The Mullins accies

Grey said:
Take Cue Card's Cheltenham champion bumper win as an example. No matter how many times they ran the race he would have won it almost every time because, as we now know, he was clearly the best horse in it.
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Before the race we're only dealing with probabilities.

After the race we have certainty.

That's why it's difficult to imagine a different result.

After the race we know what circumstances brought about the result. We didn't know those circumstances beforehand, although some people are genuinely gifted at anticipating what might happen.
 
SlimChance said:
Its pretty simple. If you don't have information that is not factored into the prices than you need to be better at evaluating a horses chance than the market to make a long term profit.

If anyone on here keeps records and does not monitor their bets against the Betfair SP than they need to start doing so now.
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lets just leave it then...not bother...i've got plenty to keep me busy without bothering with it....just thought it might be interesting..
 
I find EC1 thread interesting and am sure there's something I can learn from it.

I can't speak with much authority on this though I'm afraid.
However, It seems to me Grey is absolutely right, but in a more common sense and possibly scientific way....

The approach used by EC1 (shown on the relevant thread) is just cold hard maths.

Neither approach makes it significantly easier to win on racing, but vice versa I don't think you are more likely to lose on it either, imho.


Good discussion though.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I certainly don't and to be honest I'm not sure what benefit I would derive from doing so?
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You come at things from a different angle but let me dig out my favourite winner you put up this year.

You put up Muhaarar as a 2pt win at Royal Ascot. That's a strong bet for you. I can't remember the best price available that morning but I know I took 12/1 e/w with an extra place.

Betfair SP
14.74

Betfair Place SP
3.85

For €100 e/w you're expected win is -€7.90 is you believe the Betfair price is efficient.
For €100 e/w with an extra place I'd calculate that your expected win is +€27

Now these are all theoretical calculations but they are based on very strong logic. Its very useful took at your expected win versus the Betfair SP over a big sample size of bets to help you understand any leaks in your betting.

I might just add that I'm neither a forms student nor a math freak. From my experience you make the most money by mixing the two. That's why I seek out the best judges to help me place my bets.
 
SlimChance said:
I might just add that I'm neither a forms student nor a math freak. From my experience you make the most money by mixing the two. That's why I seek out the best judges to help me place my bets.
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If the 'best judges' exist in the public domain let us know. I'm sure a few of us who enjoy a bet would like to know, cheers.
 
marble said:
I find EC1 thread interesting and am sure there's something I can learn from it.

I can't speak with much authority on this though I'm afraid.
However, It seems to me Grey is absolutely right, but in a more common sense and possibly scientific way....

The approach used by EC1 (shown on the relevant thread) is just cold hard maths.

Neither approach makes it significantly easier to win on racing, but vice versa I don't think you are more likely to lose on it either, imho.


Good discussion though.
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I think Grey's point example shows that these markets do not have all the information at the off. If they did a horse like Cue Card would have been 7/2 for that bumper. That is the beauty of betting. The markets are only efficient at calculating a horses true chance when all things are known. In racing that is almost never the case.

My favourite example is Casamento. He ended up rated 119. The other highest rating from that maiden was 103. So despite hi having a stone in hand on ability he was sent off 12.5 on Betfair. Clearly this did not reflect the horses ability and shows the power of having unique information.
 
marble said:
If the 'best judges' exist in the public domain let us know. I'm sure a few of us who enjoy a bet would like to know, cheers.
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They all around you on here and on the internet. If you can't see it you can't be helped.
 
Desert Orchid said:
From that day's analysis:



I take it that means I beat the Betfair SP?

That's good, isn't it?
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Excellent. Thanks for checking. I've mentioned it to you before that I'm certain that you beat the market long term, you just don't track it.

So lets look at the 14/1 against BSP.

For €100 e/w your expected win was €18.64 at standard place terms.
With an extra place it increases to €58.01

What bookmaker in their right mind would want to lay you 14/1 e/w even at standard place terms in the long run? The answer is none.
 
SlimChance said:
I think Grey's point example shows that these markets do not have all the information at the off. If they did a horse like Cue Card would have been 7/2 for that bumper. That is the beauty of betting. The markets are only efficient at calculating a horses true chance when all things are known. In racing that is almost never the case.

My favourite example is Casamento. He ended up rated 119. The other highest rating from that maiden was 103. So despite hi having a stone in hand on ability he was sent off 12.5 on Betfair. Clearly this did not reflect the horses ability and shows the power of having unique information.
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This post I would accept as accurate and quite pertinent. Trainer talk doesn't help sometimes in relation to freedom of information.
We have a democracy and boy do people in powerful positions like to talk shite to protect the top end of the pyramid. :)
 
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SlimChance said:
What do you want to bet on? Give me an example?
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Racing racing racing. LOL. Especially want to know the word from Irish stables when targeting U.K races.
You are good but you post too rarely, or maybe I just don't put enough on when you do post.
Good luck anyway, anyone who tries to win on sports betting is a good egg, and god does love triers!
 
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SlimChance said:
With extra places your hand is forced! I did e/w multiples on your selections all year and did more than well!
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Good to know :)

Yes, if the price is quite big and there's an extra place or two on offer I'm more likely to go ew (eg Firebird Flyer @ 28/1 the other day) and if there are two such races in one day I'm more likely to back the ew double.

(Of course, in my opinion that day at Ascot, places were going to be irrelevant :lol:)
 
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marble said:
Racing racing racing. LOL. Especially want to know the word from Irish stables when targeting U.K races.
You are good but you post too rarely, or maybe I just don't put enough on when you do post.
Good luck anyway dude, anyone who tries to win on sports betting is a good egg, and god does love triers!
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If I posted everything I knew I would stop hearing things! I throw a bone every now and again when I can.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good to know :)

Yes, if the price is quite big and there's an extra place or two on offer I'm more likely to go ew (eg Firebird Flyer @ 28/1 the other day) and if there are two such races in one day I'm more likely to back the ew double.
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But even at 8/1 e/w you can be getting 2/1 about something that is 6/4 to place. You can compound the errors in multiples. For the festival you should set aside a small pot of money to do e/w lucky 15s and accas on your selections with firms paying extra places and 1/4 the odds and see how you get on. You might surprise yourself.
 
SlimChance said:
If I posted everything I knew I would stop hearing things! I throw a bone every now and again when I can.
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Understood. A fella like you would be good for me when winning four figure sums on dog racing, and not knowing what to stick half the winnings on.

I'll PM you on one of those days, and you can expect a small cheque payable to you as a good will deed if you happen alert me to a winner. :)
 
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SlimChance said:
But even at 8/1 e/w you can be getting 2/1 about something that is 6/4 to place. You can compound the errors in multiples. For the festival you should set aside a small pot of money to do e/w lucky 15s and accas on your selections with firms paying extra places and 1/4 the odds and see how you get on. You might surprise yourself.
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As you know, I sometimes check the place-only markets when I'm interested in outsiders I think can run a lot better than their odds but which I really can't see winning.

Getting 8/1 place-only about a 33/1 shot appeals to me a lot more than an each-way bet (assuming I really don't think it can win) and I've been known to land the occasional double if there's more than one on the same day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As you know, I sometimes check the place-only markets when I'm interested in outsiders I think can run a lot better than their odds but which I really can't see winning.

Getting 8/1 place-only about a 33/1 shot appeals to me a lot more than an each-way bet (assuming I really don't think it can win) and I've been known to land the occasional double if there's more than one on the same day.
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There is nothing wrong with your approach but if that 33/1 shot that can't win is going off shorter than 9.25 to place than you are leaving some money on table over the year by not including it in e/w multiples.
 
I don't like throwing away the win portion of the bet!

That's why I'll root about for another decent place-only price to stick in what effectively becomes a win double.

EG a £100 ew dble at 33/1 & 16/1 will pay (1/4 odds) £4625, ie 22/1-ish overall.
A £200 place-only double at 8/1 and 4/1 will pay £9000, ie the full 44/1 (and I don't have to worry about whether they'll actually win!)

I find this more difficult to achieve when they're going 4 places, though, unless the fields are very big.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I don't like throwing away the win portion of the bet!

That's why I'll root about for another decent place-only price to stick in what effectively becomes a win double.

EG a £100 ew dble at 33/1 & 16/1 will pay (1/4 odds) £4625, ie 22/1-ish overall.
A £200 place-only double at 8/1 and 4/1 will pay £9000, ie the full 44/1 (and I don't have to worry about whether they'll actually win!)

I find this more difficult to achieve when they're going 4 places, though, unless the fields are very big.
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In extra place races the 33/1 and 8/1 shot will probably be trading 6.2 and 2.70 respectively to place in the 5. You can write off the win part in your head but in the long run the two of them will win a certain amount of times. Compounding the place value in e/w multiples is the best part of the Cheltenham and Royal Ascot festivals.
 
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JamesRB said:
i also remember a man on the train home telling anyone who would listen that ruby made annie fall on purpose to "save the bookies"

with a straight face
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Better than that James; I saw Ruby have a drink with Paddy Power at Irish Guineas meeting.
Had I been a conspiracy theorist.........
I did a trixie on WPM first three winners leaving out Annie as I thought her price too short if any of the four got beaten; suffice to say a £3 stake yielded £78 or so .
 
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