc. 41/1


Min 7/4
Douvan 8/11
Faugheen 8/13
Annie Power 1/1
Sprinter Sacre 4/1

$100 75/1

Which would you omit or add a 2nd selection to?
 
Tanlic said:
Min: Hasn't beaten much but looks every bit as good, if not better, as Douvan did last year (90% Chance he's a Winner)
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More like a 40% chance according to the bookies and a similar thing applies to the others; Douvan and Faugheen c. 60%, Annie 50%, UDS 40%.

But back to your question...

I'd agree with Un De Sceaux, and along with Min, are the most likely losers to my eye. UDS has to sort out his jumping and while he was fine in the Arkle, the QMCC will be more competetive. Even if he does stand up he'll have a couple of past winnners recently returning to something like their best form to beat and it Nicky can get Sprinter back to 90% of his previous then UDS won't see which way he went.

I'm maybe being biased in my view of Min as unlike the past couple of years I didn't take a punt prior to his debut when odds of c. 10/1 were being advertised - maybe because having struck lucky with Vautor a couple of years back I got my fingers burnt AP with the unfortunate Allez Colombieres last year. But even so, while I can understand the bookies currently running scared (he will absolutely be bigger on the day than he is now) I cannot justify backing him at his current odds.
But that's partly because I am a huge fan of Buveur Dair and personally feel that what he did to Wait For Me at Newbury is better than anything Min has acheived. There's a chance he's best suited to soft going but the worst the ground will be on the frst day is Good-Soft and there's more chance of it riding slow than fast based on recent years and who knows when this constant rain is due to relent.

So for me; Faugheen, Douvan and Annie day one treble is where I'd draw the line but I've been chipping away at Douvan for a while - and have bits and pieces here and there on Faugheen at around 6/4 so I'll happily settle for singles and get as much as I can on Annie - odds permitting - when I'm sure she'll line up on the Tuesday (am slightly of the thought that it could be Vroum Vroum Mag).

In the unlikely event Vautour was routed to the Ryanair then he'd make up the four timer.
 
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No he's got a 90% chance of winning compared to Faugheen having a 85% chance in my opinion. Got nothing to do with making a book or what percentage of the odds available are related to.

The way Min attacked his hurdles the other day, pulling Rub's arms out all the way round and gaining 2 and 3 lengths with every jump was scary. Plus despite running so free he took virtually nothing out of himself and quickened effortlessly.

Min has all the making of a future Champion, make no mistake about that and I am sick as a parrot because I backed Yanworth ante post
 
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The important thing is to avoid being greedy. If you're looking at, say, a fourfold, a little maths will work out a formula where any one of 4 trebles will get your stake back. Somewhere I posted last autumn when I did a speculative fourfold of Faugheen (11/10), UDS (11/8), Douvan (5/2) and Vautour (GC 5/1). For every £10 on the fourfold even 4 x £1 trebles will still make a profit if one goes down. If two go down then you just have to accept that you were wrong and move on.
The other way I'm thinking of going is to pick 2 bankers (probably Min and Douvan at this stage) and look at trebles with the likes of Shaneshill and Pont Alexandre.
 
i'd steer clear of faugheen and douvan purely from a price perspective. the bookies tend to get competitive and look to 'get one' and i'm hoping we get 2/1+ for min on or around the day but after last year they might just run a mile.
 
I was one of those who lost out on a really tidy return from a fourfold when Annie Power crashed out of her race.

The thing was, on the morning of the race, because the Cheltenham morning markets are so competitive, the four were probably all value prices relative to their true chances. Multiply that value in a fourfold and you have a really attractive bet.

Of course they all need to win but they were all genuinely expected to do so and AP would have bar that fall. Such is life. Such is racing. Such is betting.

Coming back to Min, speaking as someone who fancies Altior very strongly, the most impressive thing about him for me the other day was the ride he got. This was a no-messing ride. They probably needed to know he could travel at Cheltenham pace and set about ensuring it. I'm not convinced he had as much in the tank at the end as it looked but he was visually impressive although I doubt the form amounts to anything within 10lbs of what Altior achieved at Kempton.
 
Have a boner for Altior as well. Not backed him yet and Min scares me but I kind of like him more for the Arkle next year if anything.
 
I doubt the form amounts to anything within 10lbs of what Altior achieved at Kempton.

really DO?

bear in mind i posted my view of Altior's Ascot win in December on OHR forum..and rated him 152 then..still waiting for the 2nd horse there to pay me back...so i really rate Altior as a serious animal..then he confirmed that since at Kempton..but Min is in front of him on my calcs

Altior had to have some serious pressure applied turning in at kempton..the response was amazing fair enough
 
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I had already backed Altior a/p before reading last week's article by Paul Kealy.

He had arrived at the same conclusion as me, quoting RPRs.

It was something along the lines of:

Altior's RPR for Kempton is higher than anything Champagne Fever, Douvan or Faugheen had achieved at the same stage of the season and within 6lbs of the best RPR achieved by them in the Supreme.

I reckon Min probably ran somewhere alongside those three the other day but I haven't done any figures yet.

My rating for Altior at Kempton is a bit higher than RPRs. And I expect him to be much better suited by Cheltenham than Kempton.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had already backed Altior a/p before reading last week's article by Paul Kealy.

He had arrived at the same conclusion as me, quoting RPRs.

It was something along the lines of:

Altior's RPR for Kempton is higher than anything Champagne Fever, Douvan or Faugheen had achieved at the same stage of the season and within 6lbs of the best RPR achieved by them in the Supreme.

I reckon Min probably ran somewhere alongside those three the other day but I haven't done any figures yet.

My rating for Altior at Kempton is a bit higher than RPRs. And I expect him to be much better suited by Cheltenham than Kempton.
Click to expand...

Altior struggled to beat an injured Ferguson horse last time at Cheltenham. I wouldn't be getting that hard about him.
 
Include Min in the acca and then back Altior with the inevitable Paddypower money back offer. Easy.
 
Digger said:
Altior struggled to beat an injured Ferguson horse last time at Cheltenham. I wouldn't be getting that hard about him.
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On that run, I'd have to agree. It wasn't anything special in terms of the margin of victory or rating achieved but I wouldn't rush to blame the course.

He's a smashing big specimen of a horse with a beautiful stride that will be well suited to the demands of the Supreme much more than the way the Kempton race unfolded.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had already backed Altior a/p before reading last week's article by Paul Kealy.

He had arrived at the same conclusion as me, quoting RPRs.

It was something along the lines of:

Altior's RPR for Kempton is higher than anything Champagne Fever, Douvan or Faugheen had achieved at the same stage of the season and within 6lbs of the best RPR achieved by them in the Supreme.

I reckon Min probably ran somewhere alongside those three the other day but I haven't done any figures yet.

My rating for Altior at Kempton is a bit higher than RPRs. And I expect him to be much better suited by Cheltenham than Kempton.
Click to expand...

I've just checked RPRs:

Altior @ Kempton 154
Min the other day 152

CF's best before the Supreme 150
Douvan's " " " 149
Faugheeen's " " Neptune 149

So RPRs do already rate Min better than them, which is clearly a big compliment... but they rate Altior better.

One was 3/1 before that figure was posted.
One was 8/1 after that figure was posted.

Which was the better bet?
 
DO

Check out Double Island..beaten 2.25 by Open eagle receiving 8lb ...Open Eagle beaten 13 by Altior..that makes Double Island 24 less than Altior.

Min beat Double Island "easily" by 21..could have been more ridden out if Min isn't a bridle ponce.

So i don't see..just on form ratings..how Min is 10lb behind Altior.

going on to time ratings...Min is out in front of Altiors Kempton run by a good few lengths
 
Diamond Geezer said:
All you Mullins groupies depress me, grow some balls and find some "value" elsewhere :whistle::lol:
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you seem to have a real bee in your bonnet about this value thing don't you DG? get over it.

i don't give a fig about who trains what..and as far as Altior is concened..i was on it before anyone else even spotted it..but Min is another beast
 
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EC1 said:
DO

Check out Double Island..beaten 2.25 by Open eagle receiving 8lb ...Open Eagle beaten 13 by Altior..that makes Double Island 24 less than Altior.

Min beat Double Island "easily" by 21..could have been more ridden out if Min isn't a bridle ponce.

So i don't see..just on form ratings..how Min is 10lb behind Altior.

going on to time ratings...Min is out in front of Altiors Kempton run by a good few lengths
Click to expand...

Obviously there's a bigger picture involved just going by RPRs.

Why would RPRs rate Open Eagle 7lbs higher at Kempton than when he beat Double Island?

And why would they rate Ball D'Arc 15lbs higher the other day behind Min than in his previous race?
 
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i don't really care about RPR's that much DO..i use them as examples as i know people do look at them..when it comes to deciding in my own mind which horse looks better than which..i use my own figures..i know where they come from
 
EC1 said:
i don't really care about RPR's that much DO..i use them as examples as i know people do look at them..when it comes to deciding in my own mind which horse looks better than which..i use my own figures..i know where they come from
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Yes, I know, and you know how much I respect your opinions.

I'm quoting RPRs for the sake of the others reading this thread and trying to make sense of it! :)

My own figures are different again. Maybe come Wednesday I'll end up with a higher mark for Min but I already know my mark for Altior would have won most of the last 10 or 20 Supremes. I couldn't have said that about Champagne Fever, Douvan or Faugheen [at this stage of the season].

One thing you and I tend to agree on is what it takes to win certain races and when we come across one with the right kind of figure we know we're on to something!
 
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ok DO

DG

why don't you just spit out what your problem is eh?....don't arse about with snidey "thanks"..get it off your chest..you obviously have some issue with that value hunt thread..so spell it out
 
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